World Politics · resolved market
Will the AfD win 25-30% of the vote in the German election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf1a2b4ccf8b92efc3710b5d3bb263aa28c9ecf4858abb6c73047c1c0d7b9416
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,805,514
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,148,561
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,805,514 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,229 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x58ff…73a4backed Yes | 24c | 608,789$143,638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143,638.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ebb…0f7fbacked Yes | 18c | 401,454$71,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71,091.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb75…0252backed Yes | 11c | 204,270$22,918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,917.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 18c | 156,847$27,765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27,764.7 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb20f…b710backed Yes | 13c | 144,630$18,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,839.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed No | 75c | 142,299$106,977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,322.41 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 120,490$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.25 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 6c | 108,974$6,366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,365.68 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cf…b8d3backed Yes | 11c | 72,934$8,262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,261.61 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eca…63a9backed Yes | 1c | 61,500$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.5 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked No | 75c | 58,477$43,837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,639.39 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6060…6978backed Yes | 13c | 58,189$7,834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,833.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4503…4474backed Yes | 9c | 57,277$5,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,179.17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc122…731fbacked Yes | 16c | 50,450$7,897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,897 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf24c…74a6backed Yes | 4c | 49,568$1,863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,863.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd28d…1fb7backed Yes | 15c | 49,000$7,293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,293.12 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2c…a1e4backed Yes | 12c | 43,217$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa068…6b89backed Yes | 0c | 42,039$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…84f9backed Yes | 19c | 39,850$7,586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,585.93 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…e476backed Yes | 12c | 39,511$4,687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,687 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36cc…8642backed Yes | 17c | 38,020$6,633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,632.77 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1975…f07bbacked Yes | 15c | 34,682$5,187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,186.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…997bbacked Yes | 0c | 34,212$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 11c | 34,084$3,662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,662.24 | 97 | 21.6%21 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe62d…a9dabacked Yes | 9c | 30,728$2,631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,631.48 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 10c | 30,164$2,958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,958.12 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +52%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 10c | 30,050$3,136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,135.74 | 121 | 33.1%40 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57af…6a35backed Yes | 10c | 30,000$2,961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,961.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -51%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 14c | 29,943$4,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,330.45 | 166 | 12.7%21 W · 145 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2844…10f7backed Yes | 1c | 29,590$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad14…ce36backed Yes | 12c | 29,111$3,502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,502.42 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c17…953fbacked Yes | 14c | 28,831$3,909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,909.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04be…ae29backed Yes | 1c | 27,671$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…fd49backed Yes | 13c | 27,071$3,534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,533.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x008b…b476backed Yes | 12c | 26,187$3,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,041.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e83…6abcbacked Yes | 22c | 25,584$5,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,600 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aca…8b98backed Yes | 18c | 24,996$4,558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,557.75 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3283…1da9backed Yes | 12c | 24,170$2,891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,891.32 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bf…bc05backed Yes | 5c | 23,886$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 6cpaid | +2,757.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8f…64a7backed Yes | 0c | 23,853$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b26…2211backed Yes | 26c | 23,649$6,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,245.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…0e96backed Yes | 14c | 23,644$3,369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,368.71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e56…de74backed Yes | 1c | 23,352$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Yes | 8c | 21,947$1,670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,669.72 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2d…073ebacked Yes | 15c | 21,841$3,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,242.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d80…5fd8backed Yes | 12c | 20,940$2,517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,517.38 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 13c | 20,473$2,752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,751.87 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d6e…9418backed Yes | 1c | 20,345$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 6cpaid | +126.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…0ff0backed Yes | 1c | 20,295$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.66 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +192.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a7b…688bbacked Yes | 12c | 20,000$2,474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,473.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4c…0873backed Yes | 13c | 19,169$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 15c | 19,144$2,826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,826.43 | 152 | 37.5%57 W · 95 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2023…2d55backed Yes | 20c | 19,092$3,769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,769.32 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf77e…9a40backed Yes | 8c | 18,605$1,412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,412.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…eb64backed Yes | 26c | 18,368$4,821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,821.1 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Yes | 19c | 18,206$3,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,504.34 | 114 | 28.9%33 W · 81 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…19bfbacked Yes | 2c | 18,091$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf17c…a514backed Yes | 15c | 17,905$2,667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,666.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x371e…c419backed Yes | 12c | 17,300$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb7…b3bebacked Yes | 15c | 17,034$2,611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,610.56 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b5c…d3bbbacked Yes | 15c | 16,933$2,481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,481.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7b…9489backed Yes | 2c | 16,710$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02ee…0938backed Yes | 13c | 15,000$1,938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,938.23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 12c | 14,733$1,760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,759.6 | 92 | 37%34 W · 58 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9954…0233backed Yes | 12c | 14,580$1,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,750 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3e…37e4backed Yes | 21c | 14,459$3,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,009.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 1c | 13,977$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.66 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb69…a5cdbacked Yes | 10c | 13,908$1,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,420 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3db…2467backed Yes | 1c | 13,743$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.05 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d80…452dbacked Yes | 14c | 13,629$1,849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,848.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcddf…6579backed Yes | 12c | 13,515$1,625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,624.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 10c | 13,435$1,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,301.55 | 78 | 0%0 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 25c | 13,000$3,234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,234 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa351…410dbacked Yes | 0c | 12,990$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 17c | 12,810$2,117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,117.36 | 160 | 29.4%47 W · 113 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2f…b779backed Yes | 8c | 12,710$1,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,011.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63d3…a9b8backed Yes | 1c | 12,443$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7110…55a9backed Yes | 2c | 11,745$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3371…5871backed Yes | 13c | 11,524$1,528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,528.11 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -87.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x364c…b541backed Yes | 11c | 11,344$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebf…2459backed Yes | 13c | 11,133$1,498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,497.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37d2…f302backed Yes | 1c | 10,400$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.64 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66de…9f40backed Yes | 21c | 10,271$2,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,206.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1442…5a8fbacked Yes | 21c | 10,165$2,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,129.72 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ca…7229backed Yes | 12c | 10,000$1,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,180 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 13c | 9,937$1,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,316.13 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0607…b037backed Yes | 10c | 9,533$983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$982.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd785…f5b9backed Yes | 13c | 9,522$1,213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,213 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0111…0463backed Yes | 13c | 9,332$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…b7e2backed Yes | 14c | 9,279$1,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,272.35 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ae…4cdcbacked Yes | 13c | 9,223$1,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,183.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0103…067bbacked Yes | 14c | 9,195$1,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,310.88 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2755…5016backed Yes | 13c | 8,999$1,206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,205.86 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e84…cf0ebacked Yes | 11c | 8,937$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdba…3e7abacked Yes | 1c | 8,747$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9e…cbe6backed Yes | 13c | 8,682$1,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,088.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6644…9c07backed Yes | 13c | 8,463$1,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,111.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x998f…dcacbacked Yes | 12c | 8,215$962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$961.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf62…fceebacked Yes | 16c | 8,069$1,273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,273.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d4…2b20backed Yes | 1c | 8,037$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the AfD win 25-30% of the vote in the German election?this page
- Will the AfD win 10-15% of the vote in the German election?No won
- Will the AfD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election?No won
- Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?Yes won
- Will the AfD win less than 10% of the vote in the German election?No won
- Will the AfD win over 30% of the vote in the German election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.