Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafb4da3c9116ffc908e71e14426bf441e01bb31ed084b00a2f230f1803e752e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $234,661
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $234,661 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0228…a700backed Yes | 1c | 34,926$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.74 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 5c | 33,579$1,594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,593.86 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 2c | 16,273$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.7 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f2…60fabacked Yes | 8c | 6,147$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.9 | 80 | 8.8%7 W · 73 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 2c | 5,327$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 416 | 5.3%22 W · 394 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 2c | 5,007$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.3 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…a743backed Yes | 5c | 4,866$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.07 | 248 | 15.3%38 W · 210 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92ad…c78fbacked Yes | 5c | 4,175$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.81 | 79 | 7.6%6 W · 73 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 5c | 4,037$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.48 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 5c | 3,119$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.58 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 4c | 2,681$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.46 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes | 5c | 2,524$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.42 | 262 | 11.1%29 W · 233 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7279…4612backed Yes | 7c | 2,515$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.42 | 273 | 16.8%46 W · 227 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 5c | 2,513$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.08 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 7c | 2,243$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.66 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 5c | 1,879$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.07 | 130 | 14.6%19 W · 111 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…c64dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,856$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 2c | 1,830$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3488…d6fdbacked Yes | 5c | 1,714$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.7 | 207 | 35.3%73 W · 134 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…d594backed Yes | 6c | 1,656$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x478e…a576backed Yes | 2c | 1,620$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 96 | 16.7%16 W · 80 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12f8…bfa5backed Yes | 6c | 1,543$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.3 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes | 2c | 1,300$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 218 | 18.3%40 W · 178 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 1,118$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 272 | 7%19 W · 253 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac28…0d06backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 93 | 7.5%7 W · 86 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcf…04fcbacked Yes | 4c | 999.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes | 3c | 999.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 226 | 10.6%24 W · 202 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f2…25adbacked Yes | 7c | 905.57$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.39 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf1e…8136backed Yes | 6c | 888.43$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x409c…9ac8backed Yes | 2c | 817.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 121 | 24%29 W · 92 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb30a…250ebacked Yes | 7c | 800$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 58 | 15.5%9 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +98.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 7c | 799.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 5c | 777.57$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.67 | 285 | 26.7%76 W · 209 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 775.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5048…4b29backed Yes | 7c | 743.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.74 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0af…7ec6backed Yes | 12c | 725$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2997…0389backed Yes | 12c | 721.34$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +113.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72e2…1d2abacked Yes | 6c | 711.94$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe626…92b5backed Yes | 6c | 675.93$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 5c | 671.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.58 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 4c | 670.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 657.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc03a…7465backed Yes | 7c | 642.86$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c04…6587backed Yes | 5c | 640.4$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 470 | 32.6%153 W · 317 L | +13.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43c9…47c1backed Yes | 12c | 598$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2de4…c8e6backed Yes | 5c | 551.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 301 | 10.3%31 W · 270 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 4c | 486.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 89 | 15.7%14 W · 75 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6091…0b10backed Yes | 5c | 480$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf755…afa0backed Yes | 6c | 416.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x314d…65bfbacked Yes | 4c | 386$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 320 | 15%48 W · 272 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa771…5a8bbacked Yes | 4c | 382.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a37…65c3backed Yes | 5c | 382.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -46%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fcd…c5debacked Yes | 12c | 348.42$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.27 | 63 | 25.4%16 W · 47 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c01…0436backed Yes | 5c | 327.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…7255backed Yes | 12c | 326.07$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 264 | 11.4%30 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe380…70e2backed Yes | 4c | 296.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 61 | 8.2%5 W · 56 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf01e…51cbbacked Yes | 5c | 296.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 246 | 17.5%43 W · 203 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbce…f400backed Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 4c | 270.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 105 | 10.5%11 W · 94 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 5c | 236$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 503 | 19.5%98 W · 405 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xded9…ccc9backed Yes | 7c | 221.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 7c | 210.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 7cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb3…ae1ebacked Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b36…9b41backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aae…e990backed Yes | 6c | 195.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44a3…121fbacked Yes | 6c | 177.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9db5…701ebacked No | 78c | 13.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 86 | 79.1%68 W · 18 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.