TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will reconciliation bill be passed by July 4?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$277,738
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$262,067

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $277,738 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 259 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes57c49,192$27,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,292.2915150.3%76 W · 75 L+0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed No46c12,296$5,635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,634.821735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+39.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed No41c10,337$4,244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,243.965836.2%21 W · 37 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf7c…f2cbbacked No11c8,026$910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$910.1616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick5cpaid+1,840.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked No43c7,887$3,379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,379.482927.6%8 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3d3…d424backed Yes59c7,022$4,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,881.811540%6 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.17per pick23cpaid+123.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfdfc…288cbacked No34c5,600$1,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,920850%4 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-0.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked No25c4,524$1,149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,148.7850%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd34b…0004backed No46c4,465$2,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,064.530%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked No28c4,379$1,228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,228.492924.1%7 W · 22 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid-26%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76b0…338abacked No15c4,261$629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$628.57714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick35cpaid-72.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x00fa…30bebacked No49c4,203$2,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,042.7940%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed Yes51c3,980$2,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,967.324957.1%28 W · 21 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+32.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed No8c3,876$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.68130%0 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb98b…7e18backed No24c3,831$923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$923.4770%0 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf78…2846backed No56c3,512$1,966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,966.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes74c3,215$2,374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$841.211338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-45.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed No0c3,069$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.995226.9%14 W · 38 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes64c3,014$1,919 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,094.383737.8%14 W · 23 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-31.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes53c2,959$1,573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,385.514425%11 W · 33 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-48.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes63c2,855$1,795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,059.84475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+16.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed No44c2,823$1,242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,242.0120%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x022e…2a77backed No29c2,771$805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805.43837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-39.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed No23c2,698$614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$614.215111.8%6 W · 45 L-0.2wins0.00per pick12cpaid-75.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x369f…2422backed No11c2,610$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.61136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1085…2d69backed No30c2,550$758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7581315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick30cpaid-52.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x912a…0f92backed No4c2,497$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.33219.5%2 W · 19 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-78.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe085…5474backed No5c2,215$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa95f…92f9backed Yes75c2,124$1,584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$539.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa292…2a5cbacked Yes44c2,000$880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1202100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+261.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x63a6…f308backed Yes71c1,978$1,413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$564.75250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-30%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf473…a595backed Yes64c1,872$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$671.94771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick52cpaid+15.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x016b…98d1backed No13c1,819$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1fa…1a14backed No59c1,763$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,040.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xecd7…c614backed No41c1,685$693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$692.67250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-30.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6fba…bdbdbacked Yes66c1,520$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.88475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+34.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2040…7743backed No45c1,519$678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$678.420%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes37c1,513$564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$948.874630.4%14 W · 32 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick32cpaid+9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf513…8297backed No45c1,498$668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$667.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x542a…a81bbacked Yes54c1,466$796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$669.643414.7%5 W · 29 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+65.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe99c…725ebacked Yes56c1,357$757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$600.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+79.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e9c…1115backed No33c1,259$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-40.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f88…ca51backed No28c1,244$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.2930%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x59d9…11bcbacked No48c1,208$576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$576.09837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-28.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed No39c1,200$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4731225%3 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick28cpaid+27.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9cc…387abacked No34c1,183$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.642714.8%4 W · 23 L-2.7wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-72.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No6c1,143$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.94224.5%1 W · 21 L-3.4wins-0.15per pick20cpaid-81.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No60c1,111$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666.63429.4%10 W · 24 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xad7b…63dabacked No44c1,101$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.36633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-56.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x477a…7f7cbacked No57c1,065$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607.2320%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x06ab…7a12backed No10c1,045$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ff4…a683backed No8c1,035$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-75.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed No51c1,010$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.463116.1%5 W · 26 L-3.7wins-0.12per pick28cpaid-54.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes50c1,007$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507.18250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed No28c1,000$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.215145.1%23 W · 28 L+6.8wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+103%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1d7f…a878backed No25c1,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+160.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e40…c89dbacked No34c1,000$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340147.1%1 W · 13 L-2.7wins-0.19per pick27cpaid-86.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2359…f72bbacked Yes62c981.63$605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3771533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe036…616cbacked No33c967.05$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.07944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.17per pick27cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc5bb…ff01backed No50c870$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.6450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-29.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5493…9094backed No38c851.85$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.31333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-40%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaab9…a08dbacked No41c816$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.744835.4%17 W · 31 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+42.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c5e…1d41backed No51c780.63$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40020%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd5a…f7a4backed No18c777.42$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.8620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed No23c715.26$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.521233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-39.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x472a…a9a5backed No55c699.91$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.42250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-26.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf35e…94cabacked No70c683.13$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d37…2f72backed No34c675.57$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.4440%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5676…b103backed Yes68c660.52$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c1e…cbbbbacked No45c639.62$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.3720%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd74e…407cbacked No32c631.42$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.38450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-29.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2408…8b32backed Yes72c631$455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.11250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf215…8ff0backed No44c630.41$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick59cpaid-42.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe165…8211backed No44c606.3$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.15633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-52.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2027…6d60backed Yes60c600$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2401643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45f7…4ce6backed No8c600$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No22c599.99$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13031434.1%107 W · 207 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1514…2624backed Yes74c599.99$446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-55.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7609…05cfbacked Yes61c587.58$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.16366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x094e…f10bbacked No27c561.94$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.722245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-26.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x502b…a1d5backed No41c550$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2251711.8%2 W · 15 L-3.3wins-0.20per pick31cpaid-73.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x226d…f49ebacked No40c532.68$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.0730%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2711…cd8bbacked No48c519.83$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.2950%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x39a1…af66backed No17c500$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89ae…4b0abacked No41c500$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-27.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda08…72d4backed Yes73c500$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1352850%14 W · 14 L+3.4wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+41.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4d08…733dbacked No28c500$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.140%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed No33c495$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.356431.3%20 W · 44 L-10.4wins-0.16per pick47cpaid-52%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x0af8…9454backed Yes61c494.77$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.772352.2%12 W · 11 L+3.2wins+0.14per pick38cpaid+10.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5a24…71e8backed No36c493.53$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.51333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-56.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc99…e0a3backed No43c474.94$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.781216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-69.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No35c472$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.35540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-44.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3469…d62fbacked No60c463.32$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.9920%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x09bb…f8b1backed No44c454.08$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003145.2%14 W · 17 L-3.3wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-37.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x08ec…b5fcbacked Yes67c450.59$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.02966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd479…cc26backed Yes55c445.17$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.212100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+56.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No24c437.87$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.615044%22 W · 28 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-22.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa03…c6c4backed Yes60c432.48$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.93977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick65cpaid+22.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x30d1…4525backed No22c426.54$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.13933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06d0…059abacked No54c400$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21620%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.