World Politics · resolved market
Will Dan or Simion win the diaspora vote?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x818a1ec3439b780cdbefe9e1f962a187cb8747e7e6b146f3634fee12f80ad652
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Simionof Dan, Simion
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,947,262
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,397,784
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,947,262 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,274 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f5a…23e7backed Dan | 21c | 194,401$40,119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40,119.02 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb8…f4f1backed Simion | 79c | 189,992$150,726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39,266.26 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x573b…6285backed Dan | 20c | 132,015$26,591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,591.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a85…e856backed Dan | 5c | 130,427$6,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,133.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Dan | 10c | 119,697$11,796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,796.16 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8df3…887abacked Dan | 21c | 108,061$23,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,104.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb72e…7dfbbacked Dan | 17c | 107,993$18,182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,182.3 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x063b…0711backed Simion | 78c | 90,478$70,417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,061.13 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62cf…5826backed Dan | 12c | 84,291$9,788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,787.73 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48b0…083ebacked Dan | 19c | 80,086$14,843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,842.71 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a20…2787backed Dan | 20c | 78,452$15,695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,695.06 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c0…e552backed Dan | 11c | 73,725$8,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,171.71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 27cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe426…9766backed Simion | 79c | 68,818$54,597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,221.42 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb89b…b1fbbacked Dan | 6c | 64,841$3,954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,954.49 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +63%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa16f…6df1backed Dan | 15c | 64,767$9,866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,865.53 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bc…9be9backed Simion | 80c | 61,129$48,671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,457.63 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed Simion | 79c | 55,006$43,665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,340.8 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +103.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c6…01c0backed Dan | 15c | 49,439$7,301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,300.89 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x533c…4308backed Dan | 4c | 48,939$2,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,001 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +233.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0174…6d29backed Dan | 1c | 44,439$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…867ebacked Dan | 15c | 44,398$6,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,500 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0114…a8abbacked Dan | 20c | 41,505$8,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,126.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +51%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdeb…1a50backed Dan | 11c | 40,553$4,609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,609 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe1…e986backed Dan | 25c | 40,009$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2081…a70abacked Dan | 3c | 39,596$1,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,024.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x931f…e97ebacked Dan | 8c | 38,833$3,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,220.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed Simion | 79c | 38,364$30,342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,021.98 | 93 | 34.4%32 W · 61 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf371…9812backed Dan | 16c | 36,331$5,830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,829.62 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…e414backed Simion | 79c | 34,097$26,777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,319.89 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c24…e1afbacked Dan | 18c | 30,020$5,314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,313.85 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 14cpaid | +172.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ae…6374backed Simion | 80c | 30,000$24,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,000 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d81…fc1ebacked Dan | 8c | 27,832$2,224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,224.03 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80fc…0e31backed Dan | 20c | 27,732$5,435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,435.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6d…ffc4backed Dan | 6c | 27,382$1,569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,569 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1aa…63cabacked Dan | 26c | 26,869$7,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,013.76 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…c89abacked Dan | 8c | 26,087$2,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,095.58 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed Simion | 80c | 25,889$20,596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,292.85 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e48…2decbacked Dan | 2c | 25,748$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…1594backed Dan | 9c | 23,709$2,251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,250.97 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Dan | 0c | 23,274$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | -7.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4f05…6cf9backed Dan | 18c | 23,222$4,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,158.77 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0716…f036backed Dan | 16c | 23,200$3,683 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,682.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeac8…0d86backed Dan | 10c | 21,810$2,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,100.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 21cpaid | +261.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d05…f421backed Dan | 2c | 21,474$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.85 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98e3…c80fbacked Dan | 3c | 21,183$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Dan | 1c | 21,172$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.07 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x723c…fc4abacked Dan | 12c | 20,666$2,539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,538.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +232.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x281d…0c73backed Dan | 6c | 20,000$1,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,167 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c7b…fba1backed Dan | 11c | 20,000$2,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,150 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe190…a627backed Dan | 20c | 19,863$3,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,999.32 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3417…1ec9backed Dan | 8c | 19,285$1,549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,548.93 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 16cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e02…5553backed Dan | 9c | 19,221$1,821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,820.67 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x022e…2a77backed Simion | 79c | 17,836$14,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,716.8 | 80 | 25%20 W · 60 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +187.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5895…aababacked Dan | 19c | 17,100$3,224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,223.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf88f…c334backed Dan | 17c | 17,028$2,856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,855.87 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +174.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x415b…215abacked Dan | 5c | 16,885$922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$921.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4817…6bdbbacked Dan | 18c | 16,422$2,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,919.98 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +3.5wins | +0.35per pick | 35cpaid | +110%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8b…856ebacked Dan | 7c | 16,371$1,164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,164.08 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b8…4ee0backed Dan | 18c | 16,180$2,945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,945.19 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -57%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a8b…9263backed Dan | 4c | 16,155$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d0…de55backed Simion | 79c | 15,475$12,249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,226.56 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Dan | 15c | 15,436$2,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,292.39 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0da4…d9e9backed Dan | 17c | 15,257$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,599.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3037…8bf0backed Dan | 5c | 15,000$805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$805 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d1…87a7backed Dan | 21c | 14,563$3,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,126 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2dd…82d3backed Dan | 7c | 14,522$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,007.67 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 17cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e32…923cbacked Dan | 16c | 14,176$2,298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,298.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x155c…1b09backed Dan | 10c | 14,012$1,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,394.69 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Dan | 17c | 13,946$2,393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,393.05 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed Dan | 17c | 13,875$2,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,391.55 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54e1…5263backed Dan | 15c | 13,176$1,939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,938.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3d…351dbacked Simion | 78c | 13,153$10,208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,945.62 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +28%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2419…2eedbacked Dan | 18c | 13,064$2,409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,409.09 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd93c…40ddbacked Dan | 23c | 12,803$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dec…6c57backed Dan | 21c | 12,577$2,676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,675.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe682…6f7dbacked Dan | 11c | 12,493$1,326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,326.13 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe98f…a7b9backed Dan | 3c | 12,412$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.74 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07c6…c6dabacked Dan | 17c | 11,721$1,997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,997.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948a…950ebacked Dan | 22c | 11,705$2,536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,535.64 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +141.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d3…c5fdbacked Dan | 21c | 11,166$2,297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,296.96 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf157…00f3backed Dan | 2c | 11,129$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.71 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | +115.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eed…e72abacked Dan | 28c | 11,091$3,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,146.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb713…e361backed Dan | 10c | 11,056$1,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,053 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec9a…dad1backed Dan | 20c | 10,899$2,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,222.5 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dc…35f9backed Dan | 8c | 10,719$864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$864.37 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b6b…d4d8backed Dan | 2c | 10,575$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.09 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…d56fbacked Dan | 16c | 10,450$1,656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,655.91 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7784…0455backed Dan | 5c | 10,374$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.94 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +106.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x800a…be16backed Dan | 19c | 10,078$1,908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,908.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf8…3309backed Dan | 20c | 10,029$2,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,051 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +253.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fa…16cbbacked Simion | 80c | 10,000$7,979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,020.58 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc378…e4a8backed Dan | 6c | 9,682$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.71 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.48per pick | 19cpaid | +409.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Dan | 16c | 9,523$1,556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,556.46 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29cd…cbc5backed Dan | 3c | 9,509$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.34 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…994dbacked Dan | 19c | 9,212$1,790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,790 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab6…cfecbacked Dan | 5c | 8,984$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.42 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aff…fc5dbacked Dan | 17c | 8,904$1,508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,508.22 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…c311backed Dan | 17c | 8,821$1,457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,457.07 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ad…9c79backed Dan | 21c | 8,787$1,869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,869.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 33cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed08…9922backed Dan | 12c | 8,619$1,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,045.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.