World Politics · resolved market
Will the AfD win 10-15% of the vote in the German election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d762b96d3a92f61823a593e64ec6cd2287f4671a25a1a4824961d5ba8bcf5a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,653,655
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,891,632
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,653,655 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 178 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 462,300$1,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,234.53 | 361 | 4.4%16 W · 345 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 0c | 151,803$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.74 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x760e…fec9backed Yes | 0c | 130,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7120…af58backed Yes | 1c | 117,383$1,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,026.09 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5e25backed Yes | 0c | 110,779$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.46 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…b45bbacked Yes | 1c | 110,000$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 1c | 101,999$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.26 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 78,850$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.06 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 1c | 75,459$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.04 | 100 | 14%14 W · 86 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5943…2ef2backed Yes | 0c | 75,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 0c | 71,307$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.79 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 2c | 54,869$858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$858.3 | 121 | 33.1%40 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d80…5fd8backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.08 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…c203backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11a5…4032backed Yes | 0c | 44,892$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.84 | 40 | 5%2 W · 38 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | -84.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 1c | 42,725$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.66 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -90.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1857…c0cebacked Yes | 0c | 33,799$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.4 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed Yes | 1c | 32,822$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.53 | 196 | 23%45 W · 151 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73b2…37dcbacked Yes | 1c | 32,171$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…0843backed Yes | 0c | 27,946$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.93 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc39d…4891backed Yes | 1c | 26,105$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.99 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +131.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d85…8393backed Yes | 0c | 25,450$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.9 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes | 3c | 23,833$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.65 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3919…c5ddbacked Yes | 0c | 23,461$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f03…1794backed Yes | 1c | 23,015$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 1c | 22,082$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.13 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 0c | 19,409$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.38 | 34 | 0%0 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2594…350fbacked Yes | 0c | 17,930$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dc…9026backed Yes | 2c | 17,815$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.65 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c9…5f91backed Yes | 0c | 17,007$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec2a…81c1backed Yes | 0c | 16,798$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -53%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7814…5ecebacked Yes | 1c | 16,571$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879b…2f18backed Yes | 0c | 16,000$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.89 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5950…8c48backed Yes | 0c | 15,372$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.21 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec1b…c92fbacked Yes | 2c | 15,100$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9f…b47abacked Yes | 2c | 14,894$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.99 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f8…0361backed Yes | 1c | 14,679$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.33 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a6…3780backed Yes | 1c | 14,116$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb5…3dbfbacked Yes | 0c | 12,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked Yes | 2c | 12,338$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.14 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff2b…527abacked Yes | 0c | 12,161$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4257…7af7backed Yes | 1c | 12,087$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe085…5474backed Yes | 0c | 11,865$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.21 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x060a…eaabbacked Yes | 0c | 11,344$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e10…9b8bbacked Yes | 1c | 10,871$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.85 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f42…9fcebacked Yes | 0c | 10,500$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 10,051$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.7 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb39…c696backed Yes | 2c | 10,006$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e8…4747backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60ba…1ad8backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -58%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf24c…74a6backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf43a…cafcbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -35%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb28a…6d4abacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.65 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…484abacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8e…0045backed Yes | 4c | 10,000$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +164.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6902…678cbacked Yes | 3c | 10,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 3c | 9,740$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.77 | 78 | 0%0 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78f0…79e4backed Yes | 0c | 9,500$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f63…ae97backed Yes | 0c | 9,394$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3303…395fbacked Yes | 1c | 8,909$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bc…51fdbacked Yes | 0c | 8,900$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…590bbacked Yes | 1c | 8,787$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x691f…d3ecbacked Yes | 2c | 8,487$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.86 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19da…11f0backed Yes | 2c | 8,469$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.67 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70c7…a3dfbacked Yes | 0c | 8,100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c1…825fbacked Yes | 2c | 8,040$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.07 | 51 | 13.7%7 W · 44 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 0c | 8,000$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | +86.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28de…a1fdbacked Yes | 6c | 7,172$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +108.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781f…6763backed Yes | 0c | 7,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02f8…46d2backed Yes | 1c | 6,697$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd174…313fbacked Yes | 0c | 6,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 1c | 6,451$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.7 | 160 | 29.4%47 W · 113 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x663e…61c8backed Yes | 1c | 6,380$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ff…bafebacked Yes | 3c | 6,362$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5871…96e7backed Yes | 1c | 6,294$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.94 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…dbe0backed Yes | 0c | 6,242$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4098…e82fbacked Yes | 0c | 6,071$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa38…ffb3backed Yes | 0c | 6,056$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06d5…9246backed Yes | 0c | 6,009$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe70d…cb59backed Yes | 2c | 5,923$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.46 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1638…339bbacked Yes | 4c | 5,913$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.76 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8eb…cce3backed Yes | 1c | 5,900$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f0…723dbacked Yes | 0c | 5,552$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc028…9349backed Yes | 0c | 5,527$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c66…bef0backed Yes | 1c | 5,189$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 1c | 5,127$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.02 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2365…8eb9backed Yes | 0c | 5,023$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49dc…9830backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad7…413dbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x650f…e81ebacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b79…ac82backed Yes | 1c | 4,814$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…f1a4backed Yes | 4c | 4,677$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.37 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec58…86c4backed Yes | 0c | 4,466$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12fd…83ccbacked Yes | 0c | 4,400$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 4,392$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.26 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd19…bfccbacked Yes | 0c | 4,315$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…38e2backed Yes | 0c | 4,165$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39c8…6e68backed Yes | 1c | 4,050$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the AfD win 10-15% of the vote in the German election?this page
- Will the AfD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election?No won
- Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?Yes won
- Will the AfD win 25-30% of the vote in the German election?No won
- Will the AfD win less than 10% of the vote in the German election?No won
- Will the AfD win over 30% of the vote in the German election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.