Us Midterms · resolved market
Will reconciliation bill be passed by July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1823ca729b44080d0b113ff4e3dc0c7e1f6d92e04da53aef416e6727cd37fb21
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $102,713
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,234
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $102,713 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes | 5c | 8,372$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.47 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe036…616cbacked Yes | 6c | 7,896$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.16 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 27cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdad8…00f7backed Yes | 1c | 7,429$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1e…e41ebacked Yes | 4c | 5,647$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 8c | 5,008$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.97 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 2c | 3,905$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.72 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…a81bbacked Yes | 9c | 3,753$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.9 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc163…5a1dbacked Yes | 11c | 2,906$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.3 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a35…fc8ebacked Yes | 10c | 2,900$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.42 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89ae…4b0abacked Yes | 6c | 2,800$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.1 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa85a…6230backed Yes | 4c | 2,013$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 12c | 1,619$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.4 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7609…05cfbacked Yes | 6c | 1,500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes | 7c | 1,285$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdde1…ea9bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,284$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 4c | 1,180$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.11 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked Yes | 12c | 873.85$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.6 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 13c | 806.6$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.4 | 133 | 17.3%23 W · 110 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 4c | 777$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked Yes | 4c | 769.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71d6…8b0abacked Yes | 4c | 539.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50bc…78c2backed Yes | 4c | 500$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda08…72d4backed Yes | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 3c | 410.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf473…a595backed Yes | 32c | 403.06$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ba…b3f9backed Yes | 8c | 400$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b80…109cbacked No | 78c | 384.41$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e2…25f7backed Yes | 9c | 349.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ebf…83cebacked Yes | 10c | 347.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c7…d0e8backed Yes | 11c | 272.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5a…f7a4backed Yes | 9c | 223.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ec…b5fcbacked Yes | 12c | 214.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…ef50backed Yes | 8c | 213.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc929…88febacked Yes | 12c | 171.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92f4…f91bbacked Yes | 15c | 69.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will reconciliation bill be passed by July 2?this page
- Will reconciliation bill be passed by August 31? Yes won
- Will reconciliation bill be passed by July 31? Yes won
- Will reconciliation bill be passed by July 3?Yes won
- Will reconciliation bill be passed by July 4?Yes won
- Will reconciliation bill be passed by July 5?Yes won
- Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30? No won
- Will reconciliation bill be passed by Memorial day? No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.