TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will reconciliation bill be passed by July 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$334,277
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$346,539

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $334,277 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 146 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x169a…e191backed Yes73c49,017$35,782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,234.591100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb744…42f2backed No27c49,017$13,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,234.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6086…c78abacked No50c32,617$16,309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,308.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc93e…2db5backed Yes50c32,617$16,309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,308.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed Yes74c13,104$9,724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,379.52366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb98b…7e18backed No7c9,128$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594.3470%0 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed No28c6,744$1,882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,881.771464.3%9 W · 5 L+3.7wins+0.27per pick38cpaid+70.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x76b0…338abacked No8c4,757$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.99714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick35cpaid-72.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked No0c4,698$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.671320.8%1 W · 131 L+0.5wins0.00per pick0cpaid+60.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x542a…a81bbacked No22c4,689$1,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,052.993414.7%5 W · 29 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+65.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x00fa…30bebacked No6c4,000$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.6840%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes57c3,742$2,133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,608.434139%16 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick41cpaid+14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x528f…f71abacked No24c3,500$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$825.13333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick26cpaid-15.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked Yes74c3,494$2,597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$896.791070%7 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick62cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x912a…0f92backed No5c2,447$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.5219.5%2 W · 19 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-78.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed No48c2,367$1,135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,134.592944.8%13 W · 16 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+35.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfea2…b797backed No10c2,024$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.5333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-53.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0673…2e81backed No18c2,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-70.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d37…2f72backed No7c1,864$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.6440%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x03e4…a504backed No29c1,737$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked No10c1,646$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.962924.1%7 W · 22 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid-26%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe75c…f6c2backed No36c1,615$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580.221936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid+480.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x656e…65d2backed No9c1,610$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.7922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-57%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes70c1,592$1,109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.034630.4%14 W · 32 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick32cpaid+9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes72c1,545$1,118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.866035%21 W · 39 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-35.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0103…067bbacked Yes78c1,500$1,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3301100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96e0…b648backed No4c1,500$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6530%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed No9c1,343$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.593333.3%11 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-17.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed No1c1,335$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.245226.9%14 W · 38 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f88…ca51backed No21c1,331$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.5130%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed No7c1,322$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.81250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked No3c1,321$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.827521.3%16 W · 59 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-49.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc573…143abacked No22c1,154$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea2f…a8efbacked No21c1,120$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.221233.3%4 W · 8 L+2.6wins+0.22per pick12cpaid+129.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0f50…4db9backed No8c1,100$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked No21c962.38$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.950%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes65c906.44$592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.942231.8%7 W · 15 L+4.0wins+0.18per pick14cpaid+183.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6cbb…89abbacked Yes75c888$663 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.33450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+55.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8e4…b676backed Yes77c806$624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.052138.1%8 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-34.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed No21c800$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.53023.3%7 W · 23 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick21cpaid-31.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bab…1292backed Yes51c798.05$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.48771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.24per pick48cpaid+189.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xddd2…65cfbacked No6c772.1$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-65.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed No9c743$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.595836.2%21 W · 37 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e11…b846backed No25c728.69$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x87ff…4dbebacked Yes66c650$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.5540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-32.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1085…2d69backed No8c631$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.71315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick30cpaid-52.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b80…109cbacked No10c596.96$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid-12.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdfc…288cbacked Yes37c589.5$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.39850%4 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-0.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x80a4…22ccbacked No13c562.75$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.33844.7%17 W · 21 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+45.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d4b…559cbacked No45c541$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.32333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+115.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9ad…79d0backed Yes70c475$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.753100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xff56…ca81backed No64c472$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.08333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-56.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb0c…1e5bbacked No19c405$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes39c399.58$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.984062.5%25 W · 15 L+7.2wins+0.18per pick45cpaid+36.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No16c390$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.8121033.3%70 W · 140 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee74…f47abacked No26c384.62$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9cc…387abacked No11c380$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.632714.8%4 W · 23 L-2.7wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-72.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No13c378.84$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.114131.7%13 W · 28 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x490f…17e5backed No12c361.75$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.031030%3 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-53.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes75c350$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.5742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-41.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcc3…648ebacked Yes58c346.89$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.89250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No9c336.29$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304520%9 W · 36 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-53.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5874…a9d7backed No12c324.51$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4050%0 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4354…b65bbacked Yes80c316.1$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.54366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid-13.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes64c312.5$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.55540%22 W · 33 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+92.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa7f9…6f18backed No5c300.44$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick28cpaid-70.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fc2…e3f4backed Yes79c281.63$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.513100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b1f…1e95backed No22c279.36$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.73137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-72.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32ee…3d48backed No5c276.66$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee01…f1ffbacked No9c258.66$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked No11c250.63$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.572927.6%8 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4116…330abacked No22c235.86$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5230%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3069…f8efbacked Yes79c235.85$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.57560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-16.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34a5…4179backed No22c230.64$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0e1…7c9fbacked Yes79c230.15$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.961283.3%10 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.18per pick66cpaid+27.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd2f8…dd0cbacked No36c224$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.7330%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x094e…f10bbacked Yes74c222.56$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.762245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-26.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed Yes73c222$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.86235.5%22 W · 40 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06db…35f5backed No9c220$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-71.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16ab…9221backed No10c219.58$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x477f…19aabacked No18c215$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.77639.5%30 W · 46 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-24.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x71dd…d61cbacked No17c206.66$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-28%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No20c200$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3934129.3%100 W · 241 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5b8…2a82backed No24c200$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dee…f4e6backed Yes71c181.8$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe89…b88cbacked No28c178.05$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504431.8%14 W · 30 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcced…9ffebacked Yes68c175.76$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.682100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+139%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb011…2d13backed Yes68c170.35$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.57250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-26.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No39c170$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.77648.7%37 W · 39 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-18.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes50c164$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-23.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x59b1…4960backed No17c150.01$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e65…7bc1backed Yes65c150$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.52100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd66c…97e3backed No10c150$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.73425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5954…2b5fbacked Yes78c150$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-74.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed No10c149.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15442.3%1 W · 43 L+0.1wins0.00per pick2cpaid+96.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c9c…99e2backed Yes70c143.69$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaab9…a08dbacked No34c142.18$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.454835.4%17 W · 31 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+42.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6e4…0ee5backed Yes71c140.96$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09fe…9942backed No7c140.38$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x625c…a14ebacked No38c132.32$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.