TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$361,799

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $361,799 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 202 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes9c56,032$5,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,121.71,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes15c29,437$4,272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,271.8763414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45df…5b27backed Yes1c20,732$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.08932.2%2 W · 91 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick1cpaid-67.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb0c…4d4abacked Yes2c14,396$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes6c14,124$821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$820.521,0678.3%89 W · 978 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x907d…20c4backed Yes0c10,335$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.01710%0 W · 71 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a7e…1cc7backed Yes10c10,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0005635.7%20 W · 36 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes15c8,544$1,292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,291.5331621.8%69 W · 247 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3f…a942backed Yes11c7,324$818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$817.811556.5%65 W · 50 L+0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedc8…a743backed Yes4c6,408$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.9124815.3%38 W · 210 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x274c…4824backed No75c5,791$4,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,441.498425%21 W · 63 L+0.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes16c4,428$724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$723.7956429.8%168 W · 396 L+2.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-39.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6f2…60fabacked Yes9c4,416$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.94808.8%7 W · 73 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-41%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0228…a700backed Yes23c4,353$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002611.5%3 W · 23 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-23.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes14c4,111$577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$576.5713014.6%19 W · 111 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-50.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x478e…a576backed Yes11c4,020$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.339616.7%16 W · 80 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33d4…c167backed Yes1c4,000$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5217723.2%41 W · 136 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+23.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes2c3,919$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.7533231%103 W · 229 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes1c3,845$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404165.3%22 W · 394 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+158.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes20c3,512$713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$712.732,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe008…f7d3backed Yes1c3,200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2225617.2%44 W · 212 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-22.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefc0…20e5backed No72c3,179$2,298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$880.581643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes9c2,857$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.7488018.6%164 W · 716 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes16c2,843$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.3378111.3%88 W · 693 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-44.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01a4…4967backed Yes12c2,812$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.9116056.9%91 W · 69 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x878a…a429backed Yes6c2,700$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.9331722.4%71 W · 246 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes9c2,581$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.188017.3%152 W · 728 L+2.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes16c2,574$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.2226211.1%29 W · 233 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-47.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Yes6c2,562$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.238915.7%14 W · 75 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick10cpaid-24.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc7e4…d1f7backed Yes9c2,286$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.9726722.8%61 W · 206 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes2c2,279$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.2832716.8%55 W · 272 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5539…5cbebacked Yes2c2,200$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.9113713.1%18 W · 119 L+6.6wins+0.05per pick8cpaid+68.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes23c2,073$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.411,03811.1%115 W · 923 L+4.7wins0.00per pick11cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No73c2,004$1,463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.2354675.1%410 W · 136 L+34.8wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7279…4612backed Yes19c1,876$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.5827316.8%46 W · 227 L+0.6wins0.00per pick17cpaid-38.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36fd…8982backed Yes33c1,666$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5501442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3488…d6fdbacked Yes17c1,640$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.1420735.3%73 W · 134 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4aa…a78bbacked Yes7c1,637$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.08250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes18c1,620$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.2763821.5%137 W · 501 L+1.7wins0.00per pick21cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7146…7255backed Yes36c1,601$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$578.3726411.4%30 W · 234 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-38.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes4c1,562$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.0873215.2%111 W · 621 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9057…c12cbacked Yes7c1,540$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.0912424.2%30 W · 94 L+11.3wins+0.09per pick15cpaid+100.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes1c1,526$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.251,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeff9…05fdbacked No75c1,500$1,128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.7816427.4%45 W · 119 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-13.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes17c1,467$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.928526.7%76 W · 209 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes12c1,428$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.091,04513.6%142 W · 903 L+37.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes27c1,112$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30021034.8%73 W · 137 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes2c1,100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182727%19 W · 253 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+83.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x92ad…c78fbacked Yes23c1,077$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.96797.6%6 W · 73 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-40.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes25c1,039$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.0225023.2%58 W · 192 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37b2…8681backed Yes1c1,013$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.423321%49 W · 184 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12f8…bfa5backed Yes35c1,007$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3559626%25 W · 71 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-7.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes4c1,002$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.1576821.7%167 W · 601 L-2.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9558…68c3backed Yes6c1,000$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59229.1%2 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick19cpaid-72.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb30a…250ebacked Yes5c999.99$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515815.5%9 W · 49 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+98.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c01…0436backed Yes7c931.69$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.73825%2 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick17cpaid+15.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e8c…c39abacked Yes14c894.73$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.9218218.7%34 W · 148 L+0.4wins0.00per pick18cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe13f…c8b4backed Yes3c852.32$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2315819%30 W · 128 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick17cpaid+11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc736…e547backed Yes26c755.41$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a03…86dcbacked Yes8c750$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.334365.1%28 W · 15 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No72c737.98$529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.5926167%175 W · 86 L+0.3wins0.00per pick67cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes29c709.51$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.7666222.2%147 W · 515 L-34.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeab1…8121backed Yes11c708.6$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.2448819.3%94 W · 394 L+0.5wins0.00per pick19cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92a0…5fdcbacked Yes10c700$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7021233%70 W · 142 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked No68c700$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22550913.8%70 W · 439 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes10c692.89$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.4699619.8%197 W · 799 L-15.9wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-43.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37ef…93eebacked Yes30c662.09$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2008332.5%27 W · 56 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9314…6bd7backed Yes7c615.38$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.7624710.9%27 W · 220 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+44.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes16c610.75$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.1250828.3%144 W · 364 L+1.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc824…2ce2backed Yes8c586.25$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.42737%10 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8dab…e581backed No77c569.45$436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.3210036%36 W · 64 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc135…4bdebacked Yes13c543.25$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.732718.5%5 W · 22 L-3.3wins-0.12per pick31cpaid-43.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2c96…1959backed Yes8c533.81$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.115228.8%15 W · 37 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick23cpaid-30.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x02b6…8f5fbacked Yes9c525.93$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4610542.9%45 W · 60 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes7c498.71$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.625628.9%50 W · 512 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick8cpaid+18.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e28…cf34backed Yes11c473.8$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.361723.5%4 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fd9…7a92backed No72c458.33$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.33771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.29per pick43cpaid+95.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xae2f…3e2abacked Yes27c449.41$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.341926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-24.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d17…0e2bbacked Yes32c435$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick27cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8745…4805backed No68c435$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.2366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick34cpaid+107.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x14d0…8df8backed Yes4c425.41$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174926.5%13 W · 36 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-22.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xae0d…7df9backed Yes9c424.18$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.381414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-46.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes12c424.02$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4728025.4%71 W · 209 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf01e…51cbbacked Yes17c420.85$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.5524617.5%43 W · 203 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked No75c402.27$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.2734833.3%116 W · 232 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b36…9b41backed Yes23c390$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.981346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8405…cba8backed Yes27c370$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005332.1%17 W · 36 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-40.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe9dc…6900backed Yes27c364.75$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004017.5%7 W · 33 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-29%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7e83…30dabacked Yes28c358$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.679423.4%22 W · 72 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8f2…25adbacked Yes12c354.11$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.21030%3 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa455…3ef0backed Yes28c350$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$982626.9%7 W · 19 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick23cpaid+83.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92f4…678fbacked Yes31c343.5$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.44911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fcd…c5debacked Yes28c342.1$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.586325.4%16 W · 47 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cca…c831backed Yes30c333.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10046521.3%99 W · 366 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf709…7236backed Yes30c329.69$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-61.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb68b…9b23backed Yes11c320.58$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.820%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes8c320$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.23514.3%5 W · 30 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-76.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f07…3f68backed Yes33c304.85$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011721.4%25 W · 92 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick23cpaid+16.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbcc…2e56backed Yes31c301.61$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9511417.5%20 W · 94 L-6.2wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xad2e…6604backed Yes11c300.6$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.417930.4%24 W · 55 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.