Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb95d44ea864727162792bdd4851f96b60fe2bee68c8df08dfb35b32112d580d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $361,799
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $361,799 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 202 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 9c | 56,032$5,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,121.7 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 15c | 29,437$4,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,271.87 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45df…5b27backed Yes | 1c | 20,732$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.08 | 93 | 2.2%2 W · 91 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…4d4abacked Yes | 2c | 14,396$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 6c | 14,124$821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820.52 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x907d…20c4backed Yes | 0c | 10,335$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 71 | 0%0 W · 71 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7e…1cc7backed Yes | 10c | 10,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 15c | 8,544$1,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,291.53 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3f…a942backed Yes | 11c | 7,324$818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817.8 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…a743backed Yes | 4c | 6,408$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.91 | 248 | 15.3%38 W · 210 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x274c…4824backed No | 75c | 5,791$4,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,441.49 | 84 | 25%21 W · 63 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 16c | 4,428$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.79 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f2…60fabacked Yes | 9c | 4,416$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.94 | 80 | 8.8%7 W · 73 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0228…a700backed Yes | 23c | 4,353$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 14c | 4,111$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.57 | 130 | 14.6%19 W · 111 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x478e…a576backed Yes | 11c | 4,020$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.33 | 96 | 16.7%16 W · 80 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33d4…c167backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 177 | 23.2%41 W · 136 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes | 2c | 3,919$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.75 | 332 | 31%103 W · 229 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 1c | 3,845$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 20c | 3,512$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.73 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe008…f7d3backed Yes | 1c | 3,200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 256 | 17.2%44 W · 212 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefc0…20e5backed No | 72c | 3,179$2,298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$880.58 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 9c | 2,857$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.74 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 16c | 2,843$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.33 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…4967backed Yes | 12c | 2,812$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.91 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 6c | 2,700$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.93 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 9c | 2,581$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.1 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes | 16c | 2,574$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.22 | 262 | 11.1%29 W · 233 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 6c | 2,562$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.23 | 89 | 15.7%14 W · 75 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e4…d1f7backed Yes | 9c | 2,286$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.97 | 267 | 22.8%61 W · 206 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes | 2c | 2,279$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 327 | 16.8%55 W · 272 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5539…5cbebacked Yes | 2c | 2,200$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.91 | 137 | 13.1%18 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 23c | 2,073$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.41 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 73c | 2,004$1,463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.23 | 546 | 75.1%410 W · 136 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7279…4612backed Yes | 19c | 1,876$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.58 | 273 | 16.8%46 W · 227 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36fd…8982backed Yes | 33c | 1,666$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…d6fdbacked Yes | 17c | 1,640$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.14 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4aa…a78bbacked Yes | 7c | 1,637$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 18c | 1,620$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.27 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…7255backed Yes | 36c | 1,601$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.37 | 264 | 11.4%30 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67ef…990abacked Yes | 4c | 1,562$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.08 | 732 | 15.2%111 W · 621 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9057…c12cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,540$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.09 | 124 | 24.2%30 W · 94 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 15cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 1,526$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeff9…05fdbacked No | 75c | 1,500$1,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.78 | 164 | 27.4%45 W · 119 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 17c | 1,467$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.9 | 285 | 26.7%76 W · 209 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 12c | 1,428$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.09 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes | 27c | 1,112$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 210 | 34.8%73 W · 137 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 1,100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 272 | 7%19 W · 253 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92ad…c78fbacked Yes | 23c | 1,077$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.96 | 79 | 7.6%6 W · 73 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes | 25c | 1,039$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.02 | 250 | 23.2%58 W · 192 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed Yes | 1c | 1,013$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 233 | 21%49 W · 184 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12f8…bfa5backed Yes | 35c | 1,007$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 4c | 1,002$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.15 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9558…68c3backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb30a…250ebacked Yes | 5c | 999.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 58 | 15.5%9 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +98.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c01…0436backed Yes | 7c | 931.69$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.73 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8c…c39abacked Yes | 14c | 894.73$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.92 | 182 | 18.7%34 W · 148 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe13f…c8b4backed Yes | 3c | 852.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 158 | 19%30 W · 128 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc736…e547backed Yes | 26c | 755.41$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a03…86dcbacked Yes | 8c | 750$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.33 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 72c | 737.98$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.59 | 261 | 67%175 W · 86 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 29c | 709.51$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.76 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeab1…8121backed Yes | 11c | 708.6$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.24 | 488 | 19.3%94 W · 394 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…5fdcbacked Yes | 10c | 700$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 212 | 33%70 W · 142 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…6e3bbacked No | 68c | 700$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 509 | 13.8%70 W · 439 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 692.89$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.46 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37ef…93eebacked Yes | 30c | 662.09$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…6bd7backed Yes | 7c | 615.38$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.76 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 16c | 610.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.12 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc824…2ce2backed Yes | 8c | 586.25$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dab…e581backed No | 77c | 569.45$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.32 | 100 | 36%36 W · 64 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…4bdebacked Yes | 13c | 543.25$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.73 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c96…1959backed Yes | 8c | 533.81$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.11 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02b6…8f5fbacked Yes | 9c | 525.93$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.46 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked Yes | 7c | 498.71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 562 | 8.9%50 W · 512 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e28…cf34backed Yes | 11c | 473.8$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.36 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd9…7a92backed No | 72c | 458.33$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.33 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 43cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae2f…3e2abacked Yes | 27c | 449.41$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.34 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…0e2bbacked Yes | 32c | 435$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 27cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…4805backed No | 68c | 435$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +107.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14d0…8df8backed Yes | 4c | 425.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae0d…7df9backed Yes | 9c | 424.18$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.38 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes | 12c | 424.02$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.47 | 280 | 25.4%71 W · 209 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf01e…51cbbacked Yes | 17c | 420.85$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.55 | 246 | 17.5%43 W · 203 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked No | 75c | 402.27$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.27 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b36…9b41backed Yes | 23c | 390$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.98 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…cba8backed Yes | 27c | 370$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9dc…6900backed Yes | 27c | 364.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e83…30dabacked Yes | 28c | 358$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.67 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f2…25adbacked Yes | 12c | 354.11$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa455…3ef0backed Yes | 28c | 350$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92f4…678fbacked Yes | 31c | 343.5$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.44 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fcd…c5debacked Yes | 28c | 342.1$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.58 | 63 | 25.4%16 W · 47 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf709…7236backed Yes | 30c | 329.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb68b…9b23backed Yes | 11c | 320.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 8c | 320$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f07…3f68backed Yes | 33c | 304.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 117 | 21.4%25 W · 92 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbcc…2e56backed Yes | 31c | 301.61$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 114 | 17.5%20 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad2e…6604backed Yes | 11c | 300.6$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.41 | 79 | 30.4%24 W · 55 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.