Middle East · resolved market
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8374c773aa911e00a8d5c02e0130d57d18a9b5035b26e50f0e48ef1b74dd5c75
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $904,481
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $865,494
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $904,481 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 871 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 20c | 41,653$8,334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,334.22 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…beacbacked Yes | 16c | 40,582$6,525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,524.58 | 165 | 26.1%43 W · 122 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 62c | 21,525$13,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,174.38 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 28c | 13,698$3,797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,797.03 | 177 | 37.3%66 W · 111 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 24c | 12,985$3,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,128.93 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80a0…5708backed Yes | 24c | 12,056$2,885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,884.75 | 81 | 25.9%21 W · 60 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 24c | 10,959$2,659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,659.08 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e42…49edbacked No | 57c | 10,035$5,743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,292.42 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddcd…725fbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -80%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 41c | 9,418$3,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,900 | 241 | 49.4%119 W · 122 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddef…d52bbacked Yes | 71c | 8,961$6,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,400 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -4.6wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 30c | 8,285$2,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,497.11 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 21c | 8,100$1,663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,663.24 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 25c | 7,322$1,810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,810.16 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 45c | 7,038$3,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,138 | 215 | 25.1%54 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…05ecbacked Yes | 53c | 6,427$3,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,409.83 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b40…8ab4backed Yes | 31c | 6,017$1,875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,875.23 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 44c | 5,977$2,626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,351.66 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cca…50e9backed Yes | 10c | 5,692$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef9f…8924backed Yes | 30c | 5,648$1,688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,688.17 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x654a…cc32backed Yes | 39c | 5,267$2,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,073.68 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c90…79f4backed Yes | 18c | 5,200$916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$915.99 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -92.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02a1…dd72backed Yes | 17c | 5,032$837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$837.13 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 80c | 5,031$4,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,011.92 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 55c | 5,022$2,770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,769.76 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed Yes | 5c | 5,000$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.81 | 106 | 39.6%42 W · 64 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 26c | 4,903$1,271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,270.78 | 366 | 34.4%126 W · 240 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 14c | 4,655$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.59 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 32c | 4,544$1,454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,454.03 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…1feabacked Yes | 30c | 4,478$1,329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,328.69 | 45 | 24.4%11 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 25c | 4,453$1,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,096.38 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x131a…73f9backed Yes | 40c | 4,322$1,733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,733.31 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc96e…f1f9backed No | 76c | 4,276$3,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,025.52 | 61 | 65.6%40 W · 21 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 20c | 4,250$848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$848.43 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed Yes | 29c | 3,787$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100.21 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…7489backed Yes | 14c | 3,721$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.07 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 32c | 3,713$1,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,172.69 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2940…304cbacked Yes | 29c | 3,648$1,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,066.17 | 161 | 31.7%51 W · 110 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 32c | 3,400$1,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,076.1 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed Yes | 27c | 3,399$916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$916.33 | 176 | 46.6%82 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 16c | 3,225$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.93 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7726…4aeebacked Yes | 12c | 3,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked Yes | 50c | 2,995$1,495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,494.72 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 73c | 2,989$2,169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820.39 | 124 | 32.3%40 W · 84 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8f…6f11backed Yes | 39c | 2,887$1,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,130.08 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes | 3c | 2,850$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.2 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 37c | 2,658$989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$988.9 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 72c | 2,620$1,876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.7 | 222 | 62.2%138 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed No | 75c | 2,574$1,939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed Yes | 22c | 2,566$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.64 | 178 | 39.9%71 W · 107 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb22a…a80dbacked No | 75c | 2,557$1,915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.19 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc741…87bfbacked Yes | 38c | 2,498$955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$955.47 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 9c | 2,392$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.3 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…81d2backed Yes | 8c | 2,379$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.5 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5b…333dbacked Yes | 23c | 2,310$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.6 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x641b…5433backed Yes | 12c | 2,299$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.83 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +125.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cb…3f69backed Yes | 6c | 2,245$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.91 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +6.4wins | +0.13per pick | 38cpaid | +122.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8179…4403backed Yes | 31c | 2,190$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$684.83 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23d9…3a2ebacked Yes | 54c | 2,190$1,174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,174.08 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 59cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed No | 58c | 2,129$1,237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$891.57 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066a…550dbacked Yes | 36c | 2,067$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 47c | 2,050$968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$967.84 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabbe…8f37backed No | 72c | 2,039$1,461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.76 | 84 | 57.1%48 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 22c | 2,029$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.74 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x34f9…0540backed Yes | 22c | 2,019$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439 | 78 | 37.2%29 W · 49 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 19c | 2,005$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.93 | 101 | 39.6%40 W · 61 L | +10.2wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 36c | 2,000$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 203 | 36.9%75 W · 128 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed Yes | 25c | 2,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 12c | 2,000$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | +18.4wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9360…03e6backed Yes | 7c | 2,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…1fa7backed Yes | 36c | 2,000$727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726.78 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12a2…0e71backed No | 76c | 1,970$1,492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.22 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf75…29c6backed No | 68c | 1,967$1,332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.82 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe102…71dfbacked No | 80c | 1,952$1,561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.31 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41b4…10dabacked No | 60c | 1,889$1,142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747.66 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…f8f3backed Yes | 44c | 1,879$827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$827.39 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | +16.6wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x74b6…87d9backed No | 78c | 1,859$1,455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.19 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 4c | 1,799$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.93 | 247 | 12.1%30 W · 217 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe661…7816backed No | 57c | 1,746$1,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.18 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 70c | 1,715$1,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x946e…1225backed Yes | 24c | 1,694$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 23c | 1,670$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.53 | 253 | 39.5%100 W · 153 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eda…92a7backed Yes | 24c | 1,614$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.38 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ae…93eabacked No | 50c | 1,600$807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$793 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55af…b749backed Yes | 31c | 1,599$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +103.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes | 20c | 1,599$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.38 | 67 | 40.3%27 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,598$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.1 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 27c | 1,546$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.39 | 342 | 34.8%119 W · 223 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd109…6fa0backed Yes | 33c | 1,528$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.66 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f70…0ca9backed No | 67c | 1,500$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.16 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad26…589cbacked Yes | 30c | 1,500$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…468cbacked Yes | 18c | 1,500$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 142 | 27.5%39 W · 103 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x997d…decfbacked No | 27c | 1,488$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,087.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +85.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd324…b23cbacked Yes | 24c | 1,486$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…822abacked No | 74c | 1,404$1,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.95 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 7c | 1,400$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 490 | 23.5%115 W · 375 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e4c…bc78backed Yes | 71c | 1,398$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +131.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 79c | 1,388$1,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.77 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes | 24c | 1,376$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.04 | 154 | 36.4%56 W · 98 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6452…30a1backed No | 73c | 1,362$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.52 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +30%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?this page
- Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?No won
- Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?No won
- Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.