World Politics · resolved market
Will the SPD win over 30% of the vote in the German election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8958c6464359ba927b09a2f03663a6f450e2f1eeae66edadc697a541d73bd458
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,399,770
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $617,876
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,399,770 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 278 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 130,656$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.37 | 361 | 4.4%16 W · 345 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x828b…6e21backed Yes | 2c | 34,975$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42fe…8ccbbacked Yes | 2c | 32,782$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4797…9244backed Yes | 2c | 30,654$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x270e…f5b4backed Yes | 2c | 28,518$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x517f…53b1backed Yes | 2c | 26,628$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe0…23f9backed Yes | 2c | 26,624$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb646…970abacked Yes | 2c | 26,465$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76c7…4c8ebacked Yes | 2c | 25,673$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f43…aa4bbacked Yes | 2c | 25,214$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb6…a1a8backed Yes | 2c | 25,029$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 25,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf36…1643backed Yes | 2c | 24,559$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 0c | 24,218$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.94 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b6c…60efbacked Yes | 2c | 23,925$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68f…5130backed Yes | 2c | 23,189$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1561…67b1backed Yes | 2c | 23,047$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b68…bd29backed Yes | 2c | 22,128$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13f9…5b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 21,849$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6348…c53abacked Yes | 2c | 21,678$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d5…e0d1backed Yes | 2c | 21,378$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf73…2351backed Yes | 2c | 20,739$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x642f…c3adbacked Yes | 2c | 19,991$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8d…7423backed Yes | 2c | 19,549$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6420…4125backed Yes | 2c | 19,400$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1227…8bd3backed Yes | 2c | 19,249$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00bf…147dbacked Yes | 1c | 19,012$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f04…774bbacked Yes | 2c | 18,735$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf556…e165backed Yes | 2c | 18,427$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11a5…4032backed Yes | 0c | 18,243$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 40 | 5%2 W · 38 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | -84.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ebf…9aa4backed Yes | 3c | 17,988$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x055f…747ebacked Yes | 2c | 17,986$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d82…7a8abacked Yes | 3c | 17,875$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…7a03backed Yes | 3c | 17,791$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eca…8e1dbacked Yes | 2c | 17,784$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dec…049abacked Yes | 2c | 17,769$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd26…aac9backed Yes | 2c | 17,642$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5670…a8fabacked Yes | 2c | 17,563$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e48…81f6backed Yes | 2c | 17,441$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f03…9191backed Yes | 2c | 17,253$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8420…e8ddbacked Yes | 2c | 17,172$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddbe…0a67backed Yes | 2c | 17,015$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a2…6ccfbacked Yes | 2c | 16,982$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x413f…b47dbacked Yes | 2c | 16,885$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb8…bd32backed Yes | 2c | 16,845$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd77a…1020backed Yes | 2c | 16,773$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf87…f6d4backed Yes | 2c | 16,761$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc4…56d3backed Yes | 2c | 16,355$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ba…f710backed Yes | 2c | 16,253$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb3…74b9backed Yes | 2c | 16,183$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6abc…eeddbacked Yes | 2c | 16,019$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…7d4bbacked Yes | 2c | 15,862$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5b…2941backed Yes | 3c | 15,839$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02f0…4fc8backed Yes | 3c | 15,668$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1b…3277backed Yes | 2c | 15,590$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64b4…25afbacked Yes | 2c | 15,456$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…a7c6backed Yes | 3c | 15,369$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5424…601bbacked Yes | 2c | 15,355$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe739…92e0backed Yes | 2c | 15,304$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc75…1a87backed Yes | 2c | 15,197$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb726…ebbebacked Yes | 3c | 15,157$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eda…53efbacked Yes | 2c | 15,088$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3f…df55backed Yes | 2c | 14,876$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa45d…e15dbacked Yes | 2c | 14,721$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf193…f161backed Yes | 2c | 14,666$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…8b4fbacked Yes | 2c | 14,585$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b6…17dbbacked Yes | 2c | 14,452$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3e…87a2backed Yes | 2c | 14,392$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33fd…7afcbacked Yes | 2c | 14,387$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7db3…9574backed Yes | 3c | 14,375$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3854…8e26backed Yes | 3c | 14,354$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab38…cb64backed Yes | 2c | 14,331$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1356…a1e4backed Yes | 2c | 14,106$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f70…18c9backed Yes | 3c | 13,982$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03db…2e68backed Yes | 2c | 13,971$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…03e5backed Yes | 2c | 13,917$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe12e…1995backed Yes | 2c | 13,825$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3b…0c5ebacked Yes | 2c | 13,779$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…fc58backed Yes | 2c | 13,644$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf26…18ebbacked Yes | 2c | 13,639$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb47…0042backed Yes | 2c | 13,613$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf54d…c454backed Yes | 2c | 13,599$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b68…aa4abacked Yes | 3c | 13,355$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6edc…d5c1backed Yes | 2c | 13,266$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf620…26d8backed Yes | 2c | 13,038$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d4a…d5aebacked Yes | 3c | 13,035$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aea…bbaabacked Yes | 3c | 13,004$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97b7…cea5backed Yes | 2c | 12,921$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb263…5c63backed Yes | 2c | 12,881$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca5…c814backed Yes | 2c | 12,801$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…4ff0backed Yes | 3c | 12,764$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06d…08cbbacked Yes | 3c | 12,595$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecd8…a832backed Yes | 3c | 12,593$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb29e…cbfbbacked Yes | 2c | 12,121$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a90…8905backed Yes | 2c | 12,082$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x373c…0c77backed Yes | 2c | 12,063$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95a4…bf8dbacked Yes | 3c | 12,011$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76a7…ff2dbacked Yes | 2c | 12,011$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb805…f928backed Yes | 3c | 11,874$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b4…32f6backed Yes | 3c | 11,805$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the SPD win over 30% of the vote in the German election?this page
- Will the SPD win 10-15% of the vote in the German election?No won
- Will the SPD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election?Yes won
- Will the SPD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?No won
- Will the SPD win 25-30% of the vote in the German election?No won
- Will the SPD win less than 10% of the vote in the German election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.