Us Midterms · resolved market
Will reconciliation bill be passed by August 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc24ea654722e6c3a1defc341f62f49cdbf6c78cfe72515364d13b960afd9181c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $109,584
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $118,224
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $109,584 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a52…cecebacked No | 3c | 20,000$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0673…2e81backed No | 5c | 5,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…f71abacked No | 14c | 4,500$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x656e…65d2backed No | 4c | 3,360$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.49 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -57%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 66c | 2,953$1,961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,960.63 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 4c | 2,795$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.64 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff56…ca81backed No | 19c | 2,398$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 7c | 1,910$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.5 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 14c | 1,857$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,590 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066a…550dbacked No | 6c | 1,500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed No | 3c | 1,488$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.24 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 77c | 1,220$936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.83 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x675d…77d5backed No | 4c | 1,213$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69c8…0fe8backed No | 4c | 1,210$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…d61cbacked No | 7c | 1,189$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96cf…8408backed No | 2c | 1,184$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0242…565dbacked No | 14c | 1,161$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 2c | 1,147$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0829…f6f0backed No | 4c | 1,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc3…648ebacked No | 11c | 618.18$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…b797backed No | 4c | 497.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 3c | 467.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 58 | 5.2%3 W · 55 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed No | 10c | 458.38$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.11 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed Yes | 58c | 403$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.06 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +480.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f9…6f18backed No | 4c | 352.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 5c | 338$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 44 | 2.3%1 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed No | 5c | 286.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 23c | 276$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.46 | 449 | 35.2%158 W · 291 L | -37.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 77c | 259.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…9e01backed No | 4c | 253$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…9de3backed No | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…e74fbacked No | 4c | 249.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1588…0f2fbacked No | 5c | 248.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe28c…9eefbacked No | 14c | 222.69$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed No | 6c | 206.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd562…c28abacked No | 10c | 202.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 93 | 43%40 W · 53 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x625c…a14ebacked No | 11c | 190.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f8…5154backed No | 11c | 186.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked No | 9c | 167$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc6…62e0backed No | 25c | 125.82$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7b…a4c1backed No | 16c | 102$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce20…9ae3backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…614dbacked No | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96ed…a350backed No | 13c | 99.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x726f…887fbacked No | 20c | 98.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed No | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will reconciliation bill be passed by August 31? this page
- Will reconciliation bill be passed by July 2?No won
- Will reconciliation bill be passed by July 31? Yes won
- Will reconciliation bill be passed by July 3?Yes won
- Will reconciliation bill be passed by July 4?Yes won
- Will reconciliation bill be passed by July 5?Yes won
- Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30? No won
- Will reconciliation bill be passed by Memorial day? No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.