TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$308,284

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $308,284 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 323 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes17c32,081$5,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,324.8863414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes19c23,708$4,524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,523.731,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb831…892bbacked Yes0c9,534$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.617917.9%32 W · 147 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-40%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b42…229ebacked Yes3c7,860$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.4210322.3%23 W · 80 L+8.6wins+0.08per pick14cpaid+59.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xedc8…a743backed Yes8c7,395$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.7224815.3%38 W · 210 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5120…a52dbacked Yes1c5,094$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac28…0d06backed Yes3c5,082$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.32937.5%7 W · 86 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-51%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes45c4,432$1,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,974.9831621.8%69 W · 247 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes11c4,426$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.881,0678.3%89 W · 978 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes48c3,354$1,595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,595.291,03811.1%115 W · 923 L+4.7wins0.00per pick11cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes2c3,230$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504165.3%22 W · 394 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+158.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x554a…a8f7backed Yes50c2,973$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick47cpaid-58.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf452…8ff9backed Yes6c2,769$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.5715128.5%43 W · 108 L+0.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid+21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacbc…7cc3backed No52c2,637$1,371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,265.6111512.2%14 W · 101 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-57.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37ef…93eebacked Yes52c2,628$1,377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,377.498332.5%27 W · 56 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x478e…a576backed Yes20c2,532$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.759616.7%16 W · 80 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes14c2,528$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.988018.6%164 W · 716 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45df…5b27backed Yes1c2,510$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.65932.2%2 W · 91 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick1cpaid-67.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes16c2,295$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.0688017.3%152 W · 728 L+2.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9be9…7017backed Yes4c2,160$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.32119%4 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes24c2,051$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.713014.6%19 W · 111 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-50.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e8c…c39abacked Yes4c1,948$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.1218218.7%34 W · 148 L+0.4wins0.00per pick18cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01a4…4967backed No53c1,775$932 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$842.4516056.9%91 W · 69 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b35…12b3backed Yes1c1,758$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.923735.4%84 W · 153 L-0.7wins0.00per pick36cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No60c1,747$1,041 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$706.5154675.1%410 W · 136 L+34.8wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes19c1,670$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.8376821.7%167 W · 601 L-2.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b67…60aabacked Yes60c1,667$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00014137.6%53 W · 88 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6370…50a4backed Yes61c1,411$862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$861.912729.6%8 W · 19 L-4.8wins-0.18per pick47cpaid-40.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No56c1,342$753 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$588.3510857.4%62 W · 46 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-10.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf640…bc3ebacked Yes38c1,312$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010523.8%25 W · 80 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked No44c1,287$564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$723.1862539.5%247 W · 378 L+48.1wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+19.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf4f5…f796backed Yes3c1,246$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.399412.8%12 W · 82 L+0.1wins0.00per pick13cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes43c1,175$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.962,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33d4…c167backed Yes11c1,175$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.2517723.2%41 W · 136 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+23.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa827…3787backed Yes1c1,163$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick36cpaid+26.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes37c1,076$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40016427.4%45 W · 119 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-13.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes11c1,054$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.622727%19 W · 253 L+6.7wins+0.02per pick5cpaid+83.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes25c1,050$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.31,04513.6%142 W · 903 L+37.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes14c1,000$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14541017.8%73 W · 337 L+0.3wins0.00per pick18cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef24…a44dbacked Yes48c1,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48017126.9%46 W · 125 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34a6…558bbacked Yes12c1,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.7818123.8%43 W · 138 L+0.3wins0.00per pick24cpaid-23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4aae…d563backed Yes39c976.66$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.116747.8%32 W · 35 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+49.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9c4a…4896backed Yes41c973.69$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.824526.7%12 W · 33 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-30.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x204b…8ca3backed Yes42c837.8$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.4218722.5%42 W · 145 L+0.2wins0.00per pick22cpaid-33.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8405…cba8backed Yes42c817.53$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.155332.1%17 W · 36 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-40.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes34c815.49$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.7828025.4%71 W · 209 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd84b…0df3backed No41c802.01$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.2611725.6%30 W · 87 L-7.3wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-14.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes42c764.93$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.446521.3%99 W · 366 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb0c…4d4abacked Yes54c741.82$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes40c740$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29625023.2%58 W · 192 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07a4…b920backed Yes53c715.61$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.551822.2%4 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-54%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes44c711.14$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.3228526.7%76 W · 209 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x92a0…5fdcbacked Yes30c699.99$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21021233%70 W · 142 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ab6…6099backed No70c693.4$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.726728.4%19 W · 48 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9314…6bd7backed Yes8c655.74$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.6224710.9%27 W · 220 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+44.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No69c653.01$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.7899619.8%197 W · 799 L-15.9wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-43.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked No52c639.73$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.6263821.5%137 W · 501 L+1.7wins0.00per pick21cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes55c610.75$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.8350828.3%144 W · 364 L+1.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes49c608$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30017919%34 W · 145 L-10.0wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-34.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed No43c606.13$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.674839.6%19 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked No55c597.86$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.0726211.1%29 W · 233 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-47.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes49c567.57$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.8760127.3%164 W · 437 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe864…ce58backed Yes38c550$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20910727.1%29 W · 78 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-49.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x274c…4824backed Yes60c508.63$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.188425%21 W · 63 L+0.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x387c…2423backed Yes53c500.48$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.0617628.4%50 W · 126 L+0.5wins0.00per pick28cpaid-14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked No39c500$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.485628.9%50 W · 512 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick8cpaid+18.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1a8…6abdbacked Yes44c500$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22012136.4%44 W · 77 L+0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid+21.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6503…09f6backed Yes28c499.99$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1408923.6%21 W · 68 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes56c493.12$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27721034.8%73 W · 137 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf61f…c8b2backed Yes40c487.8$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.7630%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e28…cf34backed Yes48c473.8$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.711723.5%4 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes5c473.44$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.759225.3%150 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7279…4612backed No51c436.56$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.8327316.8%46 W · 227 L+0.6wins0.00per pick17cpaid-38.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0170…a17cbacked Yes57c431.5$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.96666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick58cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked No70c431.09$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.0934833.3%116 W · 232 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeab1…8121backed Yes22c430$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.548819.3%94 W · 394 L+0.5wins0.00per pick19cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d73…9d35backed Yes38c399.99$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15019317.6%34 W · 159 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-27.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3488…d6fdbacked No60c382.54$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.5220735.3%73 W · 134 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f07…3f68backed Yes41c367.32$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15011721.4%25 W · 92 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick23cpaid+16.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae0d…7df9backed Yes38c365.21$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.21414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-46.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No60c364.05$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.4226167%175 W · 86 L+0.3wins0.00per pick67cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b54…db07backed Yes57c352.34$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No53c348.24$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.6931565.1%205 W · 110 L-1.3wins0.00per pick65cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No58c342.91$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.9651845.9%238 W · 280 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7e4…d1f7backed Yes38c340.07$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.3826722.8%61 W · 206 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bf1…6595backed No67c339.66$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.833545.7%16 W · 19 L+4.4wins+0.13per pick33cpaid+81.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb68b…9b23backed Yes61c320.68$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.820%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf141…67b0backed Yes7c305$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.95714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-56.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c2e…5e69backed Yes52c301.74$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.3643126.2%113 W · 318 L+2.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-2.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x201a…66a8backed Yes36c300$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10820129.4%59 W · 142 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbcc…2e56backed Yes44c300$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13211417.5%20 W · 94 L-6.2wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb5a0…fb10backed Yes10c300$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2914026.4%37 W · 103 L+9.4wins+0.07per pick20cpaid+14.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8c98…6f55backed Yes53c300$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.722824.1%55 W · 173 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad2e…6604backed Yes57c300$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1717930.4%24 W · 55 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…dff7backed Yes40c300$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12013023.1%30 W · 100 L-0.5wins0.00per pick23cpaid+4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8dab…e581backed No51c285.54$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.8210036%36 W · 64 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No77c271.53$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.8919550.3%98 W · 97 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ff6…4e36backed Yes38c263.34$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011721.4%25 W · 92 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5464…9d3ebacked Yes36c260.22$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.673225%8 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b3c…ff9abacked Yes20c254.89$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.868712.6%11 W · 76 L-0.4wins0.00per pick13cpaid+6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.