TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Yamandú Orsi win the 2024 Uruguay presidential election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$360,312
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$454,660

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $360,312 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 238 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcc45…40cfbacked No26c20,713$5,426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,426.1920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked No20c11,619$2,366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,365.9843243.1%186 W · 246 L+29.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No14c4,936$689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$688.771,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked No0c3,610$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.42780%0 W · 78 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e6a…bee7backed Yes78c3,200$2,496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$704560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec76…1036backed Yes72c2,844$2,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$810.32933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-36.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2493…8a11backed No32c2,633$842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$841.63520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-69.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca94…336ebacked Yes75c2,631$1,965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$665.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2e6…cc3abacked Yes76c2,485$1,878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$606.352100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bed…f347backed Yes74c2,437$1,810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$626.821533.3%5 W · 10 L-3.0wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-33.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x75b4…5aabbacked Yes80c2,082$1,665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.57944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-33%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3544…f21bbacked Yes79c2,076$1,636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.5366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cc9…fc51backed Yes75c1,873$1,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.21464.3%9 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ef5…7e05backed Yes77c1,743$1,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.62560%3 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe800…e861backed Yes80c1,448$1,158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacc8…7d08backed No23c1,428$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.346149.2%30 W · 31 L+11.0wins+0.18per pick31cpaid+90%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x9353…cdbebacked Yes76c1,324$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.191816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-77.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2d3…e60cbacked Yes79c1,266$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26b8…131cbacked Yes79c1,260$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.362100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x956f…e875backed Yes78c1,193$931 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.571963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+28.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf646…88c4backed Yes80c1,169$933 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe25c…ae63backed Yes71c1,053$749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.414650%23 W · 23 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+27.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d02…adadbacked Yes79c1,051$830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.82785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick64cpaid+22.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc2f5…d860backed Yes79c1,000$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2101100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc271…aa77backed Yes80c902.55$719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a83…98a7backed No23c867.99$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d4c…ff37backed Yes78c865.1$671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe955…2114backed Yes79c800$632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1681100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x719d…4e73backed Yes76c777.88$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.754100%4 W · 0 L+2.3wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+256.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed Yes69c756.46$521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.678048.8%39 W · 41 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+16.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05c5…73e1backed Yes79c750$593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.5425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-68.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa256…fc1ebacked Yes75c709.71$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.79742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-36%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x42f5…9555backed Yes72c694.34$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29b7…b5dabacked No28c693.44$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.8240%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa1af…d889backed No14c631.34$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.971216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-48.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c38…5f47backed No23c599.99$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13770%0 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8755…9d5cbacked Yes77c542.7$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.212445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+29.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c4…8712backed Yes76c529.38$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.05250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-34.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39da…7b3dbacked Yes76c528.4$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.44333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-56.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3846…c908backed No26c504.1$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.025242.3%22 W · 30 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-18.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa26…7acfbacked Yes75c500.11$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.11250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-33.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c26…002ebacked Yes77c490.25$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.82450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-19.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e0f…df2bbacked Yes79c413.2$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67b3…8498backed Yes78c377.39$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.391850%9 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-23%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x951c…8099backed Yes79c319.59$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.11540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick62cpaid-45.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5762…336cbacked Yes77c317.93$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.51250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-35.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f59…d367backed Yes77c317.31$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc222…3d96backed Yes75c306.95$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed No23c271.02$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.5415237.5%57 W · 95 L+8.0wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x70a9…6a74backed Yes76c260.59$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.33250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-34.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x816d…944abacked Yes78c257.98$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x163e…d18cbacked No27c255.39$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-26%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5d6…8a40backed Yes79c253.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.16650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-18.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4004…c537backed Yes76c250.66$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.87250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-34.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c67…bb39backed Yes78c250$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551625%4 W · 12 L-2.9wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-51.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3844…d930backed Yes80c250$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d19…4860backed No28c226.69$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77e5…e83cbacked No15c215.21$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafca…e73fbacked Yes72c206.4$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.79633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-53.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82ff…8713backed Yes75c200$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4b6…ea10backed Yes78c192.31$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33b5…88bfbacked Yes79c192.14$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.27450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd3c…b96abacked Yes76c184.42$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No23c182.54$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.281,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95f7…cb76backed Yes79c180$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d4b…b5c0backed No13c167.54$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2688…9e42backed Yes78c159.7$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.35333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick57cpaid-57.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x62cc…9d0fbacked Yes69c156.48$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.511040%4 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7c8…24dcbacked Yes78c155$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.15100%5 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+104%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked No34c153.68$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.238337.3%31 W · 52 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+104%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf59f…3be9backed Yes75c146.08$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.08862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+36.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9e4…53c3backed Yes76c144.46$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.67757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf70…d1d5backed Yes71c140.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes76c138.47$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.47922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick43cpaid-63.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdf6f…faf3backed Yes73c136.35$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.35666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick75cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc360…0c46backed Yes73c136.3$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.32729.6%8 W · 19 L-6.4wins-0.24per pick53cpaid-47.5%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xf11f…ccbabacked Yes71c136.2$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.5475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7415…fae8backed Yes77c134.71$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.98425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-67.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa54…f2aabacked Yes75c133.32$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x132d…ed15backed Yes76c131.86$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0c6…2902backed Yes76c131.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.29250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-34.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x98a6…3292backed Yes76c131.17$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.17333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-56.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1de2…2c83backed Yes80c130.48$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.1475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x335f…7670backed Yes76c128.46$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f6a…2f6ebacked Yes72c127$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.162100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+135.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbdad…d8b0backed Yes79c126.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.58771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick66cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3587…23adbacked Yes80c125$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25850%4 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-13.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bf7…f64ebacked Yes80c125$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe10b…5fe3backed Yes70c120$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366732.8%22 W · 45 L+0.3wins0.00per pick32cpaid-18.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a05…2ddabacked Yes76c118$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.32728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-31.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1c1…8781backed Yes78c115.55$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19c3…0bdbbacked No26c114.42$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3050%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb92…c583backed Yes73c114.09$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.741520%3 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked Yes70c111.99$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.6560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c87…70d5backed No33c110$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.340%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe51e…0079backed No22c109.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.870%0 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x3978…2f24backed No17c109.04$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.662630.8%8 W · 18 L-3.2wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-41.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe502…3403backed No13c106.23$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.830%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87c4…490ebacked Yes77c103.9$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.9250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-35.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbed…aa02backed Yes74c100$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-46.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.