Middle East · resolved market
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa37173a88dc5622e1c42e9f8f5a9d20d70b9b99e52cb76e64fb0ad95503fcaef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $818,933
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $796,621
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $818,933 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 854 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 22c | 46,220$10,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,264.01 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 16c | 27,890$4,559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,559.4 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 71c | 15,505$11,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,474.91 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 33c | 14,542$4,765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,764.83 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed Yes | 28c | 13,573$3,753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,753 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 32c | 12,881$4,182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,181.62 | 177 | 37.3%66 W · 111 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 69c | 11,894$8,219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,675.32 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 28c | 11,863$3,289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,288.84 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…1feabacked Yes | 34c | 9,168$3,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,126.2 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 51c | 8,906$4,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,341.82 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96e…f1f9backed No | 77c | 8,490$6,516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,973.29 | 61 | 65.6%40 W · 21 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b7…65c0backed No | 68c | 8,366$5,715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,650.86 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b40…8ab4backed Yes | 18c | 7,863$1,386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,386.2 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34f9…0540backed Yes | 19c | 7,379$1,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,406 | 78 | 37.2%29 W · 49 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74bf…2a6ebacked No | 76c | 7,151$5,468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,682.67 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed Yes | 20c | 6,826$1,338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,337.86 | 142 | 28.2%40 W · 102 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8f…2c14backed Yes | 23c | 6,727$1,578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,577.77 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe620…03acbacked Yes | 56c | 6,625$3,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,710.05 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +86.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20d9…5490backed Yes | 19c | 6,339$1,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,184.31 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +8.7wins | +0.15per pick | 37cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 16c | 6,177$1,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,002.9 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 62c | 6,168$3,833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,832.54 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5b…333dbacked Yes | 15c | 6,045$891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$890.68 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Yes | 17c | 5,960$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997.97 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8df2…788dbacked Yes | 38c | 5,884$2,224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,224 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked No | 54c | 5,827$3,146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,680.28 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed Yes | 43c | 5,564$2,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,380.09 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +8.2wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 26c | 5,437$1,408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,407.81 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddef…d52bbacked Yes | 62c | 5,056$3,144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,143.54 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -4.6wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x52a1…7833backed Yes | 45c | 4,936$2,217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,216.79 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +33%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed Yes | 20c | 4,722$953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$952.76 | 176 | 46.6%82 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…aa95backed No | 80c | 4,153$3,317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$836.07 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +10.7wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 36c | 4,066$1,462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,603.63 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed Yes | 46c | 4,000$1,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,840 | 106 | 39.6%42 W · 64 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7726…4aeebacked Yes | 20c | 4,000$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779.99 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed No | 62c | 3,803$2,368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,435.75 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 5c | 3,546$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.8 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x641b…5433backed Yes | 15c | 3,269$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.84 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +125.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x166a…d7edbacked Yes | 14c | 3,155$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.95 | 127 | 40.9%52 W · 75 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 22c | 3,016$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$671.54 | 253 | 39.5%100 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…acfcbacked No | 76c | 2,891$2,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$693.95 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 27c | 2,780$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.72 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 29c | 2,721$787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$786.87 | 161 | 25.5%41 W · 120 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ede…4284backed No | 67c | 2,700$1,809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$891 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb12a…cb82backed Yes | 37c | 2,699$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 27c | 2,658$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.43 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9352…2227backed No | 70c | 2,618$1,828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$789.97 | 123 | 41.5%51 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x430f…5947backed Yes | 39c | 2,599$1,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,012.26 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2637…26e1backed No | 69c | 2,584$1,787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$796.98 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 32c | 2,555$819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$818.97 | 203 | 36.9%75 W · 128 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 12c | 2,408$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.97 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 31c | 2,353$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726.15 | 241 | 49.4%119 W · 122 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb13…2de9backed Yes | 35c | 2,339$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810.06 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 28c | 2,246$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.91 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c1…7edabacked No | 68c | 2,201$1,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.31 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed No | 57c | 2,109$1,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$909.86 | 226 | 27.9%63 W · 163 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2940…304cbacked Yes | 31c | 2,073$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.03 | 161 | 31.7%51 W · 110 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x233b…1f2cbacked Yes | 16c | 2,022$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.09 | 102 | 40.2%41 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked Yes | 16c | 2,000$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 13c | 2,000$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.99 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | +18.4wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x02a1…dd72backed Yes | 14c | 2,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.98 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71ab…f015backed Yes | 16c | 1,932$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.12 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38d0…68c5backed No | 70c | 1,881$1,313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.12 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -4.2wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed Yes | 22c | 1,692$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.47 | 120 | 37.5%45 W · 75 L | +9.1wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x692e…ee58backed Yes | 32c | 1,653$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 17c | 1,651$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.66 | 162 | 25.9%42 W · 120 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 33c | 1,639$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.74 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 64c | 1,559$996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.93 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…4b91backed Yes | 14c | 1,559$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.92 | 92 | 17.4%16 W · 76 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c1…3e0bbacked No | 69c | 1,554$1,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.43 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…dd8fbacked Yes | 28c | 1,543$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.39 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 27c | 1,502$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.5 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes | 32c | 1,500$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.99 | 160 | 41.9%67 W · 93 L | +12.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe33a…d8f7backed Yes | 17c | 1,500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.98 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 14c | 1,494$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.5 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x458e…51b4backed Yes | 62c | 1,473$919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$918.53 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4eef…3fcbbacked No | 67c | 1,462$979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.41 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eec…e3bbbacked Yes | 32c | 1,415$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.31 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e87…3534backed No | 77c | 1,413$1,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.5 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +6.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 76c | 1,382$1,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.26 | 247 | 59.1%146 W · 101 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74e6…99e8backed Yes | 55c | 1,350$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$736.71 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3462…de48backed Yes | 9c | 1,330$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.7 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…bfcbbacked Yes | 26c | 1,298$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.81 | 107 | 47.7%51 W · 56 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd76…77bdbacked No | 53c | 1,289$681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.27 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 50c | 1,288$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.37 | 225 | 29.8%67 W · 158 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ee…0e97backed Yes | 31c | 1,271$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.56 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…7a10backed No | 78c | 1,237$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.73 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x771a…6be6backed Yes | 23c | 1,230$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 5c | 1,200$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.7 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 12c | 1,200$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.64 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde8f…8fd8backed No | 75c | 1,166$875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.5 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 11c | 1,135$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.8 | 196 | 39.8%78 W · 118 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked No | 69c | 1,126$773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.78 | 223 | 33.2%74 W · 149 L | +12.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84c0…eb6cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,112$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bab…8322backed Yes | 1c | 1,101$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 22c | 1,100$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.63 | 178 | 39.9%71 W · 107 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 77c | 1,093$838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.73 | 222 | 62.2%138 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc5…a303backed Yes | 14c | 1,063$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 102 | 27.5%28 W · 74 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb119…8d46backed Yes | 35c | 1,051$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.43 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8706…0587backed No | 78c | 1,048$815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.16 | 105 | 55.2%58 W · 47 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 34c | 1,038$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.61 | 228 | 46.1%105 W · 123 L | +22.6wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?this page
- Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?No won
- Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?No won
- Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.