World Politics · resolved market
Will the SPD win less than 10% of the vote in the German election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xedc56fb59317a5c23cbf8277f137bcad8c36defdbb25bf69b0cd2ecd610d3b34
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $558,278
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $557,482
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $558,278 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2929…d0d5backed Yes | 0c | 74,152$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | -39%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…ee73backed Yes | 10c | 51,010$5,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,200 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eca…63a9backed Yes | 1c | 32,886$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 1c | 20,834$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.24 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 2c | 9,000$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 1c | 8,473$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.62 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb7…b3bebacked Yes | 1c | 7,886$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.52 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 66c | 5,164$3,405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,759.16 | 121 | 33.1%40 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 2c | 4,444$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.1 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe05a…5fddbacked Yes | 5c | 4,137$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes | 1c | 3,540$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.24 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc37…a72cbacked Yes | 2c | 3,111$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 2,934$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.58 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5269…9388backed Yes | 2c | 2,458$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 3c | 2,374$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.8 | 166 | 12.7%21 W · 145 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 56c | 2,363$1,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,029.95 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | +29.2wins | +0.25per pick | 26cpaid | +132.4%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x8427…0a5cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,324$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 4c | 2,212$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.74 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x712d…3d9abacked Yes | 1c | 2,159$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe62d…315cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,099$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,941$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 71c | 1,540$1,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.3 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb2…b38bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,500$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.34 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb28a…6d4abacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df3…bbadbacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8967…1e9bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,490$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9935…a1f3backed Yes | 1c | 1,300$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f0…e0d6backed Yes | 2c | 1,219$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 1c | 1,043$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 78 | 6.4%5 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 186 | 28.5%53 W · 133 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 100 | 14%14 W · 86 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0004…ef4cbacked Yes | 2c | 999.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 2c | 999.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 110 | 13.6%15 W · 95 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…366cbacked Yes | 3c | 999.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…d918backed Yes | 1c | 992.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde2a…d754backed Yes | 1c | 939.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…02c7backed Yes | 2c | 929.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc4…4bdbbacked Yes | 2c | 853.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424d…244fbacked Yes | 1c | 800$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 2c | 671.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 78 | 0%0 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa274…6769backed Yes | 2c | 659.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca65…a45bbacked Yes | 2c | 584.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0af1…abc0backed Yes | 2c | 542.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9e…cbe6backed Yes | 2c | 461.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57cf…65f1backed Yes | 3c | 438.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ff…2acbbacked Yes | 3c | 407.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36eb…6044backed Yes | 3c | 392.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3670…18e8backed Yes | 4c | 250$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…8ef1backed Yes | 5c | 234$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the SPD win less than 10% of the vote in the German election?this page
- Will the SPD win 10-15% of the vote in the German election?No won
- Will the SPD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election?Yes won
- Will the SPD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?No won
- Will the SPD win 25-30% of the vote in the German election?No won
- Will the SPD win over 30% of the vote in the German election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.