TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5eda…92a7

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
137
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 52 out of 100; worst Commodities at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle Eastlast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT9244.6%41 W · 51 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 92 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by August 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$2,212Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+70.8%+$1,566.95
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$142Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$142.49
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$488Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$487.68
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$146Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$145.6
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$522Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$522
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$248Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$247.59
Will there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$31.77
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$33
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$139Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$138.95
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$472Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$472.36
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+34.8%+$25.36
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$412Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$411.56
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$1,813Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,812.66
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$293Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$293.3
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$32
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$369Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+31.8%+$117.1
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$681Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+62.5%+$425.1
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$159Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$159
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$80.44
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.29
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$449Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$448.74
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$51
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$159.91
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$516Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$515.56
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$3,269Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+102.1%+$3,337.46
Showing 25 of 92 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved May 29, 2026, EDT1020%2 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-55.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.14
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.01
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.12
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.8
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.81
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.5
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+203%+$203
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$451Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$450.54
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+43%+$51.65
All 10 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick41cpaid-77.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Commodities — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-67.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Music — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Aug 2, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid+3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick12cpaid+61%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick19cpaid-39.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-37.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-37.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.5
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.41
All 2 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+71.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$117Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+71.5%+$83.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Jun 18, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Valorant — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Stagebacked NRG Academy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$36
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 3, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$213Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+31.7%+$67.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$240Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+25.3%+$60.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.48
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$935Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$934.95
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Aug 7, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: BESTIA vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Group Stagebacked BESTIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.3
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.