TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$372,220
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$370,488

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $372,220 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 191 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x542a…a81bbacked Yes9c30,790$2,833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,832.763414.7%5 W · 29 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+65.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe036…616cbacked Yes7c10,061$737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$736.5944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.17per pick27cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaab9…a08dbacked No77c8,143$6,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,912.644835.4%17 W · 31 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+42.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes18c7,855$1,441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,441.245145.1%23 W · 28 L+6.8wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+103%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x110a…38a8backed Yes1c7,325$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.0120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes17c6,437$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,100475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+16.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes23c5,972$1,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,347.9633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-38.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9386…fdfebacked No77c5,833$4,471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,361.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x630f…f727backed Yes7c5,469$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.38250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-33.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Yes23c5,000$1,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1501855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick51cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes12c4,900$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.15137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-72.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6cbb…89abbacked Yes17c4,471$763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$763.32450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+55.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a35…fc8ebacked Yes10c4,423$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.73560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes17c4,417$771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$770.566035%21 W · 39 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-35.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7994…c512backed Yes9c3,473$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.151040%4 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+29.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes15c3,421$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.4611.6%1 W · 60 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick5cpaid-71%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d61…3c32backed Yes3c3,201$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.27333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick13cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea3e…b956backed Yes16c3,034$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.461931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-54.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0362…9661backed Yes9c2,706$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.411154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick44cpaid-21.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes12c2,627$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.622231.8%7 W · 15 L+4.0wins+0.18per pick14cpaid+183.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes3c2,475$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.574630.4%14 W · 32 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick32cpaid+9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes13c2,449$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.762927.6%8 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes9c2,294$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.032817.9%5 W · 23 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick20cpaid+59.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes16c2,273$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.022924.1%7 W · 22 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid-26%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50b2…c94abacked No79c2,258$1,775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482.711050%5 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes9c2,248$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.5818026.1%47 W · 133 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc57b…0a2bbacked Yes19c2,100$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick23cpaid+96.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ae2…d63ebacked Yes8c2,092$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61c7…82cebacked Yes17c1,702$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.540%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd602…0105backed Yes7c1,595$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.2740%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes12c1,220$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.7834129.3%100 W · 241 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde5b…9e50backed Yes8c1,208$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d0e…49e3backed Yes18c1,191$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.6425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-48%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x662f…ac37backed No79c1,168$918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45cc…6400backed No76c1,165$891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.932740.7%11 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-18.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes13c1,119$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.22585.2%3 W · 55 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-35.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes1c1,111$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.222114.3%3 W · 18 L-2.6wins-0.12per pick27cpaid-69.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc412…592dbacked Yes1c1,050$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.54136.6%15 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-40.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed Yes20c951.22$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.14957.1%28 W · 21 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+32.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked Yes7c926.53$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.422722.2%6 W · 21 L-6.4wins-0.24per pick46cpaid-70.4%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes15c902.51$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.8213317.3%23 W · 110 L-10.0wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd053…f7c0backed Yes19c847$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.73714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-68.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe8e4…b676backed Yes15c835.77$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.012138.1%8 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-34.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ef0…f7e0backed Yes20c768.41$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c74…ba3fbacked Yes14c744.37$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes4c739.01$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.653429.4%10 W · 24 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes18c737.39$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.671838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cf8…5317backed Yes24c730$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32d1…b949backed Yes19c659.14$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98e3…c80fbacked Yes30c658.33$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20080%0 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7124…70c1backed Yes25c647.98$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.39714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-78%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes5c642.45$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.785226.9%14 W · 38 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe75c…f6c2backed Yes9c632.94$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.961936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid+480.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37a4…a487backed No55c613.34$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.311822.2%4 W · 14 L-4.7wins-0.26per pick48cpaid-63.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x912a…0f92backed Yes4c605.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.63219.5%2 W · 19 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-78.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes12c581.25$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.6233238.6%128 W · 204 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-30%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes26c569.21$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.151030%3 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-57.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9647…c18abacked Yes19c526.73$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa15c…10d3backed Yes67c526.31$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x990f…7c08backed Yes16c521.47$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes7c500$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.54936.7%18 W · 31 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b69…3197backed Yes10c500$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x241f…ef50backed Yes4c497$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked No65c478.57$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.73250%16 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0d8…f752backed Yes7c433$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.230%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb5f…9a7dbacked Yes9c428.39$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.31250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-32.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes3c400$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.216632.5%54 W · 112 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa113…93f4backed Yes16c383.53$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.592817.9%5 W · 23 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-51.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc178…35b3backed No33c370.69$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.99250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+51.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes37c370.61$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.61944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-23.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30d1…4525backed Yes13c364.78$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.28933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8815…e147backed Yes4c360.11$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.83450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-29.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22c6…cf2abacked Yes26c341.26$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.720%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1471…7926backed No77c326.03$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes14c299.99$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.44062.5%25 W · 15 L+7.2wins+0.18per pick45cpaid+36.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x6203…d744backed Yes4c285.56$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes14c285.54$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.2945035.1%158 W · 292 L-37.8wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2a68…57c2backed No76c275.08$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe24e…350cbacked Yes7c273.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5954…2b5fbacked Yes12c250$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-74.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ffb…a834backed Yes8c249.83$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.99922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-20.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3548…5037backed Yes8c245.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes11c239.98$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8680%0 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb277…d809backed Yes10c234.26$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34fb…26ccbacked Yes28c230$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.15250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-28.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe501…df65backed Yes4c224.69$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1402…45fdbacked Yes11c221.91$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b1c…320ebacked Yes17c221.56$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb7e…e533backed Yes17c221$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b21…ec40backed Yes32c218.6$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d74…ee45backed Yes32c217$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.822842.9%12 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+32.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3385…4217backed Yes9c216$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes7c213.06$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4427222.1%60 W · 212 L-15.0wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-44.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a1a…83eabacked Yes35c200$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7060%0 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e73…6697backed No70c200$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.42040%8 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed No70c200$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603333.3%11 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-17.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes16c200$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323844.7%17 W · 21 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+45.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed Yes13c200$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.24214.3%6 W · 36 L-4.9wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-62.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes7c198.25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.264131.7%13 W · 28 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a8a…ddc0backed Yes7c196$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.