World Politics · resolved market
Will the SPD win 25-30% of the vote in the German election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00fe5e24e1834a4bd5d59bae32530eb6c158ed4c0898c4aaf95b488ca94dafca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $831,404
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $291,295
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $831,404 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 63,944$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.78 | 361 | 4.4%16 W · 345 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54e1…51b4backed Yes | 0c | 51,852$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 25,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Yes | 0c | 24,000$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.89 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e10…9b8bbacked Yes | 1c | 13,910$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.87 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 1c | 13,410$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.95 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9242…a3bdbacked Yes | 0c | 10,842$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd14…4486backed Yes | 0c | 10,842$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b84…5ddebacked Yes | 0c | 10,842$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7080…644bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,842$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7383…9194backed Yes | 0c | 10,842$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x596d…b567backed Yes | 0c | 10,842$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc57b…73fbbacked Yes | 0c | 10,842$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b8…804cbacked Yes | 0c | 10,842$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a64…bfd8backed Yes | 0c | 10,842$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 1c | 8,778$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.89 | 121 | 33.1%40 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11a5…4032backed Yes | 0c | 8,237$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 40 | 5%2 W · 38 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | -84.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a71…6cf5backed Yes | 1c | 7,507$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 5,953$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.52 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…dbe0backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb7…b3bebacked Yes | 1c | 4,034$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8e…0045backed Yes | 1c | 3,559$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.03 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +164.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 4c | 3,540$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.8 | 110 | 13.6%15 W · 95 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 1c | 1,300$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 100 | 14%14 W · 86 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 1c | 1,265$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 78 | 6.4%5 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 5c | 1,254$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.72 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +52%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 3c | 1,226$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.32 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95e3…9ee9backed Yes | 1c | 1,140$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffe6…4e41backed Yes | 1c | 1,106$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -55%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85a…afb1backed Yes | 2c | 997.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc373…bd7bbacked Yes | 1c | 669.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…f8a8backed Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 6c | 191.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 125 | 6.4%8 W · 117 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the SPD win 25-30% of the vote in the German election?this page
- Will the SPD win 10-15% of the vote in the German election?No won
- Will the SPD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election?Yes won
- Will the SPD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?No won
- Will the SPD win less than 10% of the vote in the German election?No won
- Will the SPD win over 30% of the vote in the German election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.