TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x90b7…0b0d

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
109
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 53 out of 100; worst Ukraine at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Ukrainelast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT7638.2%29 W · 47 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-16.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 76 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$66
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$101.32
Will Russia enter Myrne by August 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$85
Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$103.02
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.42
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$184Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$183.86
Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.83
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$136Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$64
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$142Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+94.5%+$133.89
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$32
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$34
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$212Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+65.5%+$138.5
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$86Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$44.33
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+488.2%+$83
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$107.25
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$8.65
Will Russia enter Vasylivka by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$226Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+39.4%+$88.82
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+32.7%+$9.26
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$115.99
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$143Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+160.1%+$229.61
Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$76.29
Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$77.56
Will Russia enter Verkhnia Tersa by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+658.7%+$123.15
Will Russia enter Dovha Balka by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.53
Showing 25 of 76 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2025, EDT1827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$36.5
Will George Simion win by 6–12%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$34
Will George Simion win by 0–6%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$46
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Will no new pope be elected in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT+127.3%+$112
Will the AFD be part of the next German government?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$120
Will the CDU/CSU win by 8-10%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Will the CDU/CSU win by 6-8%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT+314.2%+$156.99
Will the CDU/CSU win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.19
Will the CDU/CSU win 25-30% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT+244.8%+$71
BSW wins 5% or more of vote in German election? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$68
Will the SPD win 10-15% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$125.3
Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$109Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT+83.5%+$91
Will the AfD win 25-30% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$38.54
Greens win over 15% of vote in German election? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT+40.8%+$14.5
FDP wins 5% or more of vote in German election? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$68
Will CDU/CSU win the second most seats in the next German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2025, EST-100%-$36
Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2025, EST-100%-$28.5
All 18 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-51.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST40%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 25, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump visit Germany in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+212.5%+$68
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Mar 25, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2025, EDT+138.1%+$58
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$45
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.