TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will reconciliation bill be passed by July 5?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$97,624
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$98,985

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,624 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x022e…2a77backed No10c16,245$1,549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,548.63837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-39.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed No34c7,217$2,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,455.261735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+39.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked Yes66c6,666$4,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,266.441070%7 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick62cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed7c…da06backed No7c6,500$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3d3…d424backed No35c6,095$2,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,126.211540%6 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.17per pick23cpaid+123.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb9cc…387abacked No18c2,740$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.42714.8%4 W · 23 L-2.7wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-72.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes63c2,325$1,455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$869.12475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+16.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed No23c2,222$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.095111.8%6 W · 45 L-0.2wins0.00per pick12cpaid-75.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f11…18e3backed No7c1,965$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fc2…e3f4backed Yes69c1,838$1,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$571.93100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked No24c1,703$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.892924.1%7 W · 22 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid-26%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x912a…0f92backed No9c1,633$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.89219.5%2 W · 19 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-78.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x00fa…30bebacked No32c1,564$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.8840%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x26e9…4a51backed No39c1,384$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54120%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f88…ca51backed No26c1,186$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.4930%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7e8…874fbacked Yes70c1,066$745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.91366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c1e…cbbbbacked No27c1,034$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.5120%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked No48c1,024$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.8450%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x76b0…338abacked No17c1,008$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.35714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick35cpaid-72.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes63c957.99$605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.43525.7%9 W · 26 L+3.8wins+0.11per pick15cpaid+300.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5a24…71e8backed Yes76c922$703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.94333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-56.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf07c…a638backed Yes60c867.25$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked No41c788$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.122927.6%8 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed Yes74c732.21$544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.741233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-39.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80da…4f6dbacked Yes51c623.26$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.632030%6 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-14.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x108d…508abacked Yes68c600$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7895…f3ffbacked Yes79c588.83$463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f96…c771backed No22c555.18$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad7b…63dabacked No31c548$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.3633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-56.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9bf1…3dd4backed Yes69c539.86$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe341…273bbacked No23c528.22$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.9230%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1085…2d69backed No29c527.19$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.971315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick30cpaid-52.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked No15c519$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.467521.3%16 W · 59 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-49.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2027…6d60backed Yes67c509$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.761643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9401…e9ffbacked No6c499.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302313%3 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7994…c512backed No28c483.33$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.41040%4 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+29.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb98b…7e18backed No33c477.99$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.9470%0 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc163…5a1dbacked Yes70c454.91$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.511637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe165…8211backed Yes65c435$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.35633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-52.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcc99…e0a3backed No37c429$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.531216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-69.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd2f8…dd0cbacked No32c410$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.3530%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes73c388.15$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.7345035.1%158 W · 292 L-37.8wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No27c373.99$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.2913317.3%23 W · 110 L-10.0wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6d37…2f72backed No34c355.88$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12140%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa03…c6c4backed Yes71c355$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.68977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick65cpaid+22.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x07b9…db98backed No34c340$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.6728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes66c338.75$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.7633238.6%128 W · 204 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-30%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9795…1328backed No36c336.96$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb52b…9646backed Yes67c300.35$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+50.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96cf…8408backed No5c300$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb701…bb62backed Yes71c300$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick64cpaid+20.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No13c299.87$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.484131.7%13 W · 28 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes76c289.05$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.051752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab8e…3d89backed No18c282.9$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick36cpaid-23.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No15c272.47$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.645044%22 W · 28 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-22.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d08…733dbacked No36c213.7$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.8940%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc412…592dbacked Yes76c200$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.54136.6%15 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-40.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes62c200$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$763844.7%17 W · 21 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+45.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes54c200$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.753023.3%7 W · 23 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick21cpaid-31.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1f0…e173backed Yes66c200$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$682100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+193.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e80…3082backed No28c200$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5630%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaec0…5a19backed Yes72c195$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.6450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-31.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x06ab…7a12backed No7c180.75$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd74e…407cbacked Yes71c165.87$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.37450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-29.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b80…cdf9backed Yes63c159.99$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.23333.3%11 W · 22 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa7f9…6f18backed No36c150$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.64714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick28cpaid-70.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6df…baa2backed No35c144.03$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-49.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeacd…8143backed No15c137.4$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd073…b757backed Yes74c136.04$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.04771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick58cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca44…450abacked No55c127.55$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No25c121.49$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.874520%9 W · 36 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-53.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked No11c101.82$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.470%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb318…2714backed Yes80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-35%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b63…4b44backed Yes58c100$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.08366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+27%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed No39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396431.3%20 W · 44 L-10.4wins-0.16per pick47cpaid-52%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xc5e2…25f7backed No31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311250%6 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4746…920fbacked No36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x56d7…3d6bbacked No31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312425%6 W · 18 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-45.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2359…f72bbacked No39c89.33$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.841533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9e46…16a5backed Yes57c88.07$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+76.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8217…39b1backed No17c81.5$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.83366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e15…6ce6backed Yes80c80$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.34per pick46cpaid+62%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4bee…ca01backed Yes66c75$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ade…7624backed Yes67c74.63$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.63666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked Yes64c73$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.053135.5%11 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-30.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3771…fdf3backed No43c67.87$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.19250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5599…98c3backed Yes71c61.31$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.762100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfef5…1a76backed No33c61.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x180a…8b0dbacked No38c61$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.17333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick63cpaid-57.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8850…1ab2backed No39c60$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd687…c066backed No35c55.38$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3830%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbdd0…8a8cbacked Yes65c55.38$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.382100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x88d7…5762backed No40c52.17$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.652050%10 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed Yes79c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.54957.1%28 W · 21 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+32.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes63c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.53537.1%13 W · 22 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid+17.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2586…f4b1backed No24c47.35$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.27560%3 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick34cpaid+52.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4379…2748backed Yes72c41.67$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.67475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick74cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeec5…b6febacked Yes50c40.2$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.2580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+50.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x71dd…d61cbacked Yes57c35.15$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.151533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-28%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e9c…61febacked Yes67c29.85$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.85425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-62.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.