Us Midterms · resolved market
Will reconciliation bill be passed by July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d12d5b256d30d801dc00042ee56ce3dd17e63c37a98ec68066bd683cd7bfbc9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $334,277
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $346,539
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $334,277 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 146 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x169a…e191backed Yes | 73c | 49,017$35,782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,234.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb744…42f2backed No | 27c | 49,017$13,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,234.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…c78abacked No | 50c | 32,617$16,309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,308.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc93e…2db5backed Yes | 50c | 32,617$16,309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,308.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 74c | 13,104$9,724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,379.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed No | 7c | 9,128$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.34 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed No | 28c | 6,744$1,882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,881.77 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.7wins | +0.27per pick | 38cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…338abacked No | 8c | 4,757$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.99 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 35cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked No | 0c | 4,698$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 132 | 0.8%1 W · 131 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked No | 22c | 4,689$1,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,052.99 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00fa…30bebacked No | 6c | 4,000$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.68 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 57c | 3,742$2,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,608.43 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…f71abacked No | 24c | 3,500$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked Yes | 74c | 3,494$2,597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$896.79 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed No | 5c | 2,447$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed No | 48c | 2,367$1,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,134.59 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…b797backed No | 10c | 2,024$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0673…2e81backed No | 18c | 2,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d37…2f72backed No | 7c | 1,864$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.64 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03e4…a504backed No | 29c | 1,737$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 10c | 1,646$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.96 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed No | 36c | 1,615$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.22 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +480.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x656e…65d2backed No | 9c | 1,610$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.7 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -57%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 70c | 1,592$1,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.03 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 72c | 1,545$1,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.86 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0103…067bbacked Yes | 78c | 1,500$1,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e0…b648backed No | 4c | 1,500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 9c | 1,343$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.59 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 1c | 1,335$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed No | 21c | 1,331$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed No | 7c | 1,322$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 3c | 1,321$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.82 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc573…143abacked No | 22c | 1,154$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea2f…a8efbacked No | 21c | 1,120$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.22 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 12cpaid | +129.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…4db9backed No | 8c | 1,100$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 21c | 962.38$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.9 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 65c | 906.44$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.94 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.18per pick | 14cpaid | +183.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbb…89abbacked Yes | 75c | 888$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e4…b676backed Yes | 77c | 806$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.05 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 21c | 800$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.5 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 51c | 798.05$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.48 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +189.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddd2…65cfbacked No | 6c | 772.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed No | 9c | 743$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.59 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e11…b846backed No | 25c | 728.69$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ff…4dbebacked Yes | 66c | 650$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1085…2d69backed No | 8c | 631$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b80…109cbacked No | 10c | 596.96$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdfc…288cbacked Yes | 37c | 589.5$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.39 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 13c | 562.75$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.3 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4b…559cbacked No | 45c | 541$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +115.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ad…79d0backed Yes | 70c | 475$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.75 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff56…ca81backed No | 64c | 472$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0c…1e5bbacked No | 19c | 405$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 39c | 399.58$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.98 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +7.2wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 16c | 390$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.81 | 210 | 33.3%70 W · 140 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee74…f47abacked No | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked No | 11c | 380$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.63 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 13c | 378.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.11 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x490f…17e5backed No | 12c | 361.75$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.03 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes | 75c | 350$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc3…648ebacked Yes | 58c | 346.89$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 9c | 336.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…a9d7backed No | 12c | 324.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4354…b65bbacked Yes | 80c | 316.1$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 64c | 312.5$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f9…6f18backed No | 5c | 300.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc2…e3f4backed Yes | 79c | 281.63$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.51 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed No | 22c | 279.36$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.73 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ee…3d48backed No | 5c | 276.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee01…f1ffbacked No | 9c | 258.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 11c | 250.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4116…330abacked No | 22c | 235.86$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…f8efbacked Yes | 79c | 235.85$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.57 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34a5…4179backed No | 22c | 230.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked Yes | 79c | 230.15$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.96 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 66cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f8…dd0cbacked No | 36c | 224$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Yes | 74c | 222.56$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.76 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 73c | 222$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06db…35f5backed No | 9c | 220$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16ab…9221backed No | 10c | 219.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked No | 18c | 215$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…d61cbacked No | 17c | 206.66$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 20c | 200$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b8…2a82backed No | 24c | 200$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed Yes | 71c | 181.8$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked No | 28c | 178.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked Yes | 68c | 175.76$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +139%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb011…2d13backed Yes | 68c | 170.35$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 39c | 170$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.7 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 50c | 164$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59b1…4960backed No | 17c | 150.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e65…7bc1backed Yes | 65c | 150$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed No | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5954…2b5fbacked Yes | 78c | 150$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 10c | 149.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 44 | 2.3%1 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9c…99e2backed Yes | 70c | 143.69$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked No | 34c | 142.18$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…0ee5backed Yes | 71c | 140.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…9942backed No | 7c | 140.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x625c…a14ebacked No | 38c | 132.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will reconciliation bill be passed by July 31? this page
- Will reconciliation bill be passed by August 31? Yes won
- Will reconciliation bill be passed by July 2?No won
- Will reconciliation bill be passed by July 3?Yes won
- Will reconciliation bill be passed by July 4?Yes won
- Will reconciliation bill be passed by July 5?Yes won
- Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30? No won
- Will reconciliation bill be passed by Memorial day? No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.