Middle East · resolved market
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4067f81957ef1458e9712000807a4525c595f3c25a0c933ec2f69c0efb2e878
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,014,486
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,840,406
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,014,486 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 375 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c90…79f4backed Yes | 3c | 135,642$3,759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,759.31 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -92.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb01…ead3backed Yes | 3c | 73,678$2,522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,522 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 3c | 66,718$1,712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,712.29 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed Yes | 3c | 65,241$2,234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,233.84 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | -7.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf1…86b5backed Yes | 4c | 62,234$2,782 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,782.02 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 5c | 58,963$2,826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,826.01 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8c…9e5dbacked Yes | 2c | 53,318$1,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,184.38 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 4c | 45,134$1,781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,781.38 | 140 | 39.3%55 W · 85 L | +20.0wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 4c | 38,497$1,527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,526.96 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…7489backed Yes | 3c | 29,367$912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$912.47 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 3c | 26,801$882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$881.84 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes | 3c | 24,025$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.33 | 225 | 29.8%67 W · 158 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70ff…b65fbacked Yes | 3c | 22,159$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.11 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 2c | 21,888$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.06 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 3c | 21,702$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$688.83 | 177 | 37.3%66 W · 111 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x411a…5a86backed Yes | 3c | 21,684$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.98 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80a0…5708backed Yes | 4c | 21,298$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756.08 | 81 | 25.9%21 W · 60 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 3c | 20,040$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.52 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 4c | 19,958$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.72 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c5e…39a9backed Yes | 0c | 19,113$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 2c | 17,483$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.52 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12ac…8669backed Yes | 3c | 17,054$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.02 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +181.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 3c | 17,000$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5715…1616backed Yes | 3c | 15,334$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.85 | 115 | 27%31 W · 84 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 4c | 14,488$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.76 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Yes | 4c | 13,109$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.72 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 1c | 12,114$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.33 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x613c…e423backed Yes | 4c | 11,005$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.23 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 2c | 10,630$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.3 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…9402backed Yes | 4c | 10,209$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.25 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e17…9289backed Yes | 4c | 10,169$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.02 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddcd…725fbacked Yes | 0c | 10,100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -80%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2f…b226backed Yes | 3c | 10,091$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.09 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 5c | 9,615$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.24 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4a…bdf8backed Yes | 4c | 9,350$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.07 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc741…87bfbacked Yes | 3c | 9,152$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.29 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 6c | 8,945$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5eec…e3bbbacked Yes | 5c | 8,729$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.54 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked Yes | 6c | 8,124$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes | 2c | 8,016$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 58 | 8.6%5 W · 53 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86f…256fbacked Yes | 1c | 7,518$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.22 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…f939backed Yes | 8c | 7,436$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 4c | 7,140$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.84 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x131a…73f9backed Yes | 8c | 7,043$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.86 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 6,709$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.72 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49aa…917abacked Yes | 3c | 6,622$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d16…7228backed Yes | 4c | 6,563$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.44 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 6,543$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.85 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes | 4c | 6,403$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.36 | 167 | 39.5%66 W · 101 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 6,112$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.57 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 5,887$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 4c | 5,735$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.06 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…3dc3backed Yes | 8c | 5,672$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.24 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +406.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39a6…ebddbacked Yes | 2c | 5,555$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.66 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2637…26e1backed Yes | 4c | 5,502$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.27 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a08…cce8backed Yes | 5c | 5,299$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.82 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 27cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74e6…99e8backed Yes | 7c | 5,000$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 226 | 27.9%63 W · 163 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 4c | 5,000$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 223 | 33.6%75 W · 148 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xceca…3f67backed Yes | 3c | 4,929$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 5c | 4,789$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.86 | 306 | 35.9%110 W · 196 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa02…5b9abacked Yes | 3c | 4,604$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.97 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1d…1c4bbacked Yes | 8c | 4,551$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.02 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e96…7b13backed Yes | 1c | 4,510$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 3c | 4,400$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.8 | 197 | 6.6%13 W · 184 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8f…2c14backed Yes | 4c | 4,229$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.1 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd590…5eeebacked Yes | 10c | 4,126$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 2c | 4,101$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.33 | 272 | 33.8%92 W · 180 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79a8…bb66backed Yes | 3c | 4,027$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.1 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a2…b1a0backed Yes | 5c | 3,919$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.18per pick | 13cpaid | +400.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97cb…c910backed Yes | 2c | 3,830$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +10.8wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | +250.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed Yes | 5c | 3,797$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | -15.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd324…b23cbacked Yes | 3c | 3,716$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 2c | 3,671$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.56 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddef…d52bbacked Yes | 6c | 3,625$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -4.6wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 5c | 3,544$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.67 | 113 | 20.4%23 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes | 2c | 3,529$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.25 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02a1…dd72backed Yes | 3c | 3,500$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 5c | 3,500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc26…32cabacked Yes | 7c | 3,447$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.93 | 87 | 19.5%17 W · 70 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…aa95backed Yes | 3c | 3,442$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.32 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +10.7wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 3c | 3,376$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.92 | 203 | 6.4%13 W · 190 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf01…c782backed Yes | 4c | 3,352$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.95 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ae…2af1backed Yes | 2c | 3,142$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5b…333dbacked Yes | 4c | 3,115$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.75 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 2c | 3,010$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.28 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…f94ebacked Yes | 4c | 3,000$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.84 | 161 | 31.7%51 W · 110 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef9f…8924backed Yes | 3c | 2,805$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.66 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d2…88aebacked Yes | 5c | 2,729$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 5c | 2,614$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.7 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x032a…cf07backed Yes | 1c | 2,512$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 50 | 0%0 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551b…b47ebacked Yes | 3c | 2,511$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.62 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec1c…5452backed Yes | 2c | 2,500$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 5c | 2,422$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.27 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd83c…34f6backed Yes | 5c | 2,318$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.96 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x772c…804abacked Yes | 4c | 2,283$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 5c | 2,274$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.39 | 64 | 9.4%6 W · 58 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb790…107bbacked Yes | 4c | 2,207$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1b…5adbbacked Yes | 6c | 2,200$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.6 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 2c | 2,187$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 178 | 39.9%71 W · 107 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?this page
- Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?No won
- Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?No won
- Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.