Us Politics · resolved market
Will Elon Musk create a new political party in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a2fbd6b2903641f940af5165b151d970915360667a8af3ab3e24c94f3eb002c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,195,795
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,194,363
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,195,795 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 716 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5235…c04abacked No | 54c | 47,143$25,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,599.75 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked No | 60c | 42,140$25,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,439.76 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…e288backed No | 10c | 37,598$3,925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,924.92 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +48%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked No | 13c | 34,665$4,449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,448.66 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x155c…1b09backed Yes | 26c | 25,444$6,719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,724.69 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed No | 0c | 25,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 70c | 18,798$13,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,248.14 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked Yes | 44c | 18,502$8,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,281.91 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 57c | 16,823$9,595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,595.14 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 59c | 15,487$9,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,412.64 | 176 | 33%58 W · 118 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 14c | 15,437$2,159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,277.34 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed Yes | 45c | 15,000$6,802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,198.08 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a73…616cbacked Yes | 65c | 14,250$9,257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,993.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9885…210ebacked Yes | 22c | 13,471$2,937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,534.49 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ce…691abacked No | 53c | 13,317$7,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,065.86 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6c…40adbacked Yes | 49c | 12,741$6,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,441.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +102.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52ad…337dbacked Yes | 18c | 12,000$2,153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,847.36 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed Yes | 63c | 11,829$7,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,331.31 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x415a…d1e2backed Yes | 48c | 11,504$5,554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,949.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9c…cd75backed No | 0c | 11,256$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.57 | 114 | 28.1%32 W · 82 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 70c | 10,638$7,487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,486.56 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…7802backed Yes | 22c | 10,380$2,319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,060.53 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59db…c353backed Yes | 45c | 10,280$4,602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,678.23 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7131…29ccbacked No | 0c | 10,022$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 40cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0ced…12b2backed Yes | 45c | 10,000$4,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,499.98 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dc…9026backed No | 77c | 9,866$7,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,590.05 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +119.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…fe12backed Yes | 46c | 9,262$4,234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,028.17 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x267c…9b16backed Yes | 29c | 9,004$2,572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,432.16 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2031…2325backed Yes | 45c | 9,000$4,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,949.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5e25backed No | 0c | 9,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf63…0a8cbacked No | 58c | 8,434$4,879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,878.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 66c | 8,378$5,562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,815.47 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8e…6a53backed Yes | 76c | 8,371$6,358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,012.91 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd602…0105backed Yes | 26c | 8,292$2,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,103.09 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 72c | 8,265$5,958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,958.32 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9339…ed6fbacked Yes | 39c | 8,182$3,156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,025.55 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 40c | 7,767$3,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,633.92 | 180 | 33.3%60 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e56…dee1backed Yes | 46c | 7,384$3,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,996.54 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 26c | 7,086$1,842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,243.85 | 168 | 54.8%92 W · 76 L | +22.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe899…0899backed Yes | 44c | 6,296$2,797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,499.47 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +127.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2f…21babacked Yes | 8c | 6,245$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,745.02 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 9cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1195…fff1backed Yes | 17c | 5,913$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,912.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +195.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked Yes | 24c | 5,748$1,385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,363.73 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 72c | 5,464$3,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,939.52 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…154bbacked Yes | 28c | 5,000$1,389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,610.57 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…7bd8backed Yes | 18c | 5,000$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,120 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cb…3bbdbacked No | 78c | 5,000$3,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,919.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked No | 54c | 4,889$2,617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,616.53 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8365…e9a6backed No | 76c | 4,789$3,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,639.58 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55a9…2c79backed Yes | 44c | 4,736$2,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,667.55 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…658cbacked Yes | 32c | 4,613$1,478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,134.69 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x063a…eb4bbacked No | 57c | 4,583$2,608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,607.88 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x931c…98e1backed Yes | 56c | 4,554$2,554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 37c | 4,537$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | +18.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcaab…24ddbacked Yes | 15c | 4,397$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,727.72 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…d889backed Yes | 41c | 4,391$1,798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,593.07 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd323…9e96backed Yes | 44c | 4,256$1,894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,362.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +124.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ca…4faebacked Yes | 24c | 4,167$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,166.67 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed No | 52c | 4,000$2,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,080 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 41c | 3,832$1,581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,251.39 | 184 | 45.1%83 W · 101 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1e…2019backed Yes | 39c | 3,523$1,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,153.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +157.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…4597backed No | 79c | 3,460$2,719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,718.9 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd5…c889backed Yes | 30c | 3,312$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,312.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +231.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x217e…3a4cbacked Yes | 50c | 3,307$1,641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,665.74 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked No | 72c | 3,238$2,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,331.56 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7248…8cb4backed Yes | 41c | 3,143$1,282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,860.95 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb78e…30e3backed No | 49c | 3,076$1,516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,516.19 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6441…139ebacked No | 53c | 3,023$1,602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,602.02 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.8wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x066a…550dbacked No | 60c | 3,000$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,799.99 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 44c | 2,975$1,308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,308.43 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…64c0backed Yes | 50c | 2,903$1,458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,444.82 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +130.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe99c…725ebacked Yes | 44c | 2,835$1,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,588.34 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 29cpaid | +136.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf743…ac84backed Yes | 43c | 2,819$1,202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,616.64 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7536…4e6ebacked Yes | 45c | 2,807$1,263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,543.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 25c | 2,760$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,061.06 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked Yes | 22c | 2,750$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,157.49 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +143.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x718b…4e9ebacked No | 55c | 2,734$1,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,503.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 14c | 2,711$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,330.68 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 16c | 2,621$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.11 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 37c | 2,613$955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,658.41 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6453…5553backed Yes | 42c | 2,605$1,106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,498.79 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 13c | 2,592$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,249.26 | 167 | 25.1%42 W · 125 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes | 42c | 2,538$1,064 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,473.87 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc160…ce0abacked Yes | 17c | 2,500$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,075 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x400b…705fbacked Yes | 46c | 2,485$1,152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,332.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 56c | 2,466$1,377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,377.38 | 135 | 56.3%76 W · 59 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fb…57e5backed No | 71c | 2,379$1,688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,688.12 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 60c | 2,258$1,347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,346.78 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8452…9056backed No | 66c | 2,193$1,452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,451.68 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 2,181$1,254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,254.22 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdc…3ad2backed Yes | 53c | 2,164$1,145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,018.59 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa25b…170cbacked Yes | 44c | 2,156$943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,213.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 25c | 2,124$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,596.99 | 28 | 10.7%3 W · 25 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 60c | 2,068$1,232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,231.8 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d1…1e37backed Yes | 48c | 2,066$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,066.32 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked No | 78c | 2,057$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,599.97 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +96.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 40c | 2,019$817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,202.19 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x482b…3266backed Yes | 37c | 2,018$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,262.26 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8b…1ea1backed Yes | 41c | 2,000$820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,180 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d46…6233backed Yes | 17c | 2,000$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,660 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.45per pick | 35cpaid | +191.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk create a new political party in 2025?this page
- Will Elon Musk create a new political party before August?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk create a new political party by July 4?No won
- Will Elon Musk create a new political party in June?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.