TailMyPicks
Market

AI · resolved market

Will Sergey Brin be 3rd richest person on March 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$83,262
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$82,624

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,262 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 203 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf51b…bf74backed Yes43c2,255$970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$969.651942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+18.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e15…7ff5backed No57c2,029$1,157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$872.471947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+19.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d09…42b7backed No69c1,421$977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.48450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+103%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d4d…b46ebacked Yes51c1,398$713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$712.982231.8%7 W · 15 L-3.1wins-0.14per pick46cpaid-28.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0042…e62fbacked Yes72c1,370$986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$986.41457.1%8 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid+28.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c86…b75ebacked No49c1,220$598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$622.21656.3%9 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick41cpaid+96%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbe71…38d2backed Yes66c1,140$758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$757.9728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-47.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d2b…f025backed No24c1,086$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$825.36875%6 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+82.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9c2e…e025backed No29c1,078$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$769.892161.9%13 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+20.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe7fd…a3e1backed Yes46c1,073$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.581020%2 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-46%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x43c9…47c1backed Yes53c1,049$556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555.971258.3%7 W · 5 L+3.1wins+0.26per pick33cpaid+117%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x47eb…8195backed No39c996$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$607.561361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+34.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b74…93f7backed Yes52c948$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.962850%14 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22ec…4477backed No47c897$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475.41944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+35.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7086…f376backed Yes49c893$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$437.57742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+47.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfce1…9f9ebacked Yes46c888$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.48742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-26.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5be7…46eebacked Yes45c854$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.32035%7 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde45…8238backed No39c834$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508.74850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+40.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2a8…2a44backed Yes42c817$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.141050%5 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64c2…c527backed Yes42c794$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.481346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+34.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd08…bd74backed No58c790$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.81861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+25.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x45d3…53dcbacked Yes64c759$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.76955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick56cpaid+11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5cf…90e6backed No36c759$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$485.762934.5%10 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-30%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b45…836ebacked Yes59c752$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.181323.1%3 W · 10 L-4.2wins-0.32per pick55cpaid-67%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xb212…0f8ebacked No58c741$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.22837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8ae…bb88backed Yes26c724$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.242138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-25.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeab9…2ff1backed No74c724$536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.241457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+29.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ac7…dc0bbacked No39c719$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$438.591172.7%8 W · 3 L+3.7wins+0.33per pick40cpaid+126.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe8d5…1caebacked Yes61c704$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.442030%6 W · 14 L-3.5wins-0.18per pick48cpaid-41.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5214…95c9backed Yes46c686$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.561735.3%6 W · 11 L-3.2wins-0.19per pick54cpaid-29.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf6ef…095ebacked No40c684$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4112254.5%12 W · 10 L+3.5wins+0.16per pick39cpaid+58.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5aca…cad6backed Yes78c665$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.122142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-27.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f3e…f9d4backed No47c665$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.452853.6%15 W · 13 L+3.1wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+56.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0b4f…3b33backed No50c664$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.41560%9 W · 6 L+3.0wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+80.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9941…7fd9backed Yes76c661$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.36911.1%1 W · 8 L-3.9wins-0.44per pick55cpaid-85.2%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x2950…ffeabacked No47c659$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.272657.7%15 W · 11 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+33.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x964c…44acbacked No57c651$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.932152.4%11 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+19.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb83e…10fcbacked Yes15c645$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.75933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick39cpaid+22.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x036f…31a9backed No54c634$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.642147.6%10 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xee9e…efb7backed Yes12c634$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.08825%2 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-62.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe1c7…d291backed Yes53c621.85$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.461275%9 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+16.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x169a…55e4backed No35c618$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.71973.7%14 W · 5 L+5.0wins+0.26per pick47cpaid+84.2%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x0298…eadcbacked Yes53c617$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.01333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-47.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6560…e164backed Yes30c614.93$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.59040%36 W · 54 L+8.9wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+30.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9ae4…d837backed No55c609$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.05650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+18.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5e7…ebdcbacked Yes71c595$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.451376.9%10 W · 3 L+3.6wins+0.28per pick49cpaid+100.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x252c…391abacked No29c593$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.031154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8697…4165backed Yes64c561$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.041040%4 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f0d…1683backed No39c559$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.991241.7%5 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33e2…e1babacked No28c549$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.841338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ad8…9756backed No54c549$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.541127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-51.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb214…a6aabacked No51c543$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.07366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid+7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf7f…db83backed Yes61c538$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.181643.8%7 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-12.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d17…0e2bbacked No57c537$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.911266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+37.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa756…b167backed No57c535$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.05955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4faa…fecfbacked Yes61c533$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.131154.5%6 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid-15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2abd…74ebbacked No57c528$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.04966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+31.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b23…0d60backed Yes43c521$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.032040%8 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick45cpaid+35%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11c6…e25ebacked Yes48c521$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.081136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick45cpaid+17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf55…7d8abacked Yes43c515$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.452035%7 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick38cpaid+17.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26ad…990ebacked No48c509$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.682638.5%10 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-26.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdcb1…c4e8backed No15c493$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.051560%9 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+97.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc4e3…5907backed Yes15c475$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.25520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid+5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6587…4f63backed No54c466$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.361963.2%12 W · 7 L+3.0wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+35%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe9ea…a152backed No28c466$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.522339.1%9 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick41cpaid+6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce65…66fdbacked No49c465$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.151936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97d1…b2efbacked Yes19c461$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.591533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad90…9090backed Yes60c460$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2763336.4%12 W · 21 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6702…0051backed No28c453$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.162454.2%13 W · 11 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+93.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd29f…26b4backed Yes53c450$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.51457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+47.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc895…9bfabacked Yes53c447$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.911136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-25.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5969…5bedbacked Yes48c436.44$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.33333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-34.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa3f…6e13backed No47c426$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.78560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+21.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d3d…aa1abacked Yes76c425$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3231643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-5.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c07…956bbacked No54c422$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.12933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1db2…ebc2backed Yes61c413$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.931353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf06d…db77backed Yes12c413$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.561844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82dd…5514backed No47c410$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.31464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.19per pick46cpaid+53%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x647e…88c8backed No36c402$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.28977.8%7 W · 2 L+3.3wins+0.36per pick42cpaid+199.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x43d5…2e11backed No54c397$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.623345.5%15 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+27.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bf8…c7afbacked Yes65c392$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.81145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff74…24f0backed No48c391$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.32933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59ad…e59abacked No47c390$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.71838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-38.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc80…7bd2backed No47c389$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.171241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x425a…78cbbacked Yes31c384$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.04825%2 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-10%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6eac…92cabacked No35c381$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.651822.2%4 W · 14 L-3.9wins-0.21per pick44cpaid-34.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x246f…0ab2backed Yes65c381$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.65977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick57cpaid+38.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x848d…76c1backed Yes54c374$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.962540%10 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+18.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x117f…088ebacked No46c374$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.961741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick48cpaid+5.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8383…75b7backed No69c370$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.71560%9 W · 6 L+3.4wins+0.23per pick37cpaid+68.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1346…35cabacked Yes72c364.67$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.88250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-28.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9818…7cd3backed Yes49c362$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.381225%3 W · 9 L-3.4wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-57.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x70d5…3a73backed No39c359$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.99683.3%5 W · 1 L+3.0wins+0.50per pick33cpaid+243.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes21c354.66$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.481867%13 W · 173 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-50.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a3a…ca4cbacked Yes47c353$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.911662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+28.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x82a7…afb5backed No53c353$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.911464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.5wins+0.18per pick46cpaid+50.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9f91…d531backed Yes71c351$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.211020%2 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-49.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7845…417bbacked Yes78c346.81$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.714729.8%14 W · 33 L-5.7wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-53.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3fd2…7a8cbacked Yes59c336.82$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91be…2641backed Yes15c336$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.41127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-22%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.