TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xd0d8…f752

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
112
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: World Politics, grading 67 out of 100 (+0.15 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 67 out of 100; worst Us Midterms at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle Eastlast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT5145.1%23 W · 28 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+24.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 51 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$22.5
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$90.01
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$318Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$318
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.5
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$17
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$102
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$24
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$32
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+25.8%+$20.5
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+46%+$31.5
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+68.1%+$40.5
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+93.2%+$40.74
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$17
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+525%+$84
Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$64
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$61
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$85
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$129Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$129
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+614.3%+$172
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+270.4%+$146
Will Witkoff meet with Iranian officials by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+52.6%+$34.46
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+47.1%+$16
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$167Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+79.9%+$133.2
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST+96.1%+$98
Israel parliament dissolved in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$160.33
Showing 25 of 51 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 3, 2026, EDT2070%14 W · 6 L+6.8wins+0.34per pick36cpaid+110.7%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
World Politics — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$26
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+183.2%+$97.02
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$94.5
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+222.6%+$69
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+44.2%+$46
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+138.1%+$46.4
Will Catalin Drula be the next Mayor of Bucharest?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$118Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+35.1%+$41.6
Yoon arrested by July 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2025, EDT+150%+$97.19
Will Chan Santokhi be the next president of Suriname after the election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2025, EDT+85.2%+$26.68
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after the election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$309Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$308.78
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$218Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2025, EDT+169.6%+$369.92
Will Lee Jun-seok win between 5% and 8% of the vote in the South Korea election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT+504.4%+$91.8
Will Kim Moon-soo win more than 40% of the vote in the South Korea election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.2
Will Lee Jun-seok win between 8% and 11% of the vote in the South Korea election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT+584.9%+$170.8
Will South Korea presidential election winner get over 50% of votes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$38
Will the National Democratic Party win the most seats in the 2025 Suriname election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$465Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT+132.3%+$615
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+155.1%+$54.72
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$141Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+228.3%+$320.88
Will Dan or Simion win the diaspora vote?backed Dan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$1,214Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,214.22
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$128Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT+181.3%+$232
All 20 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST1752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US government shutdown Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+284.6%+$147.99
US forces in Venezuela again by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$33
Another US military action against Iran before 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$15
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$33.02
Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+28.2%+$15.4
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+34.1%+$35.6
Will Eric Adams endorse Cuomo?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.09
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+170.3%+$63
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT+79.4%+$17.7
US-Iran nuclear deal before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$155Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+40.7%+$63.34
Will Trump meet with Netanyahu before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$51.16
Will Elon Musk create a new political party before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$138
Will Elon Musk create a new political party by July 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.46
Trump invokes the Insurrection Act before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$36
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with Japan before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+143.9%+$59
Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Monday June  23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2025, EDT+144.6%+$68.85
Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Sunday June  22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$305Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2025, EDT+31.1%+$95
All 17 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-47.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick24cpaid-23%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2025, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jun 10, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.86per pick14cpaid+609.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times May 16–23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2025, EDT+609.2%+$85.9
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+226.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$153Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+226.8%+$347
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $115k in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$108.19
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.