World Politics · resolved market
Will the AfD win over 30% of the vote in the German election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd68f141aff610df79e579ad93c223cd1771d69ab0a42d33ce5013bbbe7a43934
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,769,632
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,663,537
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,769,632 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 436 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb75…0252backed Yes | 2c | 277,829$5,848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,848.46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 2c | 167,973$4,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,196.58 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36cc…8642backed Yes | 5c | 117,817$5,308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,308.38 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…ee73backed Yes | 6c | 115,489$7,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,296.39 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb7…b3bebacked Yes | 4c | 108,694$4,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,265.34 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 1c | 106,376$1,577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,576.85 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f2…3b01backed Yes | 8c | 97,866$7,488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,487.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb20f…b710backed Yes | 3c | 80,891$2,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,050 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 71,995$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.2 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 4c | 68,785$3,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,005.84 | 121 | 33.1%40 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e05…e2fdbacked Yes | 6c | 60,759$3,396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,395.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Yes | 2c | 57,284$1,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,219.38 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcddf…6579backed Yes | 4c | 55,000$1,925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,925 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b62…b02dbacked Yes | 3c | 53,548$1,636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,635.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2c…a1e4backed Yes | 2c | 49,509$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0817…03a9backed Yes | 5c | 49,351$2,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,222.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9e…cbe6backed Yes | 3c | 47,646$1,334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,333.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde4e…7520backed Yes | 3c | 46,388$1,224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,223.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…84f9backed Yes | 4c | 43,070$1,918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,917.51 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e4d…6cf6backed Yes | 2c | 41,286$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 3c | 40,061$1,297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,296.7 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +52%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6060…6978backed Yes | 6c | 39,276$2,475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,474.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d04…8859backed Yes | 3c | 38,488$1,314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,313.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bf…bc05backed Yes | 2c | 36,587$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 6cpaid | +2,757.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 4c | 36,505$1,374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,373.96 | 166 | 12.7%21 W · 145 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d80…452dbacked Yes | 4c | 33,755$1,256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,255.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x239a…4369backed Yes | 3c | 30,445$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa783…e6d1backed Yes | 3c | 28,285$952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$951.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4503…4474backed Yes | 2c | 25,787$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73b9…4665backed Yes | 4c | 25,293$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b26…2211backed Yes | 6c | 24,839$1,416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,415.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe62d…a9dabacked Yes | 2c | 23,859$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.79 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eca…63a9backed Yes | 1c | 23,501$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.52 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c17…953fbacked Yes | 3c | 21,616$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf0…0245backed Yes | 3c | 21,060$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.81 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…19bfbacked Yes | 0c | 21,043$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 5c | 20,724$1,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,030.73 | 107 | 34.6%37 W · 70 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00b1…3e18backed Yes | 1c | 18,038$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.9 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d92…d298backed Yes | 4c | 17,982$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…a36cbacked Yes | 4c | 17,477$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e84…cf0ebacked Yes | 2c | 16,973$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3283…1da9backed Yes | 2c | 16,193$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a7b…688bbacked Yes | 3c | 15,738$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 4c | 15,169$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.22 | 152 | 37.5%57 W · 95 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02ee…0938backed Yes | 3c | 15,000$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.38 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 14,925$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.05 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91ff…2acbbacked Yes | 3c | 14,531$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.19 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1756…3c96backed Yes | 3c | 14,360$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.89 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d80…5fd8backed Yes | 3c | 14,053$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.38 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…6112backed Yes | 2c | 13,885$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked Yes | 1c | 12,848$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.78 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e56…de74backed Yes | 2c | 12,812$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.23 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 5c | 12,790$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.29 | 78 | 0%0 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 3c | 12,778$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.31 | 186 | 28.5%53 W · 133 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9a…6bf3backed Yes | 2c | 12,687$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4257…7af7backed Yes | 3c | 12,561$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.1 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc122…731fbacked Yes | 6c | 12,539$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790.44 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0467…1a7ebacked Yes | 3c | 12,252$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf25…be9ebacked Yes | 2c | 12,190$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 2c | 12,033$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.43 | 361 | 4.4%16 W · 345 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf62…fceebacked Yes | 5c | 11,337$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9f…c17cbacked Yes | 2c | 11,240$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.06 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd369…9e8ebacked Yes | 2c | 11,194$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.41 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ef…ceb9backed Yes | 3c | 10,909$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…5ed8backed Yes | 4c | 10,493$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a9…0dd8backed Yes | 4c | 10,156$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x890c…dcf1backed Yes | 3c | 10,068$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.75 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57af…6a35backed Yes | 2c | 10,000$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -51%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x018d…1b39backed Yes | 4c | 9,501$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf162…ba35backed Yes | 6c | 9,399$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.22 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…02c7backed Yes | 2c | 8,945$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ad…4aafbacked Yes | 6c | 8,616$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd45b…0283backed Yes | 2c | 8,570$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec2…bcd2backed Yes | 2c | 8,267$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.61 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe301…f5c6backed Yes | 3c | 8,246$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.24 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2d…073ebacked Yes | 7c | 8,217$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8769…48ecbacked Yes | 2c | 8,163$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.86 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe0…7d2ebacked Yes | 3c | 8,016$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb267…8426backed Yes | 3c | 7,944$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e59…3267backed Yes | 7c | 7,937$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b54…c0ccbacked Yes | 2c | 7,678$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4a…f5e6backed Yes | 2c | 7,427$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa939…0808backed Yes | 2c | 7,406$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97b9…7016backed Yes | 3c | 7,367$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9954…0233backed Yes | 2c | 7,261$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3332…c78cbacked Yes | 3c | 7,190$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9e…f5fcbacked Yes | 5c | 7,181$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8b…df65backed Yes | 3c | 7,129$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6644…9c07backed Yes | 2c | 7,072$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4534…f867backed Yes | 2c | 7,000$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.5 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecad…875cbacked Yes | 4c | 6,998$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.53 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2f…a50abacked Yes | 3c | 6,898$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc12…ce48backed Yes | 3c | 6,818$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7742…6f30backed Yes | 3c | 6,796$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2831…c51cbacked Yes | 3c | 6,720$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe05a…5fddbacked Yes | 3c | 6,717$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 4c | 6,600$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262 | 100 | 14%14 W · 86 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96fc…457abacked Yes | 4c | 6,483$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb217…6e4fbacked Yes | 2c | 6,377$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a1…0770backed Yes | 2c | 6,358$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.08 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the AfD win over 30% of the vote in the German election?this page
- Will the AfD win 10-15% of the vote in the German election?No won
- Will the AfD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election?No won
- Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?Yes won
- Will the AfD win 25-30% of the vote in the German election?No won
- Will the AfD win less than 10% of the vote in the German election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.