TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: BESTIA vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yawara Esportsof BESTIA, Yawara Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$115,736
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$130,161

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $115,736 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 165 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x29b5…cc6cbacked BESTIA78c20,949$16,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,340.425,02855%2,763 W · 2,265 L+112.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30c7…ac3bbacked Yawara Esports22c15,000$3,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,699.9475452.7%397 W · 357 L+27.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd30…f316backed BESTIA78c13,628$10,630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,629.8412249.2%60 W · 62 L+6.9wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+17.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0993…525fbacked Yawara Esports22c10,000$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,799.916454.7%35 W · 29 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+32.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x27e4…4803backed BESTIA51c10,000$5,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,099.93754.1%20 W · 17 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Yawara Esports49c3,446$1,688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,757.355,47446.9%2,565 W · 2,909 L+38.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Yawara Esports22c3,181$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,481.1817954.2%97 W · 82 L+0.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid+4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8adb…e4f6backed Yawara Esports22c3,000$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,34029449.3%145 W · 149 L-10.3wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Yawara Esports22c2,500$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,949.981,08050.9%550 W · 530 L+38.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5135…7217backed BESTIA77c1,962$1,518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,518.241,60552.6%845 W · 760 L+57.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked BESTIA53c1,773$945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945.163,41529.3%1,001 W · 2,414 L-275.1wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Yawara Esports34c1,544$529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,014.6967645%304 W · 372 L-24.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Yawara Esports20c1,539$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,231.171,40833.7%475 W · 933 L+43.0wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeebb…0b96backed Yawara Esports44c1,501$664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$837.2935739.2%140 W · 217 L+0.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed44…4f76backed Yawara Esports46c1,330$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$720.0551842.3%219 W · 299 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Yawara Esports20c1,324$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,059.5451252.3%268 W · 244 L+16.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf80…3259backed BESTIA25c1,273$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.710056%56 W · 44 L+6.8wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Yawara Esports22c1,205$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$939.956941.3%235 W · 334 L-21.0wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Yawara Esports23c1,087$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$836.965,81037.8%2,196 W · 3,614 L+78.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd00…952dbacked BESTIA57c1,065$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607.045867.2%39 W · 19 L+5.4wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+16.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Yawara Esports22c1,058$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82461054.6%333 W · 277 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a3f…4333backed BESTIA79c1,038$824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$824.0945854.8%251 W · 207 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ebc…a33dbacked Yawara Esports55c1,006$556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450.2163057.1%360 W · 270 L+40.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked Yawara Esports22c1,000$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78010136.6%37 W · 64 L-9.9wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-24.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5944…764ebacked BESTIA47c965.96$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4547450%37 W · 37 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed BESTIA80c949.37$759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$759.559055.3%326 W · 264 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Yawara Esports47c787.48$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.846,46642.9%2,777 W · 3,689 L-78.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed BESTIA58c724.43$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.871,56729.8%467 W · 1,100 L-86.0wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-39%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3881…804ebacked BESTIA77c709.2$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546.091,47651.8%765 W · 711 L-4.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked BESTIA43c702.73$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.273,88836.6%1,423 W · 2,465 L-197.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xffca…0b64backed Yawara Esports33c699.99$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$468.9952150.3%262 W · 259 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x992b…5053backed Yawara Esports22c499.99$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.994660.9%28 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed BESTIA58c491.69$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.872,30945.1%1,041 W · 1,268 L-62.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1407…e56cbacked BESTIA21c476.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002532%8 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-36.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbb4…0060backed Yawara Esports22c454.54$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.5417150.9%87 W · 84 L+12.8wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+13.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc057…0c9abacked Yawara Esports78c452.87$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.877830.8%24 W · 54 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x981d…711dbacked Yawara Esports41c440$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.28616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-59.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed BESTIA60c437.57$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.332,49141.1%1,023 W · 1,468 L-114.2wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed Yawara Esports49c408.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.161,31444.3%582 W · 732 L+47.4wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Yawara Esports49c404.91$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.987,89250.5%3,983 W · 3,909 L+182.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4301…ac39backed Yawara Esports64c389.44$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.44850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed BESTIA76c386.95$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.5780542.2%340 W · 465 L-16.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Yawara Esports54c375$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.692,59947.8%1,242 W · 1,357 L-30.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc34…0953backed Yawara Esports16c314.11$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.78047.5%38 W · 42 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+13.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x97f9…0aebbacked BESTIA78c306$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.683557.1%20 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c3f…e6a2backed Yawara Esports21c304.06$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.26747.8%32 W · 35 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa8b6…f6ffbacked Yawara Esports45c300$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+50%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0844…bf81backed BESTIA64c298.1$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.7435148.1%169 W · 182 L-13.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d21…92e5backed BESTIA78c297.65$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.1713545.2%61 W · 74 L-0.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb71e…641abacked Yawara Esports30c296.41$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.6610438.5%40 W · 64 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-25%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x72e7…2b72backed Yawara Esports67c293.36$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.962748.1%13 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-14.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked BESTIA60c292.01$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.22,11942.9%909 W · 1,210 L-66.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed BESTIA77c279.53$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.241,99853.7%1,073 W · 925 L+5.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid+1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe026…0404backed Yawara Esports23c269.16$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.2544552.4%233 W · 212 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked BESTIA67c262.5$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.531,63043.2%704 W · 926 L-32.9wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed BESTIA7c248.3$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.382,60830.9%807 W · 1,801 L-103.7wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1273…8eddbacked Yawara Esports24c247.02$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18820757.5%119 W · 88 L+11.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed BESTIA53c245.66$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12987330.9%270 W · 603 L-62.0wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-35.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0ac5…f963backed Yawara Esports54c227.79$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.0451055.9%285 W · 225 L+19.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7129…4517backed Yawara Esports23c220$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.41,06937.8%404 W · 665 L+35.1wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb21b…88f9backed BESTIA77c211.82$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.146354%250 W · 213 L+12.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yawara Esports78c200$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4474633.4%249 W · 497 L-48.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-30.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe8e0…7eecbacked BESTIA64c189.39$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.451,83041.6%762 W · 1,068 L-68.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-21.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcece…ffeebacked Yawara Esports22c188$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.6411844.1%52 W · 66 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed BESTIA50c183.99$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.775,26231.3%1,647 W · 3,615 L-381.6wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xad43…1a69backed BESTIA28c182.87$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.7130%0 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7498…8b4dbacked Yawara Esports55c182.69$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.692055%11 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Yawara Esports22c181.5$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.5710647.2%50 W · 56 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5855…bf51backed BESTIA50c180$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9307…9da3backed Yawara Esports55c178.98$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.341,00869.3%699 W · 309 L+152.8wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+18.3%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x09da…50bcbacked Yawara Esports23c173.84$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.7441555.4%230 W · 185 L+12.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Yawara Esports42c172.08$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.812,61051.7%1,349 W · 1,261 L+16.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked BESTIA74c166.54$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.9366446.4%308 W · 356 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x059d…caf8backed BESTIA78c166.34$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.7511348.7%55 W · 58 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ab3…3044backed Yawara Esports49c165.08$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.531,06242.2%448 W · 614 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b55…cbc6backed Yawara Esports56c159.66$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.115745.6%26 W · 31 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-13.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed BESTIA77c158.53$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.071,60646.8%752 W · 854 L-27.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed BESTIA77c157.58$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.6948251.7%249 W · 233 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf824…ebe3backed BESTIA39c157.24$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611921.1%4 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.11per pick32cpaid-42.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7b28…ff4fbacked Yawara Esports49c157$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.361,31851.7%682 W · 636 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed BESTIA49c155.34$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.668059.3%403 W · 277 L+64.6wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+13.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked BESTIA51c153.04$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.743,16545.7%1,446 W · 1,719 L-74.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x76ed…7817backed Yawara Esports23c152.17$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.1725635.5%91 W · 165 L-6.8wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a55…a82abacked Yawara Esports23c152.17$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.1711146.8%52 W · 59 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked BESTIA39c148.12$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.232,45434.4%845 W · 1,609 L-189.3wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-37.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked BESTIA39c142.11$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.142,77037.4%1,036 W · 1,734 L-139.7wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf095…58c6backed BESTIA80c130.27$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.1610356.3%58 W · 45 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a15…0350backed Yawara Esports77c129.87$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.873265.6%21 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c6d…ab76backed BESTIA77c127$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.7932949.2%162 W · 167 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb373…d97cbacked Yawara Esports49c126.87$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.3758345.3%264 W · 319 L-16.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ed1…fd2abacked Yawara Esports23c120$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.439338.2%150 W · 243 L-13.0wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbf7…c485backed Yawara Esports24c118.12$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.123253.1%17 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7f4…9626backed BESTIA46c116.73$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.237451.4%38 W · 36 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cfe…e4debacked BESTIA37c114$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.654637%17 W · 29 L+4.1wins+0.09per pick28cpaid-0.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Yawara Esports61c111.05$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.444,04050.9%2,057 W · 1,983 L+71.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed BESTIA78c106.32$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.7437848.1%182 W · 196 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Yawara Esports58c105.7$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.773,21751.3%1,649 W · 1,568 L+89.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ad4…9484backed Yawara Esports44c105$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.8250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid+13.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bd2…0985backed Yawara Esports49c104.9$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.55151%26 W · 25 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2748…d345backed BESTIA78c102.56$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80825%2 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-46.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.