Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b1ea5886d1996e79520b2d7200d51fb6d2a6b425aa3a9345747e0abe4c0d41c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $619,687
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $619,687 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 320 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 5c | 139,930$7,591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,590.53 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 1c | 50,658$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.78 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…ce58backed Yes | 1c | 33,973$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.42 | 107 | 27.1%29 W · 78 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca6e…46f2backed Yes | 1c | 30,000$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 481 | 6.7%32 W · 449 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…3c72backed Yes | 2c | 16,751$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.88 | 202 | 26.7%54 W · 148 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa657…00bfbacked Yes | 0c | 15,152$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.64 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45df…5b27backed Yes | 1c | 11,643$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.9 | 93 | 2.2%2 W · 91 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92bb…1afbbacked Yes | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 38 | 0%0 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…a743backed Yes | 13c | 9,728$1,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,239.44 | 248 | 15.3%38 W · 210 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 38c | 8,811$3,361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,361.22 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 10c | 7,360$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.08 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf58…c25bbacked Yes | 4c | 7,095$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.97 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 28c | 6,817$1,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,939.78 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 29c | 6,279$1,844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,844.2 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x779a…b689backed No | 62c | 6,003$3,748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,255.39 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 11c | 5,703$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.52 | 130 | 14.6%19 W · 111 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…d6fdbacked Yes | 15c | 5,686$829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$829.12 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4355…c5d4backed Yes | 3c | 5,600$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.49 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 9c | 4,254$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.88 | 364 | 11%40 W · 324 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…a66ebacked Yes | 11c | 4,231$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.91 | 94 | 13.8%13 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 15c | 4,075$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.95 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb831…892bbacked Yes | 23c | 3,993$936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$936.31 | 179 | 17.9%32 W · 147 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 16c | 3,815$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.74 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…7cc3backed Yes | 10c | 3,756$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.91 | 115 | 12.2%14 W · 101 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 72c | 3,633$2,625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,008.8 | 108 | 57.4%62 W · 46 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes | 18c | 3,391$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.97 | 499 | 19%95 W · 404 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 12c | 3,390$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.74 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5359…6b35backed No | 77c | 3,185$2,456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.65 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 3c | 2,993$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.58 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0888…e6e3backed Yes | 17c | 2,988$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.49 | 154 | 13%20 W · 134 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 11c | 2,833$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 5c | 2,800$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 23c | 2,671$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.31 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7279…4612backed Yes | 16c | 2,657$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.25 | 273 | 16.8%46 W · 227 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 10c | 2,583$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.41 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 12c | 2,574$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.16 | 121 | 14%17 W · 104 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 12c | 2,558$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.81 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…d100backed Yes | 48c | 2,555$1,226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,226.24 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 5c | 2,537$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.33 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x201a…66a8backed Yes | 16c | 2,486$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.45 | 201 | 29.4%59 W · 142 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 19c | 2,404$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 32c | 2,350$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$741.21 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 2c | 2,331$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.91 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 7c | 2,247$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.61 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1d…b3b0backed Yes | 22c | 2,215$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.85 | 86 | 22.1%19 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dab…e581backed Yes | 8c | 2,168$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.93 | 100 | 36%36 W · 64 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 5c | 2,096$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.83 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…7255backed Yes | 32c | 2,080$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.35 | 264 | 11.4%30 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9057…c12cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,970$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.43 | 124 | 24.2%30 W · 94 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 15cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x92f4…678fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,962$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.81 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes | 9c | 1,896$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.42 | 262 | 11.1%29 W · 233 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 66c | 1,841$1,216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.03 | 546 | 75.1%410 W · 136 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 9c | 1,785$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.13 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 18c | 1,708$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.07 | 285 | 26.7%76 W · 209 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d7…2305backed Yes | 45c | 1,705$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$767.63 | 184 | 24.5%45 W · 139 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,676$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.32 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x252f…bfc1backed Yes | 13c | 1,644$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.48 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 6c | 1,622$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.04 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 20c | 1,609$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.49 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…1ab3backed Yes | 11c | 1,543$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.73 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b24…f36abacked Yes | 12c | 1,500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 192 | 29.2%56 W · 136 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38b3…1e06backed Yes | 16c | 1,440$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 212 | 15.1%32 W · 180 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 14c | 1,400$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.27 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac28…0d06backed Yes | 5c | 1,400$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.6 | 93 | 7.5%7 W · 86 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf452…8ff9backed Yes | 23c | 1,299$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.23 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12f8…bfa5backed Yes | 12c | 1,217$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.53 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…d67dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,200$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 212 | 20.3%43 W · 169 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +610.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d4…c1b8backed Yes | 33c | 1,166$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.4 | 177 | 28.2%50 W · 127 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4449…e977backed Yes | 23c | 1,161$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266 | 590 | 9.2%54 W · 536 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae0d…7df9backed Yes | 10c | 1,150$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.19 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c4…953cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,118$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc78b…2ca5backed Yes | 51c | 1,105$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.99 | 101 | 25.7%26 W · 75 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 71c | 1,072$766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.77 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf640…bc3ebacked Yes | 39c | 1,034$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.16 | 105 | 23.8%25 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x402c…0f6dbacked No | 80c | 1,020$814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.58 | 280 | 25.4%71 W · 209 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 7c | 1,019$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.37 | 292 | 25%73 W · 219 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98b4…5d76backed Yes | 36c | 1,000$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.09 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes | 8c | 999.96$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 226 | 10.6%24 W · 202 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a0…2c5ebacked Yes | 28c | 990.26$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.27 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes | 9c | 974.97$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.18 | 250 | 23.2%58 W · 192 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 15c | 879.46$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.85 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes | 24c | 863.82$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x063d…35c7backed Yes | 2c | 844.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 65 | 23.1%15 W · 50 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 34c | 824.63$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.4 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 26c | 815.15$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.63 | 439 | 33%145 W · 294 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc705…e103backed Yes | 17c | 792.76$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.23 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bfe…b127backed Yes | 6c | 782.19$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.67 | 99 | 25.3%25 W · 74 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0e…fb07backed Yes | 15c | 772.68$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.31 | 129 | 20.9%27 W · 102 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x308a…eed3backed Yes | 4c | 767.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x478e…a576backed Yes | 41c | 754.04$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.93 | 96 | 16.7%16 W · 80 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 4c | 749.94$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 503 | 19.5%98 W · 405 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ff…9708backed Yes | 20c | 741$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.93 | 62 | 24.2%15 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked Yes | 10c | 738.35$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.17 | 562 | 8.9%50 W · 512 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf01e…51cbbacked Yes | 11c | 727.25$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 246 | 17.5%43 W · 203 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa80…c7e0backed Yes | 28c | 685.43$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.99 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeba1…44dfbacked Yes | 44c | 680.77$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3454…333bbacked Yes | 25c | 674.59$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.53 | 72 | 16.7%12 W · 60 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 33c | 660.02$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.9 | 78 | 33.3%26 W · 52 L | -8.8wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaf4f…eb7ebacked Yes | 6c | 659.01$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.39 | 218 | 27.1%59 W · 159 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.