Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7f7163564acf8b0e85f14c91e958bfed99c682e499353b18d83aef7c3b69c59
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $734,693
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $734,693 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 453 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x849c…4009backed No | 13c | 57,578$7,445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,444.67 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 72c | 21,846$15,665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,181.23 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 37c | 18,219$6,758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,461.24 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7e…1cc7backed No | 58c | 15,041$8,719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,719.26 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc9c…4bfebacked No | 0c | 12,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed No | 12c | 9,764$1,144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,144.36 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…d6fdbacked Yes | 53c | 7,805$4,117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,687.66 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 49c | 7,622$3,755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,866.79 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 61c | 6,696$4,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,643.43 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 58c | 6,279$3,651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,628.48 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6370…50a4backed Yes | 64c | 6,269$3,995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,274.64 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a86…71b3backed No | 0c | 6,090$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…1ef4backed No | 1c | 5,162$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.62 | 78 | 20.5%16 W · 62 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 6c | 5,119$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.09 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a79…e2afbacked No | 4c | 5,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed No | 0c | 4,708$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 28c | 4,702$1,313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,389.65 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3256…830cbacked No | 3c | 4,701$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 782 | 8.7%68 W · 714 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34a6…558bbacked No | 68c | 4,585$3,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,117.97 | 181 | 23.8%43 W · 138 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes | 39c | 4,385$1,692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,693.13 | 250 | 23.2%58 W · 192 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x274c…4824backed Yes | 34c | 4,214$1,437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,776.71 | 84 | 25%21 W · 63 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x760e…119ebacked Yes | 57c | 4,061$2,331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,730.68 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa583…efa0backed No | 78c | 3,982$3,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,093.92 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed No | 3c | 3,653$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.6 | 202 | 26.7%54 W · 148 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5725…7571backed No | 45c | 3,590$1,628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,628.42 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 32c | 3,563$1,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,424.04 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 32c | 3,303$1,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,235.92 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 39c | 3,225$1,252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,972.47 | 285 | 26.7%76 W · 209 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33d4…c167backed No | 53c | 3,062$1,625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,624.62 | 177 | 23.2%41 W · 136 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3f…a942backed No | 72c | 3,005$2,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,164.63 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 27c | 2,736$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,992.56 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…d100backed Yes | 78c | 2,670$2,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.97 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…cba8backed Yes | 50c | 2,541$1,268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,273.03 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 3c | 2,502$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.81 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 61c | 2,493$1,526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,526.4 | 546 | 75.1%410 W · 136 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde03…e629backed Yes | 67c | 2,458$1,637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$821.2 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb831…892bbacked Yes | 42c | 2,408$1,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,388.58 | 179 | 17.9%32 W · 147 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 35c | 2,395$844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,551.45 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 36c | 2,324$847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,477.07 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf640…bc3ebacked Yes | 39c | 2,216$861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,355.41 | 105 | 23.8%25 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…f80dbacked No | 9c | 2,059$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.77 | 186 | 31.7%59 W · 127 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 59c | 2,001$1,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,176.48 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1d…b3b0backed Yes | 40c | 1,844$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,108.01 | 86 | 22.1%19 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dab…e581backed Yes | 23c | 1,800$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,384.38 | 100 | 36%36 W · 64 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x252f…bfc1backed Yes | 25c | 1,788$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,349.54 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa657…00bfbacked No | 2c | 1,765$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d7…2305backed Yes | 34c | 1,658$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,089.23 | 184 | 24.5%45 W · 139 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c9…4c60backed No | 80c | 1,624$1,297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,297.02 | 87 | 42.5%37 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 59c | 1,577$928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$928.16 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes | 60c | 1,533$924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.96 | 388 | 28.6%111 W · 277 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x201a…66a8backed Yes | 33c | 1,490$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999 | 201 | 29.4%59 W · 142 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x478e…a576backed Yes | 36c | 1,476$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$939.83 | 96 | 16.7%16 W · 80 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4355…c5d4backed No | 1c | 1,448$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc78b…2ca5backed Yes | 57c | 1,378$783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.22 | 101 | 25.7%26 W · 75 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 22c | 1,348$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,056.9 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1287…85adbacked No | 21c | 1,250$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.49 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…4967backed No | 67c | 1,239$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$834.93 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3eb…376cbacked Yes | 61c | 1,210$732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.86 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4af4…f9e0backed Yes | 58c | 1,203$698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.2 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes | 26c | 1,161$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$864.44 | 509 | 13.8%70 W · 439 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes | 53c | 1,146$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.61 | 601 | 27.3%164 W · 437 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 60c | 1,139$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.07 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5759…2d3fbacked Yes | 41c | 1,116$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658.19 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f6f…ece6backed Yes | 68c | 1,100$749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 41c | 1,096$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.96 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed No | 14c | 1,050$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98b4…5d76backed Yes | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.78 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf452…8ff9backed Yes | 63c | 1,000$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.6 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f23…90dbbacked No | 3c | 999.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 52c | 977.31$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.72 | 195 | 50.3%98 W · 97 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes | 18c | 950.4$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.33 | 226 | 10.6%24 W · 202 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 24c | 935.74$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.27 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 62c | 925.99$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.18 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf1…6595backed Yes | 71c | 913.81$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.85 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +4.4wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 21c | 899.92$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$713.35 | 130 | 14.6%19 W · 111 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02b6…8f5fbacked Yes | 59c | 886.98$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.83 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 40c | 852.39$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.28 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…a66ebacked Yes | 77c | 845.98$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.81 | 94 | 13.8%13 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea4…cc1fbacked Yes | 39c | 832.6$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf58…c25bbacked Yes | 37c | 820$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.6 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c4…8129backed No | 45c | 818.55$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.66 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | -16.1wins | -0.17per pick | 41cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes | 54c | 812.86$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.86 | 179 | 19%34 W · 145 L | -10.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86e1…62c8backed Yes | 62c | 799.98$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.99 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5545…3059backed No | 75c | 799.58$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e83…30dabacked Yes | 50c | 793.84$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.89 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes | 57c | 774.7$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.11 | 332 | 31%103 W · 229 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4e…926dbacked No | 61c | 740.41$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…5fdcbacked Yes | 15c | 699.99$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.99 | 212 | 33%70 W · 142 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4449…e977backed Yes | 38c | 692.93$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.93 | 590 | 9.2%54 W · 536 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 19c | 679.98$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.68 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 61c | 673.44$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.24 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 15c | 664.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.37 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 38c | 650.47$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.58 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x713b…f43cbacked Yes | 62c | 650$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247 | 105 | 36.2%38 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37ef…93eebacked Yes | 41c | 647.54$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.39 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 61c | 645$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.13 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | -33.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x38b3…1e06backed Yes | 39c | 642$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.62 | 212 | 15.1%32 W · 180 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ff…9708backed Yes | 77c | 631.5$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.35 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 38c | 631.28$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.14 | 439 | 33%145 W · 294 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf01e…51cbbacked Yes | 23c | 621.94$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.65 | 246 | 17.5%43 W · 203 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.