World Politics · resolved market
Will the SPD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8ba3e5e0f4b9900c243b345bdde8b36af746ed856ec284c8960f8127acd443b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $701,243
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $810,848
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $701,243 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,176 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd122…4e82backed No | 0c | 36,215$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa068…6b89backed No | 1c | 34,536$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x561d…4912backed No | 1c | 29,300$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 59c | 22,191$13,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,089.1 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 55c | 21,986$12,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,946.79 | 118 | 53.4%63 W · 55 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed No | 0c | 12,500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 59c | 10,300$6,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,260.97 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 57c | 10,000$5,749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,250.52 | 121 | 33.1%40 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked No | 39c | 6,274$2,466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,465.92 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 56c | 6,170$3,469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,701.07 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 16c | 5,975$936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$935.54 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 6c | 5,163$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.71 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 57c | 4,634$2,649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,984.19 | 160 | 29.4%47 W · 113 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 44c | 4,084$1,793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,793.48 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked No | 46c | 3,862$1,765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,765.19 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77a1…de3dbacked Yes | 63c | 3,786$2,381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,404.58 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d8…a0a6backed Yes | 57c | 3,761$2,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,631.05 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b69…0cdebacked Yes | 60c | 3,659$2,182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,477.33 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa613…d494backed Yes | 61c | 3,499$2,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,364.49 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked No | 40c | 3,378$1,351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,351.21 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 3c | 3,000$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…e56fbacked Yes | 60c | 2,985$1,789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,196.28 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed No | 43c | 2,973$1,279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,278.57 | 97 | 21.6%21 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked Yes | 49c | 2,912$1,433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,478.93 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2c…dc30backed Yes | 67c | 2,669$1,785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$884.43 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 57c | 2,586$1,486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,099.56 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06ac…1af2backed Yes | 65c | 2,565$1,675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$889.91 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed Yes | 61c | 2,000$1,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780.12 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 20c | 1,954$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.76 | 166 | 12.7%21 W · 145 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 56c | 1,859$1,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$816.55 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 49c | 1,760$858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$902.15 | 120 | 40%48 W · 72 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98cb…aa35backed No | 38c | 1,757$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.71 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed Yes | 57c | 1,739$985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$753.79 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…3b85backed Yes | 62c | 1,663$1,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28de…a1fdbacked Yes | 55c | 1,569$863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.06 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +108.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed Yes | 48c | 1,517$734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782.64 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…195bbacked Yes | 62c | 1,462$912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.38 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 67c | 1,400$936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.96 | 347 | 26.8%93 W · 254 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 54c | 1,308$701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.44 | 112 | 47.3%53 W · 59 L | +9.7wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb497…9c9bbacked Yes | 56c | 1,187$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.06 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…0064backed Yes | 59c | 1,125$664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.08 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 54c | 1,086$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.63 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…36a7backed Yes | 57c | 1,060$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.6 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a4…621abacked Yes | 62c | 1,014$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.11 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0103…067bbacked Yes | 67c | 1,000$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 58c | 998.7$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.29 | 102 | 33.3%34 W · 68 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ce…db56backed Yes | 55c | 988.37$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 54c | 950$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.5 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 49c | 881.99$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.51 | 186 | 28.5%53 W · 133 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 43c | 871.78$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.3 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9c…ceaabacked Yes | 55c | 838.98$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.54 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x526e…3bd0backed Yes | 58c | 809.62$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.34 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d13…082cbacked Yes | 58c | 794.14$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.18 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed Yes | 57c | 794.02$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.43 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 42c | 780.29$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.21 | 152 | 37.5%57 W · 95 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbaaa…fd78backed Yes | 65c | 769.23$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.23 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0f…cc1ebacked Yes | 56c | 758$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c74…d2d4backed Yes | 57c | 730.42$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.19 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x585b…753fbacked Yes | 59c | 724.81$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.42 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a08…2523backed Yes | 58c | 673.28$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.27 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…ea5abacked Yes | 76c | 662.11$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.11 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x002c…cbc2backed Yes | 56c | 639.34$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.49 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 49c | 633.58$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.13 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ab…33c1backed Yes | 60c | 620.44$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.66 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd361…3885backed Yes | 73c | 606.96$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.18 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…1b1cbacked Yes | 57c | 600$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 52c | 572$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.96 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 61c | 550$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.44 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91e1…1282backed No | 48c | 519.99$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.59 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x541c…7e07backed Yes | 50c | 514$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbe…d7b8backed Yes | 50c | 510$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.1 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6c…eb44backed Yes | 52c | 509.79$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.55 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4145…fc24backed Yes | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b52…8a4fbacked Yes | 45c | 500$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4d…6d87backed Yes | 59c | 500$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.13 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 45c | 486$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.17 | 192 | 37.5%72 W · 120 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x536d…8127backed Yes | 53c | 476.83$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.93 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 68c | 451.8$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.21 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c5…d7d6backed Yes | 56c | 441.53$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.88 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x867c…5d65backed Yes | 54c | 437.92$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.42 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 15cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa587…82d1backed Yes | 56c | 436.02$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.02 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked No | 41c | 427.54$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.22 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2365…8eb9backed Yes | 49c | 421.05$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.74 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe05e…1ab8backed Yes | 61c | 409.84$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.84 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d42…f046backed Yes | 62c | 407.71$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.93 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +30%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 60c | 399.99$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 78 | 34.6%27 W · 51 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c17…953fbacked No | 41c | 395.88$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.77 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…d02cbacked Yes | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…77c7backed No | 47c | 345.03$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.47 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed Yes | 51c | 340$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.9 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1734…ddd4backed Yes | 61c | 328.59$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.59 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0da8…fe8dbacked No | 40c | 317.78$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9c…d01bbacked Yes | 63c | 317.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa87e…c6d8backed Yes | 55c | 303.59$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.59 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb1…4253backed Yes | 64c | 300.1$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Yes | 64c | 300$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39c8…6e68backed Yes | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…43a5backed Yes | 56c | 294.98$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.94 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf24c…74a6backed No | 34c | 291.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 52c | 287.04$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.86 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the SPD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election?this page
- Will the SPD win 10-15% of the vote in the German election?No won
- Will the SPD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?No won
- Will the SPD win 25-30% of the vote in the German election?No won
- Will the SPD win less than 10% of the vote in the German election?No won
- Will the SPD win over 30% of the vote in the German election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.