TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xcc99…e0a3

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
79
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Movies, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Movies at 57 out of 100; worst Us Midterms at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 8, 2026, EST2944.8%13 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3,440.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 29 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$922Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$922.15
Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,165Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$1,165.02
Will Catalin Drula be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$2,632Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$2,631.94
Will Jeannette Jara win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$2,705Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST+124.9%+$3,380.09
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$4,815Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST-100%-$4,814.74
Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$790Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+340.1%+$2,686.99
Will Mairead McGuinness win the Irish Presidential Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$712Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$712.21
Will Shinjirō Koizumi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$3,529Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,529.26
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT+99,900%+$19,980
Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$764Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$764.16
Will Samuel Doria Medina win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$9,087Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$9,087.41
Will Carlos Moedas be elected Mayor of Lisbon?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$170Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+77.2%+$131.33
Will STAČILO! get between 8% and 11% of the vote in the Czech election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$340Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$340.32
Will SPD get between 10% and 13% of the vote in the Czech election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$105.7
Will Starostové get between 10% and 13% of the vote in the Czech election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$189Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT+162.4%+$307.33
Starostové (STAN) wins 10% or more of vote in Czech election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$692Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT+88.7%+$613.61
SPOLU wins 20% or more of vote in Czech election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$211Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT+88.7%+$187.06
Pirates wins 10% or more of vote in Czech election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$777Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT+68.2%+$529.99
Will PAS win a majority of seats in Moldova elections?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$206Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$205.71
Will Peter Mutharika win the 2025 Malawi presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$129Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 25, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$97.18
Will SP win the fourth most seats in the Norway election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$248Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$247.6
Will Jonas Gahr Støre become the next Prime Minister of Norway?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$1,130Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2025, EDT+77%+$870
Will PPP/C win the most seats in the 2025 Guyana National Assembly election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$908Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 5, 2025, EDT+29.5%+$267.8
Will Miguel Uribe Turbay win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$111.4
Will valid votes be fewer than 5.8 million in Bolivia election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$176Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2025, EDT+211.8%+$373.07
Showing 25 of 29 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1827.8%5 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-45.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ghislaine Maxwell testify before Congress in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$360Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$360
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with China in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$6,516Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$6,515.87
Dan Bongino out as Deputy Director of the FBI by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$209Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+92.3%+$193
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with France in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$26.24
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Germany in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$27.59
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with European Union in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$1,445Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2025, EDT+59.4%+$858.88
Will turnout be between 1000000 and 1100000 in the NYC Democratic mayoral primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$2,705Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT+121.8%+$3,294.36
Will Andrew Cuomo's first round margin of victory be between 5% and 10%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$115
Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be less than 5%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$1,475Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT+25.4%+$374.64
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$51.01
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$54.05
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$136Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$136.14
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$85.08
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$172Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$171.57
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Japan in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$191Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT+181%+$346.51
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$21.42
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$123Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$122.56
US-EU trade agreement by July 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$417Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$416.98
All 18 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Dec 3, 2025, EST1216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-69.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jim McGreevey win the 2025 Jersey City mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$222Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$221.88
Will Bruce Harrell win the 2025 Seattle mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$405Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$404.61
Will Omar Fateh win the 2025 Minneapolis mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$104.92
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$4,619Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+96.1%+$4,438.32
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$1,394Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$1,393.73
Will Chuck Schumer endorse Mamdani?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$308Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST+64.9%+$200.15
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 11% and 12% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$246Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$246.22
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 10% and 11% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$167Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$166.75
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 9% and 10% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$182Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$182.26
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 8% and 9% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$36.29
Will reconciliation bill be passed by July 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$159Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$158.53
Will reconciliation bill be passed by July 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$204Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$203.78
All 12 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2025, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick37cpaid+26.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Oct 1, 2025, EDT650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-18.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST3100%3 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+154.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Movies — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Poker Inactivelast resolved Jul 16, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Poker — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Poker, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Chess Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Chess — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.