TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x8755…9d5c

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
165
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: NHL, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category NHL at 53 out of 100; worst MLB at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jan 13, 2025, EST6666.7%44 W · 22 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 66 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hornets vs. Sunsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2025, EST+37%+$7.4
Nets vs. Jazzbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Pacers vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2025, EST-100%-$31
Heat vs. Trail Blazersbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2025, EST+62.9%+$12.59
Raptors vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2025, EST+53.8%+$16.15
Thunder vs. Knicksbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2025, EST+61.4%+$15.35
Pelicans vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Heat vs. Jazzbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2025, EST+47.1%+$14.12
Trail Blazers vs. Mavericksbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2025, EST+35.1%+$10.54
Raptors vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2025, EST+35.1%+$10.54
Trail Blazers vs. Pelicansbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2025, EST+56.8%+$22.73
Hawks vs. Jazzbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2025, EST+42.9%+$12.86
Timberwolves vs. Pelicansbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2025, EST+51.5%+$15.45
Suns vs. Hornetsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Pacers vs. Netsbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2025, EST+29%+$3.19
Bucks vs. Raptorsbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2025, EST+38.7%+$4.26
Trail Blazers vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2025, EST+42.2%+$4.65
Jazz vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2025, EST-100%-$41
Grizzlies vs. Warriorsbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2025, EST-100%-$51
Jazz vs. Heatbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2025, EST-100%-$81
Knicks vs. Bullsbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2025, EST-100%-$71
76ers vs. Netsbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2025, EST-100%-$11
Grizzlies vs. Kingsbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2025, EST-100%-$41
Cavaliers vs. Mavericksbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$82Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2025, EST+37%+$30.33
Magic vs. Raptorsbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$82Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2025, EST+85.2%+$69.85
Showing 25 of 66 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Sep 18, 2025, EDT4226.2%11 W · 31 L-4.3wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-33%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
MLB — the 42 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Guardians vs. Tigersbacked Guardians · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2025, EDT+203%+$64.97
Phillies vs. Dodgersbacked Phillies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$16
Braves vs. Nationalsbacked Nationals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$16
Cardinals vs. Marinersbacked Cardinals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.44
Mets vs. Tigersbacked Mets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$254Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$254.4
Brewers vs. Blue Jaysbacked Brewers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 30, 2025, EDT+119.4%+$77.26
Cardinals vs. Redsbacked Cardinals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 29, 2025, EDT+164.5%+$165.42
Red Sox vs. Oriolesbacked Orioles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$35
Red Sox vs. Yankeesbacked Red Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$24.5
Athletics vs. Marinersbacked Athletics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.75
Rockies vs. Piratesbacked Rockies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.69
Giants vs. Padresbacked Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.14
Pirates vs. Cubsbacked Pirates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.15
Angels vs. Athleticsbacked Angels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Padres vs. Dodgersbacked Padres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.32
Brewers vs. Redsbacked Reds · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$66.58
Pirates vs. Cubsbacked Pirates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT+175.1%+$58.45
Angels vs. Tigersbacked Angels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Cardinals vs. Dodgersbacked Cardinals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.14
White Sox vs. Marinersbacked White Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.14
Tigers vs. Philliesbacked Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.5
Cardinals vs. Padresbacked Cardinals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.46
Orioles vs. Cubsbacked Orioles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2025, EDT+185.7%+$38.26
Rangers vs. Marinersbacked Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.3
Cardinals vs. Padresbacked Cardinals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.3
Showing 25 of 42 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Feb 26, 2026, EST2857.1%16 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+16.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NHL — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Flyers vs. Capitalsbacked Flyers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$10.57
Maple Leafs vs. Oilersbacked Maple Leafs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+170.3%+$27.24
Golden Knights vs. Senatorsbacked Senators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+135.6%+$43.4
Capitals vs. Oilersbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$16
Islanders vs. Oilersbacked Islanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+156.4%+$25.03
Blue Jackets vs. Avalanchebacked Blue Jackets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$350.19
Rangers vs. Lightningbacked Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST+138.1%+$44.19
Ducks vs. Avalanchebacked Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$16
Capitals vs. Hurricanesbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST+150%+$24
Blue Jackets vs. Oilersbacked Blue Jackets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$16
Flyers vs. Canadiensbacked Flyers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+143.9%+$23.02
Penguins vs. Kingsbacked Penguins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT+177.8%+$30.22
Avalanche vs. Sabresbacked Sabres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$16
Islanders vs. Lightningbacked Islanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST+28.2%+$3.38
Lightning vs. Penguinsbacked Penguins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Ducks vs. Hurricanesbacked Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2025, EST+156.4%+$31.28
Kings vs. Flamesbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Islanders vs. Utahbacked Utah · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Ducks vs. Flyersbacked Flyers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2025, EST+31.6%+$9.47
Oilers vs. Blackhawksbacked Blackhawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Lightning vs. Devilsbacked Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2025, EST+26.6%+$3.99
Canucks vs. Maple Leafsbacked Canucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2025, EST+81.8%+$12.27
Blue Jackets vs. Bluesbacked Blue Jackets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2025, EST+88.7%+$13.3
Avalanche vs. Jetsbacked Jets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2025, EST+57.8%+$8.67
Islanders vs. Golden Knightsbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2025, EST-100%-$12
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT2445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+29.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$233Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$232.63
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+455.6%+$264.95
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$205Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$79.66
Will Peter Mutharika win the 2025 Malawi presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 25, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$30
Will Chan Santokhi be the next president of Suriname after the election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.81
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$46.37
Will Crin Antonescu win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.19
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT+212.5%+$25.48
Will the Liberal–National Coalition win between 50 and 54 seats?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.75
Liberals win majority in Canadian election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$16
Will the Liberals win between 170-179 seats in the next Canadian Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$17
Will the Liberals win between 180-189 seats in the next Canadian Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$17
Will the Liberals win between 190-210 seats in the next Canadian Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.36
Will the Liberals win between 160-169 seats in the next Canadian Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+629.5%+$107.02
Will the CDU/CSU win by 8-10%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Will the CDU/CSU win by 6-8%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT+334.8%+$50.22
Will the CDU/CSU win by 10-12%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.97
Will the SPD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT+78.6%+$11.79
Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$8.44
Will the Liberals win the second most seats in the next Ontario Parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$111.71
Will PSD win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$555Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2024, EST+30.9%+$171.76
Will the Liberal Reform Party win the most seats in the Icelandic parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$270Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2024, EST-100%-$270
Will the Social Democratic Alliance win the most seats in the Icelandic parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$276Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2024, EST+107.6%+$297
Will Yamandú Orsi win the 2024 Uruguay presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$415Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST+30.6%+$127.21
All 24 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-34.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

WNBA Inactivelast resolved Aug 9, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
WNBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Liberty vs Wingsbacked Wings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 14, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Vikings vs. Ramsbacked Vikings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2025, EST-100%-$52
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.