World Politics · resolved market
Will the AfD win less than 10% of the vote in the German election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9ce9f9f9b9c193c06b8fbab9284a3b5de28570ba21333df27138c60af1ce24a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,752,500
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,655,877
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,752,500 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 172 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32cf…b8d3backed Yes | 0c | 431,936$864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$863.87 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1857…c0cebacked Yes | 0c | 405,270$882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$882.4 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70c7…a3dfbacked Yes | 0c | 376,529$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.09 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…c203backed Yes | 0c | 249,999$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 0c | 222,786$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.14 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50bc…b6c6backed Yes | 0c | 200,894$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.79 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 182,071$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.75 | 361 | 4.4%16 W · 345 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 0c | 170,876$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.31 | 100 | 14%14 W · 86 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 0c | 159,999$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e56…de74backed Yes | 0c | 149,910$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.91 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40c…0f50backed Yes | 0c | 126,070$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54c3…a6f9backed Yes | 0c | 104,080$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d85…8393backed Yes | 0c | 101,500$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9953…6f37backed Yes | 0c | 101,000$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2844…10f7backed Yes | 0c | 86,721$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes | 0c | 77,800$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.3 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1397…f763backed Yes | 0c | 74,008$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe70d…cb59backed Yes | 0c | 71,781$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.01 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe28b…63fbbacked Yes | 0c | 65,790$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2b…6a62backed Yes | 1c | 60,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6898…be0bbacked Yes | 0c | 59,874$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…61d1backed Yes | 1c | 55,503$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65b4…553abacked Yes | 0c | 54,693$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7285…8757backed Yes | 1c | 52,320$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…64edbacked Yes | 0c | 50,374$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.37 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc871…8dedbacked Yes | 0c | 48,237$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11bb…9878backed Yes | 0c | 42,130$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 0c | 40,000$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 8cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04bb…6566backed Yes | 0c | 37,550$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c7…4cdcbacked Yes | 0c | 36,755$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2023…2d55backed Yes | 0c | 34,378$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.13 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4257…7af7backed Yes | 0c | 34,063$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee9…e8ccbacked Yes | 0c | 33,667$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88e4…8f34backed Yes | 1c | 33,333$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7771…2d74backed Yes | 0c | 31,000$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x691f…d3ecbacked Yes | 0c | 30,771$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.35 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd076…d2efbacked Yes | 0c | 30,450$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcec…9ffdbacked Yes | 0c | 30,440$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…c63ebacked Yes | 0c | 30,430$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77fe…6895backed Yes | 0c | 28,500$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec29…33c3backed Yes | 0c | 28,074$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480c…d2e6backed Yes | 0c | 27,910$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…aec3backed Yes | 0c | 27,655$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1754…2d7ebacked Yes | 0c | 26,810$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2a…612cbacked Yes | 0c | 25,750$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40ca…4cdabacked Yes | 0c | 25,534$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48c9…852ebacked Yes | 0c | 25,216$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6334…1a88backed Yes | 0c | 25,190$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15e1…abc7backed Yes | 0c | 24,275$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc82…0e1fbacked Yes | 0c | 23,519$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.27 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98a1…8226backed Yes | 0c | 23,255$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff5…4b53backed Yes | 0c | 22,405$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.81 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28fd…6e18backed Yes | 0c | 21,657$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.84 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8271…5904backed Yes | 0c | 20,490$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dc…9026backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda57…811fbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8f…5e3cbacked Yes | 1c | 19,564$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfada…f694backed Yes | 0c | 19,470$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x517c…87aebacked Yes | 0c | 19,113$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0eb…59d1backed Yes | 0c | 19,098$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb06…2c64backed Yes | 0c | 19,020$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…aa04backed Yes | 0c | 18,933$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49e6…35cbbacked Yes | 0c | 18,860$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5e…47fabacked Yes | 0c | 18,490$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaac9…7c66backed Yes | 0c | 16,990$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3283…1da9backed Yes | 1c | 16,667$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b79…ac82backed Yes | 0c | 16,667$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb83…d016backed Yes | 0c | 16,274$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedff…7218backed Yes | 0c | 15,888$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e8…a9babacked Yes | 1c | 15,600$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x985f…4d62backed Yes | 0c | 15,555$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae1…5251backed Yes | 0c | 15,420$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x196f…c62cbacked Yes | 0c | 15,286$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b53…f414backed Yes | 0c | 14,800$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e5…86dabacked Yes | 0c | 14,709$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…fc7bbacked Yes | 0c | 14,290$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe99c…2a09backed Yes | 0c | 13,501$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x146e…ff37backed Yes | 0c | 13,380$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd856…43ebbacked Yes | 0c | 13,333$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 0c | 13,333$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 0%0 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…2386backed Yes | 0c | 13,310$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e22…5badbacked Yes | 1c | 13,205$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa569…353dbacked Yes | 0c | 12,315$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d26…03febacked Yes | 1c | 11,802$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abe…3fa8backed Yes | 0c | 11,215$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba2b…d008backed Yes | 0c | 10,390$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x868a…c96bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,333$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2475…ba0abacked Yes | 0c | 10,145$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e09…bdf9backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec2a…81c1backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -53%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb5…3dbfbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49dc…9830backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb27…4db3backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 37 | 2.7%1 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -82%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec58…86c4backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 121 | 33.1%40 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked Yes | 0c | 9,980$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97a7…911bbacked Yes | 0c | 9,680$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 9,303$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e34…b76abacked Yes | 1c | 9,167$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the AfD win less than 10% of the vote in the German election?this page
- Will the AfD win 10-15% of the vote in the German election?No won
- Will the AfD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election?No won
- Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?Yes won
- Will the AfD win 25-30% of the vote in the German election?No won
- Will the AfD win over 30% of the vote in the German election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.