TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$818,933
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$796,621

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $818,933 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 854 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes22c46,220$10,264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,264.0137740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc040…beacbacked Yes16c27,890$4,559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,559.416526.1%43 W · 122 L+7.7wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed No71c15,505$11,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,474.9138237.7%144 W · 238 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9648…6825backed Yes33c14,542$4,765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,764.8314821.6%32 W · 116 L-24.5wins-0.17per pick38cpaid-61.3%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x853c…bd03backed Yes28c13,573$3,753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,75313441.8%56 W · 78 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed Yes32c12,881$4,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,181.6217737.3%66 W · 111 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed No69c11,894$8,219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,675.3235631.7%113 W · 243 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed Yes28c11,863$3,289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,288.8435347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x75bd…1feabacked Yes34c9,168$3,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,126.24524.4%11 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid+44.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked No51c8,906$4,565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,341.8236227.9%101 W · 261 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc96e…f1f9backed No77c8,490$6,516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,973.296165.6%40 W · 21 L+4.1wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd4b7…65c0backed No68c8,366$5,715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,650.861566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+24.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b40…8ab4backed Yes18c7,863$1,386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,386.25034%17 W · 33 L-4.5wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-30.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x34f9…0540backed Yes19c7,379$1,406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4067837.2%29 W · 49 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74bf…2a6ebacked No76c7,151$5,468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,682.672045%9 W · 11 L-2.7wins-0.14per pick59cpaid-32%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbd04…fbb0backed Yes20c6,826$1,338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,337.8614228.2%40 W · 102 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+34%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b8f…2c14backed Yes23c6,727$1,578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,577.7711222.3%25 W · 87 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick21cpaid+26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe620…03acbacked Yes56c6,625$3,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,710.051050%5 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+86.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x20d9…5490backed Yes19c6,339$1,184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,184.315851.7%30 W · 28 L+8.7wins+0.15per pick37cpaid+47.4%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes16c6,177$1,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,002.935921.4%77 W · 282 L-23.8wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-42.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes62c6,168$3,833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,832.547462.2%46 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick62cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c5b…333dbacked Yes15c6,045$891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$890.6860%0 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Yes17c5,960$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$997.979139.6%36 W · 55 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8df2…788dbacked Yes38c5,884$2,224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2241233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-50.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x162f…798dbacked No54c5,827$3,146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,680.2816638.6%64 W · 102 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c59…1766backed Yes43c5,564$2,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,380.098247.6%39 W · 43 L+8.2wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+67.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9d73…216bbacked Yes26c5,437$1,408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,407.8120749.3%102 W · 105 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xddef…d52bbacked Yes62c5,056$3,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,143.542213.6%3 W · 19 L-4.6wins-0.21per pick35cpaid-78.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x52a1…7833backed Yes45c4,936$2,217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,216.791050%5 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+33%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2c4…c131backed Yes20c4,722$953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$952.7617646.6%82 W · 94 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf23…aa95backed No80c4,153$3,317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$836.0712054.2%65 W · 55 L+10.7wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+3.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked No36c4,066$1,462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,603.6313738%52 W · 85 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e1f…c855backed Yes46c4,000$1,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,84010639.6%42 W · 64 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7726…4aeebacked Yes20c4,000$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$779.992339.1%9 W · 14 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4478…02a4backed No62c3,803$2,368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,435.7528734.5%99 W · 188 L+21.3wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+0.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes5c3,546$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.84769.9%47 W · 429 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+75.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x641b…5433backed Yes15c3,269$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.846060%36 W · 24 L+7.9wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+125.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x166a…d7edbacked Yes14c3,155$451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.9512740.9%52 W · 75 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+17.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes22c3,016$672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$671.5425339.5%100 W · 153 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x030a…acfcbacked No76c2,891$2,198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$693.957337%27 W · 46 L+0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes27c2,780$754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753.7247334%161 W · 312 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7447…a16dbacked Yes29c2,721$787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$786.8716125.5%41 W · 120 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ede…4284backed No67c2,700$1,809 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8911100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb12a…cb82backed Yes37c2,699$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0004320.9%9 W · 34 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes27c2,658$707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$707.4336634.4%126 W · 240 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9352…2227backed No70c2,618$1,828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$789.9712341.5%51 W · 72 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x430f…5947backed Yes39c2,599$1,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,012.261650%8 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+61.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2637…26e1backed No69c2,584$1,787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$796.986338.1%24 W · 39 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes32c2,555$819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$818.9720336.9%75 W · 128 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-20%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5188…c804backed Yes12c2,408$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.9712650.8%64 W · 62 L+11.3wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+22.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes31c2,353$726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$726.1524149.4%119 W · 122 L+1.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb13…2de9backed Yes35c2,339$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$810.062334.8%8 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-27.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes28c2,246$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624.9189617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe0c1…7edabacked No68c2,201$1,502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$698.31757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-20.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34ab…3eb5backed No57c2,109$1,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$909.8622627.9%63 W · 163 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2940…304cbacked Yes31c2,073$637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$637.0316131.7%51 W · 110 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick34cpaid+25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x233b…1f2cbacked Yes16c2,022$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.0910240.2%41 W · 61 L+0.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid+18.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2779…239abacked Yes16c2,000$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3104341.9%18 W · 25 L+3.8wins+0.09per pick33cpaid-15.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe1b3…1426backed Yes13c2,000$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.9913360.9%81 W · 52 L+18.4wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+31.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x02a1…dd72backed Yes14c2,000$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.985442.6%23 W · 31 L+4.7wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+23.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x71ab…f015backed Yes16c1,932$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.122441.7%10 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38d0…68c5backed No70c1,881$1,313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$568.121735.3%6 W · 11 L-4.2wins-0.25per pick60cpaid-45.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd5db…3c45backed Yes22c1,692$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.4712037.5%45 W · 75 L+9.1wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x692e…ee58backed Yes32c1,653$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5242825%7 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-31.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes17c1,651$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.6616225.9%42 W · 120 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-12.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes33c1,639$547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546.7415347.1%72 W · 81 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-22.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No64c1,559$996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.9316651.2%85 W · 81 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65bf…4b91backed Yes14c1,559$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.929217.4%16 W · 76 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7c1…3e0bbacked No69c1,554$1,079 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475.434652.2%24 W · 22 L-4.2wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-22.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x02f7…dd8fbacked Yes28c1,543$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.391540%6 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-25.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes27c1,502$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.521521.9%47 W · 168 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick16cpaid+29.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes32c1,500$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.9916041.9%67 W · 93 L+12.3wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+67.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe33a…d8f7backed Yes17c1,500$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.9813138.9%51 W · 80 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes14c1,494$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.536626.8%98 W · 268 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x458e…51b4backed Yes62c1,473$919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$918.531127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.22per pick49cpaid-64.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4eef…3fcbbacked No67c1,462$979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482.41742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-35.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5eec…e3bbbacked Yes32c1,415$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.31911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick24cpaid-74.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e87…3534backed No77c1,413$1,088 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.54850%24 W · 24 L+6.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-3.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x645a…fd84backed No76c1,382$1,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.2624759.1%146 W · 101 L-1.1wins0.00per pick60cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74e6…99e8backed Yes55c1,350$737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$736.7110041%41 W · 59 L+0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid+30.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3462…de48backed Yes9c1,330$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.71414.3%2 W · 12 L-2.8wins-0.20per pick34cpaid-77.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe397…bfcbbacked Yes26c1,298$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.8110747.7%51 W · 56 L+6.6wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+26%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd76…77bdbacked No53c1,289$681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$607.278750.6%44 W · 43 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+17.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes50c1,288$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.3722529.8%67 W · 158 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7ee…0e97backed Yes31c1,271$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.566045%27 W · 33 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick51cpaid+4.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc468…7a10backed No78c1,237$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.731464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick57cpaid-11.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x771a…6be6backed Yes23c1,230$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.8920%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes5c1,200$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.72742.9%8 W · 266 L+0.5wins0.00per pick3cpaid-58.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes12c1,200$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.6442311.6%49 W · 374 L-2.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde8f…8fd8backed No75c1,166$875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.53250%16 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-21.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e73…6697backed Yes11c1,135$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.819639.8%78 W · 118 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked No69c1,126$773 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.7822333.2%74 W · 149 L+12.9wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+12.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x84c0…eb6cbacked Yes7c1,112$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bab…8322backed Yes1c1,101$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166426.6%17 W · 47 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick21cpaid+20.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Yes22c1,100$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.6317839.9%71 W · 107 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed No77c1,093$838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.7322262.2%138 W · 84 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-2.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0dc5…a303backed Yes14c1,063$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14510227.5%28 W · 74 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-36.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb119…8d46backed Yes35c1,051$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.434617.4%8 W · 38 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick21cpaid+50.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8706…0587backed No78c1,048$815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.1610555.2%58 W · 47 L+7.8wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes34c1,038$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.6122846.1%105 W · 123 L+22.6wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+17.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.