TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x43c9…47c1

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
80
Categories scored
25
Categories below 50
13

Best Category: AI, grading 59 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category AI at 59 out of 100; worst World Politics at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$238Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$67.1
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$129Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$129.36
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$199Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$199.24
Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$960Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$320
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$266Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$592.71
Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$52.89
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.45
Will Khamenei tweet again on March 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$164Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$163.85
U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$60.48
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$236Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$235.6
Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 25% in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+185.7%+$144.95
Odds of Khamenei being out as Supreme Leader by March 31 over 20% in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$206Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+35.1%+$72.28
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$186Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$185.64
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$503Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$503.28
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$272Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+150%+$407.4
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 29, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$213Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+127.3%+$271.6
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$644Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$643.8
All 17 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT1258.3%7 W · 5 L+3.1wins+0.26per pick33cpaid+117%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
AI — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$107Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$106.64
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$487Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$338.25
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on April 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$149Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$149.12
Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+354.5%+$425.1
Gemini 3.5 released by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.08
Will Artemis II launch by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+566.7%+$436.9
Will Sergey Brin be 3rd richest person on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$556Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$555.97
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$282Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$405.33
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.20 (LOW) by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$371Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$370.76
Will "Greenland" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$106Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+212.5%+$224.4
Will "Microsoft" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+334.8%+$162.47
Will UpScrolled be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+222.6%+$140.07
All 12 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved May 20, 2026, EDT944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+5.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Frenchie die in "The Boys: Season 5"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$1,191Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$1,343.02
Will Connor Storrie attend the Oscars?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$295Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$88.09
Will "Polymarket" be said at the Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$58.41
Will Two People Exchanging Saliva win Best Live Action Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$194Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$194.12
Will Leonardo DiCaprio attend the Oscars?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$102.53
Will Amy Madigan win Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture at the 2026 SAG Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$213Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+354.5%+$754.26
Will The Perfect Neighbor win Best Producer of Documentary Film at the 37th PGA Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$37.18
Will "Sentimental Value" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$219.56
Will Spike Jonze win Best Director of Commercials at the 78th DGA Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+53.8%+$22.4
All 9 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-43.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 14, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.23per pick37cpaid+106.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Music — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 4, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick62cpaid-66.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Premier League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 24, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+54.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bayer Leverkusen advance to the round of 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$174Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+78.6%+$136.84
Will Club Brugge advance to the round of 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$143Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+29.9%+$42.78
All 2 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran strike Khurais Field by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$291Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$290.6
Will Iran strike Leviathan Field by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$395Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$124.8
All 2 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 23, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils vs. Southern Jaguarsbacked Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.72
Southern Illinois Salukis vs. Evansville Aces: O/U 142.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$152Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$151.9
All 2 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Motherwell FC win on 2026-02-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$88.5
Aberdeen FC vs. Celtic FC: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$97.92
All 2 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved May 3, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.89per pick11cpaid+809.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gimnasia y Esgrima de La Plata win on 2026-03-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+809.1%+$521.54
All 1 picks, newest first.
Poker Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Poker — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Poker, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Patrik Antonius win at Hustler Casino on February 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$373Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+194.1%+$723.36
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Jun 4, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tyler1 shave his head by June 1, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$128Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$81.9
All 1 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be greater than 3.5%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$318Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$149.76
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the announcers say "Eye poke" during Strickland vs. Hernandez?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$131Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+42.9%+$56.1
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Feb 27, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Cam Spencer: Assists Over 8.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$466Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+29.7%+$138.55
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$71.76
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Melissa Bean be the Democratic Nominee for IL-08?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$97.06
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Feb 18, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Levante UD vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$42.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Sentio FDV above $50M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$234Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$234.03
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$201Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$200.9
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO day?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$291Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$291.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
Australian A League Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Australian A League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Australian A League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Macarthur FC win on 2026-02-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$195Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$194.67
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.