World Politics · resolved market
Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39b1997494b2e001ec1459e601732ded33809b609b396e902dca392f8ea82358
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,283,009
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,283,009 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 141 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd61e…c34fbacked No | 0c | 258,346$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb413…1cb7backed No | 1c | 67,227$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.1 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c3…1d43backed No | 1c | 51,921$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 10c | 39,239$3,834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,834.03 | 83 | 21.7%18 W · 65 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67ac…edf1backed No | 14c | 38,315$5,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,330.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed No | 0c | 17,166$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.35 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…ba97backed No | 15c | 17,025$2,524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,524.01 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked No | 4c | 16,090$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.5 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d9…6c00backed No | 0c | 12,905$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.22 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60f8…0e10backed No | 0c | 10,778$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb6…73d1backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…15a6backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked No | 0c | 9,220$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.88 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d4…6dddbacked No | 34c | 8,617$2,937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,937.06 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0a…8c6cbacked No | 4c | 6,485$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…68e3backed No | 3c | 6,143$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x800e…01a5backed No | 2c | 6,033$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed No | 1c | 5,816$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.6 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x134f…f836backed No | 4c | 5,632$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.35 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bd…59cebacked No | 1c | 5,227$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12d5…f0ebbacked Yes | 78c | 4,982$3,861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,120.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x154e…911fbacked No | 1c | 4,286$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf603…82f1backed No | 18c | 4,000$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.89 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -59%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01b…c208backed No | 0c | 3,750$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 4c | 3,447$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.24 | 121 | 33.1%40 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a6e…30a4backed No | 1c | 3,155$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0108…3b9abacked No | 1c | 2,834$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 8c | 2,596$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.93 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea89…26abbacked No | 1c | 2,552$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 3c | 2,439$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.83 | 160 | 29.4%47 W · 113 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 2c | 2,050$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | -11.0wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 68c | 2,000$1,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed No | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +285.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked No | 4c | 1,997$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.33 | 159 | 32.7%52 W · 107 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +102.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6c…eb44backed Yes | 76c | 1,939$1,476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.41 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed No | 9c | 1,747$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 35 | 5.7%2 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 19cpaid | -88.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked No | 5c | 1,683$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.65 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb52f…954fbacked No | 1c | 1,577$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x209c…9979backed No | 1c | 1,569$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed No | 4c | 1,502$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.09 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…468cbacked No | 18c | 1,469$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.28 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5795…30fabacked No | 4c | 1,463$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.71 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7371…cadebacked Yes | 77c | 1,350$1,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd245…2318backed No | 2c | 1,345$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 22c | 1,281$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$998.32 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes | 76c | 1,267$957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.34 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 5c | 1,219$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.04 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked No | 8c | 1,176$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.55 | 227 | 25.1%57 W · 170 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed No | 3c | 1,071$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 77c | 1,014$784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.05 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf8…0657backed No | 60c | 971$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.66 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…cebcbacked No | 2c | 905.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2c…dc30backed Yes | 29c | 876.75$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.27 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31c5…ede4backed No | 4c | 828.41$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f76…1d92backed No | 21c | 822.99$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.55 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa349…a150backed No | 3c | 821.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3332…89b6backed No | 3c | 815.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c5…66e8backed No | 3c | 813.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc48d…c398backed No | 3c | 809.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40ab…92d8backed No | 3c | 804.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3cd…1afabacked No | 3c | 802.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…2a52backed No | 3c | 797.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -66%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6130…f1edbacked No | 3c | 794.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe316…1766backed No | 3c | 767.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90b8…8665backed No | 2c | 739.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcae5…6e29backed Yes | 20c | 687.43$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 36cpaid | +135.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked Yes | 34c | 600$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.3 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0330…eb8fbacked Yes | 55c | 596$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.74 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00e7…7b58backed No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x149b…d435backed No | 3c | 447.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31c4…622fbacked No | 3c | 446.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f23fbacked Yes | 3c | 427.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.33 | 182 | 14.8%27 W · 155 L | +11.4wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +218.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44ac…dc9ebacked Yes | 52c | 417.37$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.12 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe641…abd3backed No | 4c | 400.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04dd…d3dfbacked Yes | 80c | 400$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87d6…d1e7backed No | 11c | 400$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 73c | 399.99$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.6 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…19febacked No | 4c | 392.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6560…e164backed No | 8c | 392.16$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.64 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 29cpaid | +102.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1430…967ebacked No | 3c | 362.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce65…66fdbacked Yes | 40c | 328$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.14 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff0c…36eebacked Yes | 40c | 327$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed No | 5c | 323.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e7c…5a5fbacked Yes | 40c | 316$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc63…427abacked Yes | 79c | 300.03$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.01 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3a…9e14backed Yes | 66c | 300$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.3 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…21b4backed No | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked Yes | 4c | 269.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.93 | 150 | 22.7%34 W · 116 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +43%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c00…0332backed Yes | 74c | 269$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.92 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 5c | 260.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 121 | 29.8%36 W · 85 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dee…c8d1backed No | 57c | 247.34$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 67c | 235.12$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.25 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8420…6183backed No | 15c | 226.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 23c | 217.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.56 | 261 | 39.8%104 W · 157 L | +16.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 43c | 201.31$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.22 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9a…f3bbbacked Yes | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +472.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 63c | 178.6$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.59 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33ac…a435backed No | 7c | 163.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +246.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e6…45f8backed Yes | 17c | 149.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.89 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 27cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 67c | 149.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.07 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?this page
- Will AfD win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?No won
- Will FDP win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?No won
- Will The Greens win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.