World Politics · resolved market
Will the SPD win 10-15% of the vote in the German election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x357043edb1b4b1fec761988ab39c52b303ecd1912737162cd2d0987fa30f7f69
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $776,453
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $634,956
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $776,453 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 293 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeaf6…a3eabacked Yes | 0c | 69,839$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.68 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 34c | 49,042$16,571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,570.5 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x560c…22ecbacked Yes | 28c | 27,000$7,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,560 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…766abacked Yes | 28c | 26,000$7,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,280 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbc…e142backed Yes | 28c | 24,300$6,804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,804 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 45c | 24,030$10,796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,795.55 | 112 | 47.3%53 W · 59 L | +9.7wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0676…477fbacked No | 72c | 20,100$14,472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,628 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5b…afc0backed Yes | 28c | 20,000$5,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,600 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Yes | 39c | 16,006$6,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,210.31 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38f4…102abacked No | 72c | 13,500$9,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,780 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a46…f5e6backed No | 72c | 13,500$9,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,780 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9f…2453backed No | 72c | 13,100$9,432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,668 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8df…b8a4backed No | 72c | 12,900$9,288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,612 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0804…0e63backed No | 72c | 12,200$8,784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,416 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…d64dbacked No | 72c | 12,100$8,712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,388 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked Yes | 29c | 9,891$2,868 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,868.05 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eca…63a9backed Yes | 2c | 8,426$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.44 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 38c | 7,573$2,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,880.14 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 14c | 7,479$1,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,052.87 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6902…678cbacked Yes | 57c | 7,100$4,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,028.11 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 4c | 6,967$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.07 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 32c | 6,336$2,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,048.89 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -4.6wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 53c | 5,999$3,179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,819.53 | 118 | 53.4%63 W · 55 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfffa…864bbacked No | 73c | 5,057$3,685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,371.67 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 68cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked Yes | 38c | 4,536$1,709 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,709.04 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 39c | 3,620$1,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,405.88 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 33c | 3,489$1,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,152.3 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b6…41a7backed Yes | 31c | 3,234$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed Yes | 27c | 3,000$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2365…8eb9backed Yes | 2c | 2,982$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.25 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb7…b3bebacked Yes | 27c | 2,733$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.35 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc6…62e0backed Yes | 37c | 2,516$941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$941.41 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 24c | 2,300$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 34c | 2,251$771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770.97 | 120 | 40%48 W · 72 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2997…ee2bbacked Yes | 42c | 2,122$899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.06 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe62d…315cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,024$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 25c | 2,000$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.3 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 8c | 2,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | +9.7wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +262.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes | 24c | 1,827$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.5 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b69…0cdebacked Yes | 37c | 1,744$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.91 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed Yes | 28c | 1,576$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.14 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b52…8a4fbacked Yes | 21c | 1,500$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 3c | 1,500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4407…8f2bbacked Yes | 45c | 1,487$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 25c | 1,447$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.41 | 166 | 12.7%21 W · 145 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 25c | 1,447$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.87 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 70c | 1,423$993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.42 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 65c | 1,343$869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474 | 121 | 33.1%40 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Yes | 25c | 1,223$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.41 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91e1…1282backed Yes | 25c | 1,220$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.6 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe05a…5fddbacked Yes | 33c | 1,218$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadf4…ce9dbacked No | 74c | 1,164$865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.4 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66c0…4cd6backed Yes | 24c | 1,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x440d…55e6backed Yes | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…b9ffbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 25cpaid | +142.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5df3…bbadbacked Yes | 42c | 999.99$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 30c | 993.18$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.05 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37a4…a487backed Yes | 28c | 952.29$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.4 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68b7…c0bcbacked Yes | 24c | 934.19$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9759…35d8backed Yes | 26c | 932.8$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked Yes | 34c | 744.82$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.72 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…996bbacked Yes | 28c | 722.06$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ce…db56backed Yes | 28c | 720.93$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2c…dc30backed No | 72c | 708.22$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.22 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3371…5871backed Yes | 26c | 703$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.78 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -87.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes | 43c | 700$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299 | 197 | 42.6%84 W · 113 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x555f…012bbacked Yes | 31c | 679.58$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.71 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 37c | 674.6$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Yes | 44c | 651.39$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.26 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 41c | 629.51$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.04 | 100 | 14%14 W · 86 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes | 23c | 614.31$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.91 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc4…4bdbbacked Yes | 27c | 606.11$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.65 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…0064backed Yes | 42c | 595.24$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9127…6ff3backed Yes | 30c | 557.82$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 69c | 545.45$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.8 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | -11.0wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x39c8…6e68backed No | 62c | 516$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.24 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 65c | 515.61$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.59 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7816…af9dbacked Yes | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x715d…c88dbacked Yes | 62c | 500$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 41c | 500$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 160 | 29.4%47 W · 113 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90b7…0b0dbacked Yes | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.3 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ef…3d1ebacked Yes | 43c | 491.41$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.31 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbe…d7b8backed Yes | 33c | 460$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.8 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 28c | 451.8$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.84 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x585b…753fbacked Yes | 39c | 450$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.5 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36f0…e0d6backed Yes | 35c | 428.57$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66de…9f40backed Yes | 28c | 421.06$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked No | 73c | 419.99$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.82 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed Yes | 43c | 413$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.59 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf24c…74a6backed Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 35c | 382.61$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.24 | 152 | 37.5%57 W · 95 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…d37cbacked No | 69c | 361.38$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e8…cb15backed Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 12c | 357$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.17 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…dbe1backed No | 58c | 355.17$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 39c | 351.52$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.95 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1efa…6a86backed Yes | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -47%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed Yes | 31c | 322.33$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.38 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…f8a8backed Yes | 27c | 300$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c91…c5f9backed Yes | 34c | 297.9$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the SPD win 10-15% of the vote in the German election?this page
- Will the SPD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election?Yes won
- Will the SPD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?No won
- Will the SPD win 25-30% of the vote in the German election?No won
- Will the SPD win less than 10% of the vote in the German election?No won
- Will the SPD win over 30% of the vote in the German election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.