World Politics · resolved market
Will the AfD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f060d4e55f2bff3b50212beb080beaf6623e440b096aa60301d49b61cf82cfb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,533,059
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,610,350
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,533,059 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,009 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf7bd…6c26backed Yes | 12c | 166,621$19,648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,647.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8f…64a7backed Yes | 10c | 163,259$16,915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,914.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a87…4e00backed Yes | 0c | 160,000$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 20c | 156,015$31,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,264.45 | 121 | 33.1%40 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c46…a137backed Yes | 0c | 153,190$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 21c | 136,825$28,616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,616.25 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x203b…acd1backed Yes | 0c | 124,761$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.76 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28de…a1fdbacked Yes | 15c | 112,293$16,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,979.71 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +108.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked Yes | 7c | 104,276$7,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,151.15 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24d2…1472backed Yes | 0c | 91,443$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.1 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked Yes | 26c | 83,496$21,649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,648.84 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 22c | 78,738$17,412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,412.12 | 112 | 47.3%53 W · 59 L | +9.7wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4257…7af7backed Yes | 0c | 75,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 19c | 70,731$13,773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,773.3 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5943…2ef2backed Yes | 4c | 65,900$2,421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,421.19 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea7…79acbacked Yes | 20c | 56,022$11,479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,478.61 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0681…f713backed Yes | 20c | 50,175$9,838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,837.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fc…fa36backed Yes | 60c | 47,544$28,528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,528.11 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 38cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf975…9381backed Yes | 0c | 45,300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 25c | 37,179$9,215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,215.34 | 160 | 29.4%47 W · 113 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 17c | 36,777$6,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,342.34 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 74c | 32,829$24,328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,501.1 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc781…59d7backed Yes | 37c | 31,901$11,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,940.34 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -7.2wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 19c | 31,117$5,958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,958.04 | 92 | 37%34 W · 58 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 0c | 30,944$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.02 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -90.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dc…9026backed Yes | 32c | 30,882$9,890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,889.58 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b5…205cbacked Yes | 21c | 30,196$6,490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,490.3 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 4c | 25,687$956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$956.24 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf24c…74a6backed Yes | 2c | 22,715$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2416…6e91backed Yes | 3c | 19,074$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.11 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked Yes | 21c | 18,619$3,897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,896.58 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3283…1da9backed No | 77c | 18,172$13,992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,179.98 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes | 35c | 18,148$6,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,440.28 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d8…a0a6backed Yes | 20c | 18,000$3,592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,591.7 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9105…4c47backed Yes | 0c | 17,637$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6057…3fdebacked Yes | 21c | 17,439$3,578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,577.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes | 20c | 17,065$3,328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,327.73 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcff5…8f7fbacked Yes | 17c | 16,321$2,833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,832.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8588…de5ebacked Yes | 0c | 16,082$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd653…ba9abacked Yes | 20c | 13,736$2,792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,791.88 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61ca…7a73backed Yes | 3c | 13,687$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.28 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7120…af58backed Yes | 24c | 13,177$3,215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,214.6 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2023…2d55backed Yes | 24c | 12,056$2,912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,911.62 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffec…7a8bbacked No | 79c | 11,966$9,493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,473.23 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5871…96e7backed Yes | 22c | 11,688$2,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,575.41 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…0843backed Yes | 20c | 11,514$2,317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,316.95 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…36a7backed Yes | 4c | 11,370$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe62d…a9dabacked Yes | 6c | 10,730$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.08 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec40…fce5backed Yes | 28c | 10,093$2,826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,826.22 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59a5…afc8backed Yes | 18c | 10,018$1,791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,791.07 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd0…bc3dbacked Yes | 20c | 10,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x440d…55e6backed Yes | 15c | 10,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08a4…1102backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…0064backed Yes | 20c | 9,857$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e10…9b8bbacked Yes | 22c | 9,851$2,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,167.12 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2844…10f7backed Yes | 3c | 9,484$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.26 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13e4…e01abacked Yes | 8c | 9,450$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed No | 78c | 9,399$7,378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,020.79 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +69%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes | 45c | 8,679$3,919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,919.5 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdec0…b369backed Yes | 1c | 8,332$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.21 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0103…067bbacked Yes | 22c | 8,027$1,745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,745.04 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb28a…6d4abacked Yes | 0c | 7,450$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2038…6161backed Yes | 27c | 7,236$1,964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,964.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e30…3895backed Yes | 19c | 7,145$1,393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,392.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 60c | 7,101$4,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,234.86 | 118 | 53.4%63 W · 55 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Yes | 21c | 7,025$1,459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,459.1 | 114 | 28.9%33 W · 81 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa22d…ea45backed Yes | 29c | 6,950$2,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,035.04 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 18c | 6,948$1,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,246.14 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2997…ee2bbacked Yes | 42c | 6,630$2,779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,778.59 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa587…82d1backed Yes | 25c | 6,603$1,657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,657.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Yes | 21c | 6,600$1,386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,386.01 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f8…0361backed Yes | 20c | 6,473$1,319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,318.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8731…1181backed Yes | 29c | 6,176$1,798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,798.13 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…43a5backed Yes | 19c | 6,094$1,158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,158.14 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc5…a867backed Yes | 25c | 6,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 19c | 5,935$1,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,155.3 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2220…b887backed Yes | 1c | 5,919$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57c5…07aabacked Yes | 12c | 5,703$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706.92 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes | 20c | 5,488$1,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,112.2 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 20c | 5,446$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.77 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d13…082cbacked Yes | 23c | 5,334$1,229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,229.09 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf90d…7e14backed Yes | 1c | 5,198$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed Yes | 22c | 5,150$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140.46 | 196 | 23%45 W · 151 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 21c | 5,131$1,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,068.51 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | -11.0wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x83e2…dd5ebacked No | 65c | 4,966$3,248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,718.27 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d61…3c32backed Yes | 19c | 4,964$941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$941.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 23c | 4,937$1,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,122.43 | 152 | 37.5%57 W · 95 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…e56fbacked Yes | 20c | 4,935$987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$987.05 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x95e1…d804backed Yes | 6c | 4,923$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.03 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8e…0045backed Yes | 21c | 4,920$1,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,054.83 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +164.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Yes | 27c | 4,722$1,297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,297.38 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 29c | 4,720$1,356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,355.78 | 102 | 33.3%34 W · 68 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 22c | 4,602$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.57 | 166 | 12.7%21 W · 145 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9b…a65ebacked Yes | 3c | 4,543$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x440e…81e4backed Yes | 41c | 4,493$1,829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,828.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b08…daf0backed Yes | 63c | 4,350$2,735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,735.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -63%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed No | 79c | 4,348$3,442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$906.05 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb558…3d55backed Yes | 5c | 4,284$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.17 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x728b…e868backed Yes | 24c | 4,163$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked Yes | 33c | 4,121$1,358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,358.32 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the AfD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election?this page
- Will the AfD win 10-15% of the vote in the German election?No won
- Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?Yes won
- Will the AfD win 25-30% of the vote in the German election?No won
- Will the AfD win less than 10% of the vote in the German election?No won
- Will the AfD win over 30% of the vote in the German election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.