TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Lazarus Chakwera win the 2025 Malawi presidential election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$191,893
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$135,264

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $191,893 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9d5b…d077backed Yes6c13,640$768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$767.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes1c13,100$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.545315.1%8 W · 45 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+52%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85ed…5aa4backed Yes13c9,691$1,224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,224.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3dc2…c9a0backed Yes4c7,488$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5caf…5470backed Yes4c4,909$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.34229.1%2 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick9cpaid-81.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70c7…a3dfbacked Yes5c4,737$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.7590%0 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1ff…55bdbacked Yes1c4,426$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.262142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+22.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x551e…b0e0backed No52c4,137$2,133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,004.256439.1%25 W · 39 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick33cpaid-9.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes10c3,800$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.7225337.2%94 W · 159 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes8c3,608$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.426139.8%104 W · 157 L+16.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+32.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1092…4e2fbacked Yes2c3,091$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5529…5d05backed Yes9c3,005$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.3330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes7c3,001$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.363925.6%10 W · 29 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-43.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes33c2,583$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$849.619237.5%72 W · 120 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-31.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes2c2,500$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.54440.7%3 W · 441 L-0.7wins0.00per pick1cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe281…e7bfbacked Yes1c2,500$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.063912.8%5 W · 34 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick14cpaid+42.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes7c2,103$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.36914.5%10 W · 59 L-6.9wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-59.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1018…7264backed Yes20c2,013$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.362650%13 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes10c2,013$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.0415026%39 W · 111 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-28.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Yes1c1,990$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.721358.1%11 W · 124 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-28%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50e6…e838backed Yes1c1,987$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.05110%0 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7c1…1efebacked Yes6c1,706$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.772817.9%5 W · 23 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick10cpaid-29.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9235…a065backed Yes13c1,705$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbab3…dd28backed Yes13c1,700$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1237…06afbacked Yes24c1,632$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.132729.6%8 W · 19 L-4.4wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-52.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x70b8…3dc2backed Yes14c1,500$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc435…304ebacked Yes10c1,355$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.111030%3 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid+22.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87e1…4673backed Yes4c1,317$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cc7…5536backed Yes9c1,294$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.83818.4%7 W · 31 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-45.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked Yes23c1,212$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2795322.6%12 W · 41 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a95…a40abacked Yes2c1,005$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54db…0174backed Yes12c997.22$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.5519623%45 W · 151 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-24.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c65…5effbacked Yes7c989.64$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.4970%0 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3b4…2a97backed Yes12c850$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.764228.6%12 W · 30 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+48.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes4c767.35$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.534766.5%31 W · 445 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed Yes7c740$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.029750.5%49 W · 48 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21d0…ce91backed Yes15c662.17$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.7413413.4%18 W · 116 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-15.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c69…9e30backed Yes6c623.63$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354531.1%14 W · 31 L-0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes3c576.08$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.261344.5%6 W · 128 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd121…99debacked Yes19c524.66$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100850%4 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-26.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes50c519.37$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.8948224.7%119 W · 363 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes30c502.78$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.669035.6%32 W · 58 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d93…1cffbacked Yes25c500$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.68633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick45cpaid+60.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Yes14c500$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.55740.4%23 W · 34 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-18.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x963d…ec60backed Yes6c489.85$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes6c471$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5831534%107 W · 208 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes18c440.6$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.0538023.9%91 W · 289 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb933…fb0abacked Yes11c426.47$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.781428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick36cpaid+5.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes11c422.74$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.925234.6%18 W · 34 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick27cpaid-17.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x865d…16bdbacked Yes15c405.42$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.112240.9%9 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes7c401.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1620325.6%52 W · 151 L-0.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes7c368.08$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.991494.7%7 W · 142 L+0.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-17.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x501f…f746backed Yes24c362.38$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.978726.4%23 W · 64 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick28cpaid+258.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb952…ea01backed Yes16c351.64$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.1366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid-14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes6c345.4$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.741,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f37…1410backed Yes17c340.6$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.93221.9%7 W · 25 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd2a4…3ee9backed Yes32c335$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.754645.7%21 W · 25 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+17.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedf4…00fbbacked Yes10c333$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.13520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-53.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes32c327.92$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.0727828.1%78 W · 200 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes15c305.5$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70d2…9213backed Yes5c283.92$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e32…535bbacked Yes14c269.99$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.9328430.3%86 W · 198 L+0.8wins0.00per pick30cpaid-29.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Yes9c250$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.374221.4%9 W · 33 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-66.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcced…9ffebacked No59c243.47$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.94250%21 W · 21 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-13.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x524c…64c8backed No72c236$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.08429.5%4 W · 38 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-69.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41b8…88c8backed Yes17c235.56$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6160%0 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x76c8…ba09backed Yes13c229.6$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.72429.2%7 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-49.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdde7…ca8bbacked Yes22c225.17$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid+35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeafe…1195backed Yes10c221.62$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.91450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-32%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd737…71bbbacked Yes18c221$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.572825%7 W · 21 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-7.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes19c215.73$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5157636.3%209 W · 367 L-27.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0dd0…bc3dbacked Yes35c199.52$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.882737%10 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64de…25a1backed Yes8c193.38$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.89650%3 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+626.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xaee5…0836backed Yes21c189.72$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40147.1%1 W · 13 L-3.1wins-0.22per pick30cpaid-88.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes7c182.42$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0218530.3%56 W · 129 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-50.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7826…20b1backed Yes11c181.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b17…1713backed Yes13c176.98$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.8137.7%1 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.20per pick27cpaid-89.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5085…d8a4backed No43c150$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$854533.3%15 W · 30 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+31.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd2e8…eb60backed Yes7c150$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd228…2725backed Yes10c134.98$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.07540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x39c5…f831backed No76c131.75$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.753100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6dee…f4e6backed No51c113.73$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.864365.1%28 W · 15 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf10f…004dbacked Yes14c105.37$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154037.5%15 W · 25 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick42cpaid+20.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc047…fecbbacked Yes16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0e8…5ad3backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f5b…6759backed Yes43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+39.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x37a4…a487backed Yes53c94.4$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.162540%10 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid+8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d7b…babcbacked Yes15c89.01$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.51333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-55.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0da…ff63backed Yes32c74.27$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes18c71$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7945723.2%106 W · 351 L-15.8wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No49c49$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.9911850.8%60 W · 58 L+29.2wins+0.25per pick26cpaid+132.4%equal weight73+0.20 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed No54c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.213118.3%24 W · 107 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-36.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7096…d004backed No79c19.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.18450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-29.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69cd…d63dbacked Yes59c18.64$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.21per pick59cpaid-35.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf49b…8a7dbacked No80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.