World Politics · resolved market
Will the CDU/CSU win by 6-8%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d42aa7d3e7c9d990038aa022f425896970d28407823ad306414074e419b6f76
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $101,177
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $110,810
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,177 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 18c | 10,574$1,924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,649.62 | 112 | 47.3%53 W · 59 L | +9.7wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed Yes | 51c | 4,061$2,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,008.37 | 196 | 23%45 W · 151 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 43c | 4,018$1,726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,291.89 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed Yes | 78c | 3,505$2,729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$775.75 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 20c | 2,588$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,072.44 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b4…a638backed No | 1c | 2,100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes | 63c | 2,029$1,283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$745.9 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 12c | 1,853$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed Yes | 22c | 1,775$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,384.08 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39c8…6e68backed Yes | 44c | 1,711$758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$952.83 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed No | 22c | 1,429$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.02 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c6…d8fabacked Yes | 23c | 1,409$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,084.91 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes | 77c | 1,128$866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.98 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b52…8a4fbacked Yes | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee26…1cfebacked Yes | 42c | 839.69$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.23 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…b103backed Yes | 79c | 796.07$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.65 | 205 | 38%78 W · 127 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 46c | 779.03$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.72 | 160 | 29.4%47 W · 113 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x562f…e46fbacked Yes | 16c | 700$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.26 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 58c | 682.87$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.82 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…005fbacked Yes | 59c | 676.99$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.87 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c91…c5f9backed Yes | 65c | 628.55$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.41 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4440…5f67backed Yes | 18c | 588.07$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.06 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2c…dc30backed Yes | 75c | 550.33$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.78 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2c…a0a4backed No | 44c | 451.8$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.61 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ef…3d1ebacked Yes | 21c | 426.79$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.16 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 14c | 426.37$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.62 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 36c | 408$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.81 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80c6…e3c1backed Yes | 25c | 406.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.62 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6902…678cbacked Yes | 27c | 388.24$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.79 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…b9ffbacked Yes | 8c | 370$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.8 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 25cpaid | +142.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x26dc…4741backed Yes | 27c | 360.39$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.09 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 25c | 345.17$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.07 | 239 | 21.3%51 W · 188 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb02…c534backed Yes | 74c | 342.2$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf33…63b2backed Yes | 51c | 338.15$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91e1…1282backed No | 74c | 337.84$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2365…8eb9backed Yes | 8c | 337.33$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.57 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked Yes | 25c | 322.41$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.81 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +112.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…1b1cbacked Yes | 55c | 310$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.41 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2353…6a76backed Yes | 13c | 265.12$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.12 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +44%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Yes | 17c | 254.25$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.57 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa823…851fbacked Yes | 24c | 252.47$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.34 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed Yes | 25c | 237.17$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.96 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 23c | 233.17$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.33 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +4.6wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc8…7dd1backed Yes | 51c | 221.7$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c5…d7d6backed Yes | 46c | 209.35$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.18 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90b7…0b0dbacked Yes | 24c | 206.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.99 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9b…b444backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 50c | 200$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.6 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | +9.9wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x34a4…4cc7backed Yes | 15c | 199.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.99 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4112…b904backed Yes | 78c | 184.91$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…0c77backed Yes | 18c | 170$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x734f…b3b7backed Yes | 21c | 155.02$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.31 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 7c | 154.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.47 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed No | 77c | 150$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe588…7397backed No | 11c | 150$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf8…042fbacked Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 15c | 147$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.52 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f57…e8b4backed Yes | 70c | 146.95$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.83 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.65 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f0…3213backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.26 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…9f41backed No | 54c | 104$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c9…8a0fbacked Yes | 54c | 102.4$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f7…35e5backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9389…711cbacked Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc495…1cb0backed Yes | 46c | 94$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddc7…3ab0backed No | 29c | 94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…18d4backed Yes | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 31cpaid | +94.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f19…3aedbacked Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.91 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbe…d7b8backed Yes | 18c | 90$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.8 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5224…a664backed Yes | 18c | 88.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.1 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 21c | 83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.19 | 152 | 37.5%57 W · 95 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf2…75a4backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +79.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84d…82d9backed Yes | 60c | 73$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 60cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba1…7382backed Yes | 36c | 67.49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8755…9d5cbacked Yes | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.22 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc2…0b59backed Yes | 39c | 54.57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.32 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x071a…df8ebacked Yes | 54c | 53.54$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95fd…b53abacked Yes | 71c | 53$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x797a…7284backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed Yes | 26c | 49.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff37…049cbacked No | 71c | 44.27$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.49per pick | 74cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa9…481bbacked No | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc1…9be6backed Yes | 37c | 43.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.41 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7977…9082backed No | 68c | 38.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93aa…21f4backed Yes | 30c | 38.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c74…d2d4backed Yes | 42c | 36.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.01 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b54…352dbacked No | 41c | 32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +95.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 74c | 30.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 199 | 57.3%114 W · 85 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c7…d58fbacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0b…c0dcbacked No | 41c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x087a…0a15backed No | 41c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…7710backed Yes | 71c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe658…794bbacked Yes | 46c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa77f…169fbacked Yes | 60c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 60cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9113…0a43backed Yes | 60c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 60cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63ed…d7efbacked No | 68c | 15.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the CDU/CSU win by 6-8%?this page
- Will the CDU/CSU win by 10-12%?No won
- Will the CDU/CSU win by 2-4%?No won
- Will the CDU/CSU win by 4-6%?No won
- Will the CDU/CSU win by 8-10%?No won
- Will the CDU/CSU win by less than 2%?No won
- Will the CDU/CSU win by more than 12%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.