TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Peter Mutharika win the 2025 Malawi presidential election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$177,767
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$180,809

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $177,767 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x07d4…8991backed No2c9,730$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.815315.1%8 W · 45 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+52%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x551e…b0e0backed Yes47c4,881$2,317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,563.56439.1%25 W · 39 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick33cpaid-9.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe281…e7bfbacked No1c4,327$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.873912.8%5 W · 34 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick14cpaid+42.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No9c2,790$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.2415026%39 W · 111 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-28.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked No1c2,650$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.6526139.8%104 W · 157 L+16.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+32.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa1ff…55bdbacked No1c2,180$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.442142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+22.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a95…a40abacked No3c2,027$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50e6…e838backed No2c1,900$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.18110%0 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No1c1,859$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.76883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1237…06afbacked Yes73c1,696$1,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.532729.6%8 W · 19 L-4.4wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-52.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1018…7264backed No9c1,559$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.042650%13 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed No1c1,480$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.481358.1%11 W · 124 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-28%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe52c…6924backed No19c1,435$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.56475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+33.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5caf…5470backed No9c1,371$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.91229.1%2 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick9cpaid-81.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes64c1,310$844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46648224.7%119 W · 363 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed No15c1,226$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.786914.5%10 W · 59 L-6.9wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-59.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x21d0…ce91backed Yes69c1,201$832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.8113413.4%18 W · 116 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-15.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5529…5d05backed No9c1,163$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.3930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cc7…5536backed No10c1,124$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.763818.4%7 W · 31 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-45.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x54db…0174backed No13c1,112$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14619623%45 W · 151 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-24.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No7c911.66$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.6212345.5%56 W · 67 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c3b…3ad8backed No35c821$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.34250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked No37c816.47$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.889035.6%32 W · 58 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No4c798.76$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9518628.5%53 W · 133 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-17.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No12c790$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.8819043.7%83 W · 107 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47ea…5799backed No9c771.2$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.36520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-72.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No37c760.78$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.1857636.3%209 W · 367 L-27.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2034…8daebacked No17c749.99$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.77423%17 W · 57 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No7c711.22$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.551,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf66c…4ab1backed No11c665.03$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.473116.1%5 W · 26 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick8cpaid+45.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d39…fa04backed Yes75c639.81$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.962846.4%13 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf21…fd6ebacked No33c638.13$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.621346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-31.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x12f0…6a90backed No12c631.99$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.843010%3 W · 27 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x70f5…aceebacked Yes80c625$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1251100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x461a…4030backed No40c601.15$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.064238.1%16 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No17c592.28$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.131,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c62…5d44backed Yes80c523.37$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.872433.3%8 W · 16 L-4.6wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-34.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4aae…d563backed Yes78c497.83$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.561838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No12c436.76$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.211,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7250…5468backed No19c399.98$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.884641.3%19 W · 27 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-36.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked No6c317.84$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.581344.5%6 W · 128 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe25c…ae63backed Yes76c307.94$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.744650%23 W · 23 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+27.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e38…a1dbbacked No25c298.42$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753033.3%10 W · 20 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+62.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc435…304ebacked No11c289.57$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.971030%3 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid+22.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70d2…9213backed No5c278.29$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes67c267.43$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.138023.9%91 W · 289 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed No15c261.43$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.2110127.7%28 W · 73 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed No15c247.42$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.844921.2%95 W · 354 L-21.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcc99…e0a3backed Yes57c226.01$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.182944.8%13 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3,440.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed No11c207.05$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.154766.5%31 W · 445 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1953…cc0ebacked Yes73c205.62$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.622080%16 W · 4 L+3.6wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+24.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No5c204.35$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2217921.2%38 W · 141 L+10.6wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+56.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xec76…f9f1backed No20c191.83$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.885174.5%38 W · 13 L+6.8wins+0.13per pick61cpaid+19.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1633…190cbacked Yes75c189$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.253423.5%8 W · 26 L-5.4wins-0.16per pick39cpaid-54.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No19c185$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.7319237.5%72 W · 120 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-31.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd2a4…3ee9backed Yes54c175$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.654645.7%21 W · 25 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+17.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed No7c171$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5812040%48 W · 72 L+5.6wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-18.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b1f…1e95backed No20c162.9$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.973411.8%4 W · 30 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-56.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x790c…033cbacked Yes68c160$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.23860.5%23 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed No9c150$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.54221.4%9 W · 33 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-66.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf002…6221backed No62c150$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$931127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.21per pick48cpaid-52.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x56d8…a862backed Yes80c149.23$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.87475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x501f…f746backed Yes68c147.06$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.068726.4%23 W · 64 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick28cpaid+258.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf515…e56bbacked No30c134.74$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402634.6%9 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick26cpaid+20.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6e58…aebebacked Yes75c133.34$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.334100%4 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+38%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x372a…7201backed Yes60c131.67$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.673935.9%14 W · 25 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick27cpaid-3.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb952…ea01backed Yes78c128.64$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.64366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid-14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8755…9d5cbacked Yes76c125$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+29.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked No13c119.98$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165234.6%18 W · 34 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick27cpaid-17.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1088…b813backed No10c109.89$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3913639%53 W · 83 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8e18…f9ffbacked No23c105$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8393…f0aebacked Yes77c105$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.152330.4%7 W · 16 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-42.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5085…d8a4backed Yes34c103.54$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.544533.3%15 W · 30 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+31.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f0f…c8aebacked No27c103.03$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+16.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf10f…004dbacked No14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144037.5%15 W · 25 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick42cpaid+20.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x90be…c800backed No17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick34cpaid+13.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c4d…6babbacked No24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x781e…cd1cbacked No21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3d8…15fabacked No15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x584c…f44fbacked Yes79c97.47$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.47540%2 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.27per pick67cpaid-48%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb1a1…d308backed No13c97.18$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.83862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.20per pick43cpaid+23.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x278f…715fbacked Yes76c94.48$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.681250%6 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick58cpaid+0.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4971…7488backed Yes77c91.44$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.441560%9 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+22.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No22c89.53$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.972653.8%14 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick63cpaid-22.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes77c83.31$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.7827828.1%78 W · 200 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcced…9ffebacked No24c82$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.274250%21 W · 21 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-13.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f4d…daeabacked Yes79c75.71$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.711553.3%8 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick65cpaid-22.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x36fe…9de8backed Yes78c75.21$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.892100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa03…c6c4backed No18c73.43$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.431656.3%9 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed No16c72$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5212332.5%40 W · 83 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7a…5261backed Yes79c63.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.292100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8c9…74f1backed No17c62.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.593935.9%14 W · 25 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-21.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe49…716abacked No24c62$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x414b…0d3fbacked Yes80c52.94$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.5913334.6%46 W · 87 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8cc7…a69dbacked Yes77c45.59$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dee…f4e6backed No62c42$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.834365.1%28 W · 15 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x37a4…a487backed No54c41.48$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.42540%10 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid+8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfad0…fbcbbacked Yes80c31.66$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2db9…54bfbacked Yes77c30.07$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.88988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.23per pick66cpaid+34.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa6df…baa2backed Yes73c27.4$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.44942.9%21 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+1.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.