Us Politics · resolved market
Will Elon Musk create a new political party by July 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00aca67cd9a52e7a2cea2f28d499120d230ff1f3fc317bf04669d3e8507b3cff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,128,799
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,035,332
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,128,799 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 284 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7504…9c69backed Yes | 9c | 73,533$6,651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,651.21 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed Yes | 8c | 73,263$5,848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,848.3 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ce…691abacked Yes | 4c | 25,394$1,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,084.83 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f0…e173backed Yes | 8c | 25,000$1,935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,935.45 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf635…e876backed Yes | 6c | 22,896$1,383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,383.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed Yes | 10c | 22,381$2,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,309.83 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd29…102cbacked Yes | 8c | 19,166$1,492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,492.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…dd31backed Yes | 11c | 19,000$1,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,995 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed Yes | 13c | 17,123$2,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,156.83 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 10c | 16,553$1,705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,705.36 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89ed…52d3backed Yes | 15c | 16,479$2,394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,394.16 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55a9…2c79backed Yes | 20c | 16,229$3,277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,276.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked Yes | 6c | 15,994$923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$923.32 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71e5…d10bbacked Yes | 5c | 14,352$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.55 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fee…0402backed Yes | 11c | 13,054$1,449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,448.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc60…127cbacked Yes | 12c | 12,810$1,559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,558.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -37%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d6…54b0backed Yes | 9c | 12,503$1,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,177.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…eb5fbacked Yes | 21c | 9,600$2,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,052.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…658cbacked Yes | 13c | 9,560$1,290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,290.16 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5348…e4ffbacked Yes | 5c | 8,800$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59db…c353backed Yes | 6c | 8,747$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.85 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9885…210ebacked Yes | 12c | 8,468$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980.34 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9b…49cabacked Yes | 13c | 8,410$1,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,052.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 10c | 8,199$782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$781.93 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x155c…1b09backed Yes | 9c | 8,047$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.02 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 8c | 7,933$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.98 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae5…178dbacked Yes | 13c | 7,576$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +124.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2f…21babacked Yes | 8c | 7,266$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.9 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 9cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…9e88backed Yes | 7c | 6,604$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.27 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 15c | 6,390$948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$947.92 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8468…10c2backed Yes | 10c | 6,264$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcce…3e55backed Yes | 6c | 6,168$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes | 9c | 6,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.47 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…7802backed Yes | 12c | 5,759$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.98 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 5,247$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…e3c2backed Yes | 10c | 5,168$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf5…6638backed Yes | 11c | 5,140$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d61…3c32backed Yes | 16c | 4,948$777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777.09 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 8c | 4,758$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.38 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96e0…b648backed Yes | 13c | 4,664$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.07 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…f8c4backed Yes | 21c | 4,369$919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$918.91 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5954…2b5fbacked Yes | 10c | 4,310$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.51 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63bf…e319backed Yes | 6c | 4,211$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.03 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 11c | 4,152$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.04 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f5…f1c1backed No | 70c | 4,006$2,823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,183.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 15c | 3,748$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.32 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9cf…7df7backed Yes | 10c | 3,713$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Yes | 10c | 3,553$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.11 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 11c | 3,327$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.82 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76f3…ae51backed Yes | 10c | 3,003$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.9 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked Yes | 5c | 3,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.49 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0764…8c45backed Yes | 14c | 2,965$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 8c | 2,720$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.2 | 82 | 26.8%22 W · 60 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47ae…1fbabacked Yes | 62c | 2,716$1,694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,694.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.38per pick | 72cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbea8…beb8backed Yes | 15c | 2,627$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b8…2210backed Yes | 14c | 2,589$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf759…0221backed Yes | 12c | 2,500$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a52…3e04backed Yes | 10c | 2,439$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc20e…0a5ebacked Yes | 8c | 2,275$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb54a…c622backed Yes | 10c | 2,252$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a4…ea52backed Yes | 13c | 2,214$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 30cpaid | +79%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 10c | 2,179$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227 | 150 | 32.7%49 W · 101 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 13c | 2,133$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.71 | 106 | 30.2%32 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6e…0cf9backed Yes | 15c | 2,112$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 51cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10d6…a48cbacked Yes | 9c | 2,077$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.28 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1f…ba52backed Yes | 9c | 2,046$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.03 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4eb…1028backed Yes | 7c | 2,039$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.57 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…6deabacked Yes | 8c | 2,025$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2dd…82d3backed Yes | 9c | 2,000$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.26 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 5c | 1,976$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.48 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x231e…9297backed Yes | 7c | 1,910$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.92 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x656a…be53backed Yes | 10c | 1,874$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb9…1cb4backed Yes | 7c | 1,867$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2dc…b090backed Yes | 12c | 1,836$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…b797backed Yes | 19c | 1,795$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9706…13b9backed Yes | 13c | 1,745$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.46 | 52 | 7.7%4 W · 48 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x267c…9b16backed Yes | 4c | 1,713$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.98 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…8781backed Yes | 21c | 1,654$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe99c…725ebacked Yes | 13c | 1,625$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.29 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 29cpaid | +136.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4f…c44bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,597$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +4.8wins | +0.18per pick | 34cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…3524backed Yes | 9c | 1,500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 10c | 1,484$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.36 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | -6.7wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc81…e9bcbacked Yes | 32c | 1,450$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98b0…5c7ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,440$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 12c | 1,400$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.7 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6d…60c8backed Yes | 10c | 1,369$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.12 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4956…e2c7backed Yes | 11c | 1,322$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d4e…25a6backed Yes | 12c | 1,314$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.06 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4273…19d8backed Yes | 14c | 1,300$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.4 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63fa…55c7backed Yes | 20c | 1,269$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed Yes | 3c | 1,250$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 14c | 1,200$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.32 | 184 | 45.1%83 W · 101 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…5c54backed Yes | 16c | 1,200$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14bb…882bbacked Yes | 12c | 1,180$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe86c…ba88backed Yes | 19c | 1,137$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 80c | 1,125$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.99 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad09…3376backed Yes | 13c | 1,117$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1630…e3fdbacked Yes | 9c | 1,117$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Yes | 11c | 1,098$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.92 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 7c | 1,000$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk create a new political party by July 4?this page
- Will Elon Musk create a new political party before August?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk create a new political party in 2025?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk create a new political party in June?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.