TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6b52…8a4f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
99
Categories scored
6
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: World Politics, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 52 out of 100; worst Us Politics at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST5521.8%12 W · 43 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
F1 — the 55 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$1,800Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$1,799.98
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$2,400Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+316.7%+$7,599.88
Will Max Verstappen finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$820Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+480.4%+$3,938.31
Will Max Verstappen finish third in the 2025 F1 Drivers Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$1,650Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$1,650
Will Lando Norris finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$23.14
Will Oscar Piastri finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$60.91
Will George Russell finish third in the 2025 F1 Drivers Championship?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$740Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST+35.1%+$260
Will Charles Leclerc finish fourth in the 2025 F1 Drivers Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$450Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST-100%-$449.99
Will Red Bull have the highest constructor score at the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$90
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$140
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Belgian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$282Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$282.45
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Belgian Grand Prix?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$320Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$320
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Belgian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Belgian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$94
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Belgian Sprint Race?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2025, EDT+156.4%+$94.9
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2025, EDT+354.5%+$50.7
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 British Grand Prix?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$660Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2025, EDT+51.5%+$340
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Austrian Grand Prix pole?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$180
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Austrian Grand Prix pole?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$240
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 Canadian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$150
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 Canadian Grand Prix?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$640Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2025, EDT+56.2%+$359.99
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 Spanish Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$270Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$270
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 Spanish Grand Prix?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$470Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$469.99
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 Spanish Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$110
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 Spanish GP pole?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$132.31
Showing 25 of 55 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 22, 2026, EDT2030%6 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-33.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will AfD win the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$499.99
Will AfD win the second most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$999.99
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$482Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$481.96
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$1,690Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,690
Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$680Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$320
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$690Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$310
Will Trump call Carney a "Governor" before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$570Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$430
Will Olaf Scholz be the next Chancellor of Germany?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$468Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$467.79
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$5,376Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$5,375.66
Will Mark Carney talk to Trump by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$48
Will The Left make it into the Bundestag as a Fraktion?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$225Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$224.65
Will the CDU/CSU win by 8-10%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$280Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$280
Will the CDU/CSU win by 6-8%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT+150%+$600
Will the CDU/CSU win 30-35% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$329Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$329.12
BSW wins 5% or more of vote in German election? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$169Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$168.8
Will the SPD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$227Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT+120.3%+$273
Will the AfD win between 22% and 24% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$240
Will the SPD win 10-15% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$320Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$320
Will the AfD win between 20% and 22% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$260Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT+284.6%+$740
Will the AfD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$23
All 20 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1711.8%2 W · 15 L-2.2wins-0.13per pick25cpaid-66.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump visit France in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$960Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$959.99
Will Donald Trump visit Russia in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$380Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$380
Will Donald Trump visit Ukraine in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$280Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$280
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$560Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+257.1%+$1,439.99
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$2,430Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,430
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$228Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$228
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$950Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$950
Will Bill Gates be named in Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$49
Will Justin Trudeau be named in Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
Will Bill Clinton be named in Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$49
Will Al Gore be named in Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$24
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$19
Will Leonardo DiCaprio be named in Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$24
Will Donald Trump issue 15-19 executive orders in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$370Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$369.99
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$2,234Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,233.8
Will Trump reduce or pause tariffs on Switzerland before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2025, EDT+108.3%+$50.7
Will Trump meet with Putin or Zelenskyy first?backed Putin · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST-100%-$12.46
All 17 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved May 7, 2025, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-51.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$31
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.