Us Politics · resolved market
Will Elon Musk create a new political party before August?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f9b80acee3dff860af4b12f2399b07a8eca79376143e2c3565bcf833a96b4a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,213,549
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,184,764
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,213,549 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 834 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x53e5…6177backed No | 0c | 40,823$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.15 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7504…9c69backed Yes | 58c | 34,804$20,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,749.95 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4762…ba70backed No | 63c | 31,776$20,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,004.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…e288backed No | 9c | 29,076$2,698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,697.79 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +48%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 0c | 27,378$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.13 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…3b03backed No | 1c | 27,319$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.65 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 33cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe16…23c1backed No | 0c | 23,529$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5e25backed No | 1c | 22,750$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed No | 0c | 21,800$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37d1…4e28backed No | 69c | 15,000$10,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,350 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x830e…7099backed Yes | 56c | 14,372$8,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,293.11 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…dd31backed Yes | 37c | 14,000$5,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,820 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59db…c353backed Yes | 37c | 13,550$5,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,480.8 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 2c | 13,476$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.84 | 115 | 38.3%44 W · 71 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed No | 0c | 13,286$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.23 | 114 | 28.1%32 W · 82 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db7…c901backed Yes | 35c | 12,751$4,461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,289.77 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes | 31c | 12,501$3,931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,569.79 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x920a…cb78backed Yes | 28c | 12,007$3,362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,644.95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf41…1587backed No | 0c | 12,000$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6406…d487backed No | 72c | 11,419$8,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,221.31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4a…7a0cbacked No | 0c | 11,369$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2970…e1c9backed No | 64c | 11,000$7,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,039.97 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…81d1backed No | 53c | 10,471$5,557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,556.94 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed Yes | 27c | 10,000$2,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,299.98 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ce…691abacked No | 60c | 9,155$5,468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,467.83 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4be…76b7backed Yes | 36c | 9,152$3,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,855.52 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b0b9backed Yes | 39c | 9,062$3,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,501.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +154.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55a9…2c79backed Yes | 39c | 8,956$3,519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,437.51 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…7802backed Yes | 33c | 8,759$2,915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,844.38 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0764…8c45backed Yes | 68c | 8,701$5,947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,753.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cb…3bbdbacked No | 61c | 8,685$5,285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,285.34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 0c | 8,500$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066a…550dbacked No | 70c | 8,461$5,899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,899.3 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 4c | 8,300$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.82 | 151 | 24.5%37 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f61…011abacked Yes | 40c | 7,778$3,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,677.67 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 26cpaid | +422.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked Yes | 30c | 7,520$2,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,263.53 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x243f…5a02backed No | 2c | 7,251$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x155c…1b09backed Yes | 33c | 7,004$2,311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,692.57 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed Yes | 31c | 6,934$2,146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,787.36 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…658cbacked Yes | 35c | 6,872$2,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,462.66 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 66c | 6,500$4,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,304.99 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba4…c08bbacked Yes | 37c | 6,446$2,415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,030.52 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…d889backed Yes | 30c | 6,433$1,955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,478.16 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fb…57e5backed No | 57c | 6,347$3,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,647.05 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…1da2backed No | 67c | 5,886$3,929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,929 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…a925backed Yes | 43c | 5,825$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,325.05 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d50…d407backed No | 1c | 5,590$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 72c | 5,400$3,914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,914 | 184 | 45.1%83 W · 101 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 1c | 5,191$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.51 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4db9…c71ebacked Yes | 41c | 5,051$2,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,979.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9706…13b9backed Yes | 42c | 5,005$2,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,879.37 | 52 | 7.7%4 W · 48 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7b…5485backed No | 2c | 5,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33c2…9818backed No | 58c | 5,000$2,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,900 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked Yes | 33c | 5,000$1,633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,366.77 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5b…a718backed No | 69c | 5,000$3,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,449.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d3…3dd5backed No | 68c | 4,891$3,315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,314.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed No | 70c | 4,866$3,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,405.96 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cee…a307backed No | 0c | 4,800$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 31c | 4,763$1,477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,286.78 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 35c | 4,459$1,539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,920.41 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa396…1a83backed No | 0c | 4,417$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2f…21babacked Yes | 38c | 4,276$1,633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,642.7 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 9cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a73…616cbacked No | 59c | 4,034$2,396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,395.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…12a9backed No | 73c | 3,934$2,872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,871.74 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39a1…af66backed No | 42c | 3,906$1,622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,621.69 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.19per pick | 32cpaid | -74%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f81…33a7backed Yes | 39c | 3,886$1,511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,374.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +157.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes | 67c | 3,880$2,591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,288.77 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc81…e9bcbacked Yes | 38c | 3,818$1,436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,381.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0759…ec3bbacked No | 1c | 3,800$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 64c | 3,769$2,407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,407.12 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…f8c4backed No | 70c | 3,659$2,563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,563 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca6…a262backed Yes | 61c | 3,612$2,207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,404.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked Yes | 30c | 3,600$1,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,520.97 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2031…2325backed Yes | 33c | 3,500$1,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,344.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 70c | 3,463$2,418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,044.82 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf747…f687backed No | 68c | 3,331$2,249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,249.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8af…04e7backed No | 62c | 3,186$1,982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,981.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 37c | 3,105$1,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,970.69 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x96e0…b648backed Yes | 32c | 3,095$983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,112.02 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b2…2983backed No | 65c | 3,067$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c97…1b68backed No | 44c | 3,036$1,331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,331.2 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed7c…da06backed Yes | 29c | 3,014$874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,139.61 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +5.1wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed No | 0c | 3,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde88…24cebacked Yes | 43c | 3,000$1,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,710 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6a…bee7backed No | 69c | 3,000$2,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,069.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 0c | 2,948$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…6deabacked No | 68c | 2,942$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 61c | 2,779$1,708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,708.35 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98ca…87bdbacked No | 0c | 2,750$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 14c | 2,561$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.05 | 111 | 20.7%23 W · 88 L | +10.9wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +212.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 40c | 2,494$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,503.83 | 119 | 36.1%43 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…2427backed No | 61c | 2,447$1,491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,491.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed Yes | 57c | 2,438$1,395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,043 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fa…1a14backed Yes | 32c | 2,416$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,635.15 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +3.8wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +277.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe86c…ba88backed Yes | 45c | 2,326$1,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,284.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d1…8ce8backed No | 70c | 2,318$1,617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,617.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7536…4e6ebacked Yes | 33c | 2,301$761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,540.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…6657backed No | 19c | 2,202$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.49 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x400b…705fbacked No | 69c | 2,175$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9885…210ebacked Yes | 31c | 2,139$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,476.19 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk create a new political party before August?this page
- Will Elon Musk create a new political party by July 4?No won
- Will Elon Musk create a new political party in 2025?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk create a new political party in June?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.