AI · resolved market
Will Sergey Brin be 3rd richest person on March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa067b9ec129a00d7c019a8d07f7f82406c16723c79dba201b387317a6a874a35
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $83,262
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $82,624
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,262 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 203 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf51b…bf74backed Yes | 43c | 2,255$970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$969.65 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e15…7ff5backed No | 57c | 2,029$1,157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$872.47 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d09…42b7backed No | 69c | 1,421$977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +103%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4d…b46ebacked Yes | 51c | 1,398$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.98 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…e62fbacked Yes | 72c | 1,370$986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$986.4 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…b75ebacked No | 49c | 1,220$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.2 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +96%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe71…38d2backed Yes | 66c | 1,140$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757.9 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2b…f025backed No | 24c | 1,086$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825.36 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2e…e025backed No | 29c | 1,078$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769.89 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fd…a3e1backed Yes | 46c | 1,073$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.58 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -46%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43c9…47c1backed Yes | 53c | 1,049$556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.97 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.26per pick | 33cpaid | +117%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x47eb…8195backed No | 39c | 996$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.56 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…93f7backed Yes | 52c | 948$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.96 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22ec…4477backed No | 47c | 897$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.41 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7086…f376backed Yes | 49c | 893$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.57 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…9f9ebacked Yes | 46c | 888$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.48 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5be7…46eebacked Yes | 45c | 854$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.3 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde45…8238backed No | 39c | 834$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.74 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a8…2a44backed Yes | 42c | 817$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.14 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64c2…c527backed Yes | 42c | 794$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.48 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd08…bd74backed No | 58c | 790$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.8 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45d3…53dcbacked Yes | 64c | 759$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.76 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…90e6backed No | 36c | 759$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.76 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b45…836ebacked Yes | 59c | 752$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.18 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -4.2wins | -0.32per pick | 55cpaid | -67%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb212…0f8ebacked No | 58c | 741$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.22 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ae…bb88backed Yes | 26c | 724$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.24 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab9…2ff1backed No | 74c | 724$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.24 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac7…dc0bbacked No | 39c | 719$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.59 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.33per pick | 40cpaid | +126.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d5…1caebacked Yes | 61c | 704$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.44 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5214…95c9backed Yes | 46c | 686$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.56 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ef…095ebacked No | 40c | 684$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5aca…cad6backed Yes | 78c | 665$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.12 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…f9d4backed No | 47c | 665$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.45 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4f…3b33backed No | 50c | 664$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.4 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9941…7fd9backed Yes | 76c | 661$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.36 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.9wins | -0.44per pick | 55cpaid | -85.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2950…ffeabacked No | 47c | 659$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.27 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x964c…44acbacked No | 57c | 651$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.93 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb83e…10fcbacked Yes | 15c | 645$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.75 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x036f…31a9backed No | 54c | 634$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.64 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee9e…efb7backed Yes | 12c | 634$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.08 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c7…d291backed Yes | 53c | 621.85$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.46 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x169a…55e4backed No | 35c | 618$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.7 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +5.0wins | +0.26per pick | 47cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…eadcbacked Yes | 53c | 617$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6560…e164backed Yes | 30c | 614.93$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.5 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae4…d837backed No | 55c | 609$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.05 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e7…ebdcbacked Yes | 71c | 595$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.45 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.6wins | +0.28per pick | 49cpaid | +100.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x252c…391abacked No | 29c | 593$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.03 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8697…4165backed Yes | 64c | 561$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.04 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0d…1683backed No | 39c | 559$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.99 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33e2…e1babacked No | 28c | 549$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.84 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad8…9756backed No | 54c | 549$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.54 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb214…a6aabacked No | 51c | 543$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.07 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7f…db83backed Yes | 61c | 538$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.18 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…0e2bbacked No | 57c | 537$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.91 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa756…b167backed No | 57c | 535$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.05 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4faa…fecfbacked Yes | 61c | 533$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.13 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2abd…74ebbacked No | 57c | 528$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.04 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…0d60backed Yes | 43c | 521$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.03 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11c6…e25ebacked Yes | 48c | 521$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.08 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf55…7d8abacked Yes | 43c | 515$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.45 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ad…990ebacked No | 48c | 509$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.68 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb1…c4e8backed No | 15c | 493$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.05 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +97.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4e3…5907backed Yes | 15c | 475$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6587…4f63backed No | 54c | 466$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.36 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +35%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…a152backed No | 28c | 466$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.52 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce65…66fdbacked No | 49c | 465$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.15 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97d1…b2efbacked Yes | 19c | 461$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.59 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9090backed Yes | 60c | 460$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6702…0051backed No | 28c | 453$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.16 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd29f…26b4backed Yes | 53c | 450$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.5 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc895…9bfabacked Yes | 53c | 447$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.91 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5969…5bedbacked Yes | 48c | 436.44$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3f…6e13backed No | 47c | 426$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.78 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3d…aa1abacked Yes | 76c | 425$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c07…956bbacked No | 54c | 422$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.12 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1db2…ebc2backed Yes | 61c | 413$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.93 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…db77backed Yes | 12c | 413$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82dd…5514backed No | 47c | 410$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.3 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.19per pick | 46cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x647e…88c8backed No | 36c | 402$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.28 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.3wins | +0.36per pick | 42cpaid | +199.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x43d5…2e11backed No | 54c | 397$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.62 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf8…c7afbacked Yes | 65c | 392$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.8 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…24f0backed No | 48c | 391$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.32 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59ad…e59abacked No | 47c | 390$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.7 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…7bd2backed No | 47c | 389$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.17 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x425a…78cbbacked Yes | 31c | 384$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.04 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…92cabacked No | 35c | 381$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.65 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x246f…0ab2backed Yes | 65c | 381$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.65 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…76c1backed Yes | 54c | 374$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.96 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x117f…088ebacked No | 46c | 374$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.96 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…75b7backed No | 69c | 370$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.7 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…35cabacked Yes | 72c | 364.67$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9818…7cd3backed Yes | 49c | 362$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.38 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x70d5…3a73backed No | 39c | 359$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.99 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.50per pick | 33cpaid | +243.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 21c | 354.66$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.48 | 186 | 7%13 W · 173 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3a…ca4cbacked Yes | 47c | 353$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.91 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82a7…afb5backed No | 53c | 353$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.91 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f91…d531backed Yes | 71c | 351$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.21 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7845…417bbacked Yes | 78c | 346.81$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.71 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -5.7wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd2…7a8cbacked Yes | 59c | 336.82$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91be…2641backed Yes | 15c | 336$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sergey Brin be 3rd richest person on March 31?this page
- Will Bernard Arnault be 3rd richest person on March 31?No won
- Will Jeff Bezos be 3rd richest person on March 31?Yes won
- Will Jensen Huang be 3rd richest person on March 31?No won
- Will Larry Ellison be 3rd richest person on March 31?No won
- Will Larry Page be 3rd richest person on March 31?No won
- Will Mark Zuckerberg be 3rd richest person on March 31?No won
- Will Steve Ballmer be 3rd richest person on March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.