World Politics · resolved market
Will AfD win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa67ef12131c084b460f36f4253226c4f2ebaa88cb991822cf2aea0dbe5577a4c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $95,949
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,949 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x82cf…0998backed Yes | 0c | 5,955$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 2c | 5,721$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.7 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked Yes | 2c | 5,411$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.95 | 227 | 25.1%57 W · 170 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b52…8a4fbacked Yes | 20c | 5,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.99 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 2c | 2,252$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf72c…eeb7backed Yes | 2c | 2,222$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.22 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x978e…80bcbacked Yes | 8c | 2,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.73 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 1,743$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 134 | 4.5%6 W · 128 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe433…607cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,650$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbea2…f8f3backed Yes | 12c | 1,616$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.44 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62ba…569bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,504$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.03 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb831…892bbacked Yes | 7c | 1,312$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.44 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,306$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.46 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa91e…e4b9backed Yes | 2c | 1,286$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b0…d650backed No | 78c | 1,284$995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.61 | 75 | 70.7%53 W · 22 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x612f…aa53backed Yes | 6c | 1,276$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.92 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd523…032dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,239$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 1,176$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.66 | 234 | 4.3%10 W · 224 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bd…1469backed Yes | 2c | 1,103$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 53c | 1,005$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.4 | 83 | 21.7%18 W · 65 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea9…dd75backed Yes | 2c | 973.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…ba97backed Yes | 11c | 957.78$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.41 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe361…bf48backed Yes | 2c | 947.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…5fc3backed Yes | 2c | 875$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a8a…15e1backed Yes | 2c | 844.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 5c | 750$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 135 | 7.4%10 W · 125 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 20c | 672.97$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.59 | 156 | 50%78 W · 78 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcec3…3aa8backed Yes | 9c | 672.24$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cb…38ebbacked Yes | 3c | 626.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc6…fb3ebacked Yes | 4c | 621.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 3c | 616.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 150 | 14%21 W · 129 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f55…4731backed Yes | 4c | 507.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 3c | 479.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34fc…d14dbacked Yes | 25c | 430$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48c6…d483backed Yes | 5c | 423.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd238…e3a5backed Yes | 5c | 399.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3af9…2cdbbacked No | 75c | 365$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf015…ff3dbacked Yes | 4c | 339.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e6…45f8backed Yes | 5c | 320$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 27cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc528…a9d0backed Yes | 4c | 313.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1220…741abacked No | 75c | 282$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 6c | 278.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5c9…daa3backed Yes | 4c | 275$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…9c75backed Yes | 9c | 269.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x864a…9ed1backed Yes | 12c | 260$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x443c…0676backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 235.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaae6…3d05backed Yes | 25c | 217$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5651…66a6backed Yes | 39c | 208.04$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.89 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce0…b2ffbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc57…753bbacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d8d…e00dbacked Yes | 30c | 164.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 20c | 141.12$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd47…805abacked No | 79c | 126.58$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.06 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked Yes | 21c | 119$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 150 | 22.7%34 W · 116 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +43%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x744e…2ef0backed Yes | 23c | 100.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacc…0dc6backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1e71…39cebacked Yes | 31c | 64.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0748…103bbacked Yes | 22c | 62.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x093b…f38bbacked Yes | 35c | 57.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 53c | 44.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 142 | 50%71 W · 71 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AfD win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?this page
- Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?Yes won
- Will FDP win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?No won
- Will The Greens win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.