World Politics · resolved market
Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x546ec332d630a9cd6f2d93d132d2f38b860dd54d682213bb84fd45938e56b292
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,686,465
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,181,202
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,686,465 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 7,675 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked Yes | 63c | 99,428$62,552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,876.26 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bd…6c26backed Yes | 63c | 87,511$54,836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,675.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8f…64a7backed Yes | 68c | 84,836$57,731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,105.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 55c | 75,716$41,474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,242.25 | 112 | 47.3%53 W · 59 L | +9.7wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 58c | 74,921$43,488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,433.76 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 61c | 69,381$42,373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,008.27 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a87…4e00backed Yes | 63c | 65,984$41,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,542.97 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 2c | 57,189$937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$936.98 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad14…ce36backed Yes | 55c | 55,196$30,297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,899.11 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 48c | 51,753$24,796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,957 | 121 | 33.1%40 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f11…b63fbacked Yes | 55c | 46,052$25,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,884.5 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 43c | 44,990$19,477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,477.04 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5372…d2f9backed Yes | 53c | 41,313$21,823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,490.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +40%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dc…9026backed Yes | 58c | 41,025$23,853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,172.06 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc781…59d7backed Yes | 70c | 39,350$27,712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,637.89 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -7.2wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x58ff…73a4backed No | 52c | 36,089$18,912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,912.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 4c | 32,587$1,418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,418.01 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 69c | 31,021$21,474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,547.23 | 118 | 53.4%63 W · 55 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc5…a867backed Yes | 53c | 28,101$14,982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,118.84 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa22d…ea45backed Yes | 54c | 27,911$15,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,899.93 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 54c | 27,503$14,734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,768.84 | 160 | 29.4%47 W · 113 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06ac…1af2backed Yes | 53c | 27,386$14,493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,893.45 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a4…6897backed Yes | 53c | 26,426$14,124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,301.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1442…5a8fbacked Yes | 52c | 26,111$13,469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,642.09 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed Yes | 47c | 25,544$11,933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,611.25 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +69%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0103…067bbacked Yes | 55c | 24,079$13,332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,746.6 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Yes | 61c | 23,360$14,158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,202.59 | 114 | 28.9%33 W · 81 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6057…3fdebacked Yes | 72c | 23,120$16,685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,434.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8365…e9a6backed Yes | 68c | 20,000$13,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,399.97 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d8…a0a6backed Yes | 61c | 18,000$10,957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,043.78 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 54c | 16,099$8,625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,473.63 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2038…6161backed Yes | 69c | 15,769$10,883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,885.41 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 66c | 15,695$10,291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,404.55 | 92 | 37%34 W · 58 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7be…cc5cbacked Yes | 72c | 14,614$10,574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,040.91 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec40…fce5backed Yes | 52c | 11,191$5,866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,324.91 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…0843backed Yes | 67c | 10,845$7,266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,578.86 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…e476backed Yes | 60c | 10,588$6,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,254.93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1166…7c32backed Yes | 78c | 10,096$7,915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,180.79 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…0ff0backed Yes | 5c | 10,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,500 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +192.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x440d…55e6backed No | 39c | 10,000$3,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,900 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66de…9f40backed Yes | 52c | 9,361$4,868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,493.34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc7…2035backed Yes | 33c | 9,336$3,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,282.85 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 48c | 9,088$4,384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,703.96 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b08…daf0backed Yes | 68c | 9,057$6,117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,939.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -63%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa587…82d1backed Yes | 58c | 9,041$5,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,808.6 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x008b…b476backed Yes | 51c | 8,513$4,329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,184.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked No | 43c | 8,082$3,475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,475.17 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x242c…c63fbacked No | 1c | 8,000$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe62d…a9dabacked Yes | 4c | 7,948$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,630.53 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…ea5abacked Yes | 66c | 7,926$5,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,726.22 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72e1…7d89backed Yes | 77c | 7,872$6,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,823.82 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4d…6d87backed Yes | 54c | 7,752$4,221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,530.37 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb15d…2851backed Yes | 57c | 7,736$4,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,297.14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x310a…0d0abacked Yes | 65c | 7,643$4,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,693.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d80…5fd8backed Yes | 68c | 7,628$5,172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,455.78 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24d2…1472backed Yes | 38c | 7,505$2,827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,678.44 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 62c | 7,230$4,508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,722.34 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4312…01debacked Yes | 79c | 6,861$5,408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,452.75 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 50c | 6,752$3,403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,403.12 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2755…5016backed Yes | 68c | 6,127$4,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,983.24 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb03…3796backed Yes | 51c | 6,051$3,086 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,964.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5975…6820backed Yes | 63c | 6,020$3,772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,248.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…eb64backed Yes | 59c | 5,788$3,412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,375.65 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfa76…a2b1backed Yes | 45c | 5,772$2,603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,168.06 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked Yes | 45c | 5,756$2,581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,174.38 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98da…e66dbacked Yes | 65c | 5,385$3,508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,877.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb19…f674backed No | 10c | 5,305$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.31 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd653…ba9abacked Yes | 68c | 5,299$3,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,698.68 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed Yes | 59c | 5,277$3,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,147.49 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b88…d628backed Yes | 39c | 5,110$1,973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,136.39 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +6.3wins | +0.19per pick | 30cpaid | +24%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5950…8c48backed Yes | 43c | 4,825$2,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,746.58 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc122…731fbacked Yes | 40c | 4,819$1,908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,911.57 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a4…621abacked Yes | 61c | 4,788$2,925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,863.75 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4b9…fe41backed Yes | 67c | 4,692$3,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,548.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 30c | 4,687$1,394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,393.71 | 166 | 12.7%21 W · 145 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2d…073ebacked Yes | 49c | 4,674$2,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,398.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcff5…8f7fbacked Yes | 53c | 4,670$2,456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,213.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 41c | 4,620$1,906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,906.27 | 152 | 37.5%57 W · 95 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…0064backed Yes | 64c | 4,590$2,937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,653.65 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa195…c343backed No | 44c | 4,540$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57af…6a35backed Yes | 68c | 4,500$3,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,440 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -51%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd9…bd75backed No | 21c | 4,340$894 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$893.62 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8258…f208backed Yes | 49c | 4,339$2,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,213.11 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb69…a5cdbacked Yes | 67c | 4,111$2,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,360.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x727c…8cb9backed Yes | 50c | 4,084$2,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,057.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 52c | 4,071$2,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,936.55 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad1…2b23backed Yes | 52c | 4,000$2,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,899.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6f…8afbbacked Yes | 65c | 3,971$2,561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,409.44 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed Yes | 54c | 3,947$2,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,817.36 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed Yes | 64c | 3,899$2,479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,420.5 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f8…0361backed Yes | 52c | 3,833$1,989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,843.82 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…e56fbacked Yes | 49c | 3,829$1,863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,965.98 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa135…190ebacked Yes | 54c | 3,801$2,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,748.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 69c | 3,753$2,599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,153.76 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e21…d2debacked Yes | 73c | 3,752$2,751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,001.39 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd09f…e1cabacked Yes | 64c | 3,660$2,354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,306.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ff…c93bbacked Yes | 57c | 3,519$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,518.71 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 66c | 3,500$2,315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,184.98 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c71…0cf9backed Yes | 66c | 3,333$2,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,134.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 29c | 3,311$946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,365.17 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?this page
- Will the AfD win 10-15% of the vote in the German election?No won
- Will the AfD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election?No won
- Will the AfD win 25-30% of the vote in the German election?No won
- Will the AfD win less than 10% of the vote in the German election?No won
- Will the AfD win over 30% of the vote in the German election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.