Us Midterms · resolved market
Will reconciliation bill be passed by July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x923334328e7d1b86692e84c34101d314c994ff962c82060bfcaecd4451317d29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $404,335
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $391,426
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $404,335 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 284 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf4f5…f1c1backed No | 5c | 35,000$1,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,750 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5730…284dbacked No | 28c | 20,193$5,582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,582.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe036…616cbacked Yes | 48c | 19,079$9,176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,903.74 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 27cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed No | 4c | 17,298$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762.33 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bb…fb35backed No | 2c | 13,805$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed No | 12c | 9,082$1,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050.75 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 1c | 8,650$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.11 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -33%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes | 44c | 6,956$3,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,863.86 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed No | 10c | 6,329$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed Yes | 59c | 5,989$3,519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,469.53 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +123.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes | 67c | 5,384$3,621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,763 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 57c | 4,884$2,774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,110.72 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 22c | 4,641$1,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,025.58 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked No | 23c | 4,542$1,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,031.89 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 21c | 4,460$944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$943.95 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x630e…2f2fbacked No | 78c | 3,986$3,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.2wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 36c | 3,982$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,541.74 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 19c | 3,943$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768.8 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed No | 30c | 3,600$1,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,064 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x218f…7ef2backed Yes | 72c | 3,427$2,474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$953.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1eb…9118backed No | 6c | 3,196$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44bc…c53ebacked No | 9c | 3,050$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 12c | 2,854$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.62 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 20cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3736…b032backed No | 13c | 2,704$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +100%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 70c | 2,653$1,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$803.08 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee01…f1ffbacked No | 31c | 2,462$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f61…011abacked Yes | 39c | 2,288$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,388.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +96.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc165…480dbacked No | 3c | 2,286$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa85a…6230backed No | 1c | 2,264$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 18c | 2,208$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.81 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…7f7cbacked No | 62c | 2,192$1,354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,354.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 20c | 2,187$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.34 | 133 | 17.3%23 W · 110 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed No | 21c | 2,153$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.02 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…7fe9backed No | 20c | 2,090$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a35…fc8ebacked Yes | 42c | 1,773$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,033.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa292…2a5cbacked Yes | 20c | 1,706$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,362.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +261.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed No | 48c | 1,518$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$731.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5320…f3b2backed No | 14c | 1,464$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0328…92b6backed No | 14c | 1,419$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ec…b5fcbacked Yes | 68c | 1,407$953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.34 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a75…0ea6backed No | 15c | 1,369$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked No | 63c | 1,345$845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$845.42 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 36c | 1,326$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.72 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x199b…76d8backed Yes | 57c | 1,321$753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c7…82cebacked No | 20c | 1,250$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c4…83e3backed No | 14c | 1,200$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2040…7743backed No | 40c | 1,187$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…12febacked Yes | 26c | 1,171$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$871.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +95.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd986…1320backed No | 13c | 1,055$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddd2…65cfbacked No | 60c | 1,001$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…3143backed No | 72c | 1,000$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…aa40backed No | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed No | 64c | 1,000$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…c89abacked No | 23c | 1,000$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…1feabacked No | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3883…6bb0backed No | 27c | 1,000$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066a…550dbacked No | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x708d…ea78backed Yes | 71c | 941.93$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.92 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 34cpaid | +70%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x369f…2422backed No | 40c | 934.6$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.72 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf473…a595backed Yes | 67c | 927.3$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.02 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…ef50backed No | 1c | 919$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…338abacked No | 43c | 910.47$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.69 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 35cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked No | 54c | 886$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.93 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed No | 72c | 880.2$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.84 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 58c | 836.81$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.88 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No | 20c | 800.41$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 31cpaid | +231.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7609…05cfbacked Yes | 70c | 781.74$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed No | 5c | 780.95$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.53 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa841…5167backed No | 18c | 767.49$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ba…87ebbacked No | 13c | 755.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 16c | 750$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e0a…9f9bbacked No | 25c | 750$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5e…1d41backed No | 66c | 708.2$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9499…de32backed No | 42c | 696.71$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…0845backed No | 14c | 691.47$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…c6c4backed Yes | 61c | 675.14$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.95 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb318…2714backed No | 53c | 664.99$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ba…b3f9backed No | 72c | 632.52$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.37 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaf…5631backed No | 16c | 624.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e7…1749backed No | 19c | 624.1$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 10c | 618.33$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.83 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +79.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…4adbbacked No | 16c | 610.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d0…ac9abacked Yes | 77c | 600$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45f7…4ce6backed No | 14c | 600$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 28c | 599.29$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.16 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7d…6cc4backed No | 57c | 574$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.44 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae38…6247backed No | 5c | 572.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff4…a683backed No | 18c | 569.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…a061backed No | 45c | 560.35$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc163…5a1dbacked Yes | 41c | 555.95$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.51 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3469…d62fbacked No | 76c | 555.18$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf52…b944backed Yes | 73c | 550$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd479…cc26backed Yes | 76c | 548.44$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9da1…b861backed No | 43c | 534.98$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…d1bfbacked No | 55c | 528.94$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9d…dc13backed No | 35c | 525.57$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb61…58ffbacked Yes | 80c | 521.66$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed No | 41c | 518.61$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.69 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x442f…16fcbacked No | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed No | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -10.4wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -52%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will reconciliation bill be passed by July 3?this page
- Will reconciliation bill be passed by August 31? Yes won
- Will reconciliation bill be passed by July 2?No won
- Will reconciliation bill be passed by July 31? Yes won
- Will reconciliation bill be passed by July 4?Yes won
- Will reconciliation bill be passed by July 5?Yes won
- Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30? No won
- Will reconciliation bill be passed by Memorial day? No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.