World Politics · resolved market
Will the SPD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe757b6797d77a6fcf69a2f749fd6601bd0456135aaff422af9a2a8b3cd3f1af9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $352,708
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $278,676
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $352,708 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9b93…ee1cbacked Yes | 0c | 72,618$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5943…2ef2backed Yes | 1c | 22,000$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.75 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e10…9b8bbacked Yes | 8c | 16,072$1,271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,270.84 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 7c | 14,119$967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$967.42 | 121 | 33.1%40 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 2c | 13,276$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.3 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 0c | 12,675$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.17 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2c…dc30backed Yes | 9c | 5,941$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb497…9c9bbacked Yes | 8c | 5,922$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b69…0cdebacked Yes | 8c | 5,495$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.29 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 15c | 5,040$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$766.87 | 110 | 13.6%15 W · 95 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes | 7c | 4,162$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.28 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x990a…7134backed Yes | 5c | 3,930$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.1 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Yes | 2c | 3,802$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.09 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 1c | 3,157$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 3c | 3,100$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.99 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8e…0045backed Yes | 10c | 3,000$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.38 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +164.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…36a7backed Yes | 2c | 2,991$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28de…a1fdbacked Yes | 11c | 2,311$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.57 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +108.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…3b80backed Yes | 2c | 2,218$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 2c | 2,036$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…a403backed Yes | 9c | 2,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c8…6e68backed Yes | 7c | 1,622$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.81 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…996bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,508$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…dbe0backed Yes | 5c | 1,472$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb7…b3bebacked Yes | 7c | 1,340$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.39 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Yes | 12c | 1,033$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.65 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc85a…afb1backed Yes | 12c | 823$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd19…bfccbacked Yes | 3c | 724.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d98…ccc5backed Yes | 17c | 690$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde2a…d754backed Yes | 2c | 639.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 9c | 637.05$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7edc…29cbbacked Yes | 15c | 600$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 14c | 589.53$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.53 | 112 | 47.3%53 W · 59 L | +9.7wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 562.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 18c | 560$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2607…8b73backed Yes | 10c | 512.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e7…fc15backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1729…61a6backed Yes | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x440e…81e4backed Yes | 7c | 492.86$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f48…4d29backed Yes | 7c | 436.71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 8c | 422.62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 166 | 12.7%21 W · 145 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9f…0cdfbacked Yes | 9c | 380.52$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.94 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ac…1af2backed Yes | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 14c | 350$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30ab…33c1backed Yes | 9c | 321.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d85…19cfbacked Yes | 16c | 314.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.36 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88d7…5762backed Yes | 16c | 295$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.1 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…77c7backed Yes | 13c | 282.03$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffe6…4e41backed Yes | 9c | 242$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -55%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 11c | 211.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 7c | 206.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 125 | 6.4%8 W · 117 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc10e…1002backed Yes | 10c | 201$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…a070backed Yes | 8c | 198.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe10b…5fe3backed Yes | 25c | 170$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 67 | 32.8%22 W · 45 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8922…f01dbacked Yes | 7c | 156.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf53…4db3backed Yes | 18c | 138.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a50…45dfbacked Yes | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x924e…5555backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…7a45backed Yes | 15c | 95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 170 | 44.1%75 W · 95 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cc…67a6backed Yes | 18c | 85.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the SPD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?this page
- Will the SPD win 10-15% of the vote in the German election?No won
- Will the SPD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election?Yes won
- Will the SPD win 25-30% of the vote in the German election?No won
- Will the SPD win less than 10% of the vote in the German election?No won
- Will the SPD win over 30% of the vote in the German election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.