AI · resolved market
Will Jeff Bezos be 3rd richest person on March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53d5effd9bfae6c12f957c5ee5debaf9f4bf076287f2f9ff808d95709b2856ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $222,508
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $221,475
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $222,508 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 139 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x552a…a6e5backed Yes | 25c | 69,911$17,478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52,433.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddae…33ccbacked No | 75c | 26,327$19,743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,743.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccb…d442backed No | 75c | 22,592$16,944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,944 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa3…1f6ebacked No | 75c | 20,992$15,744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,744 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6560…e164backed Yes | 46c | 1,741$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$939.12 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd8…757abacked Yes | 25c | 1,491$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,118.25 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4bc…5d9ebacked Yes | 14c | 1,443$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,240.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 27cpaid | +253%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6478…49f3backed Yes | 21c | 1,316$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,039.64 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5969…5bedbacked Yes | 51c | 1,188$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9778…1d7bbacked Yes | 25c | 957$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.75 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x611f…1f84backed Yes | 18c | 932$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.24 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x926a…3b1ebacked Yes | 15c | 917$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.45 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3acc…973dbacked Yes | 18c | 861$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.02 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 35cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e15…7ff5backed Yes | 18c | 859$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.38 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc911…fa2bbacked Yes | 25c | 846$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19cd…f7ffbacked Yes | 20c | 817$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$653.6 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8727…83d7backed Yes | 18c | 782$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f68…2238backed Yes | 22c | 767$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.26 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…92cabacked No | 79c | 734$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.53 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x97d1…b2efbacked Yes | 20c | 729$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.2 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a54…db64backed Yes | 18c | 729$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.78 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +130.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…15ddbacked No | 79c | 653$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.87 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +40%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c0…c4c9backed Yes | 14c | 651$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.86 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6f…deaebacked No | 75c | 630$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…3e88backed Yes | 17c | 610.59$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.79 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…75b7backed Yes | 11c | 596$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.44 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8f21…b935backed Yes | 79c | 557.66$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.67 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bc…2ad5backed Yes | 18c | 553$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.46 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x090c…3c25backed Yes | 18c | 533$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.06 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 46cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…6e2ebacked No | 75c | 531$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.25 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a5…d228backed No | 9c | 523.67$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.21 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 13cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ae…8598backed No | 80c | 512$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.6 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…0d60backed Yes | 12c | 509$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.92 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06c1…f1f2backed Yes | 18c | 507$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.74 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 40cpaid | +223.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60f4…d6debacked Yes | 23c | 499$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.23 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +85.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d24…a2e9backed No | 77c | 499$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.23 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1056…5b18backed Yes | 11c | 495$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.55 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed7…b0a5backed No | 75c | 494$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.5 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…7bd2backed Yes | 25c | 494$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ec…46cebacked Yes | 11c | 482$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.98 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad5…6f41backed No | 75c | 479$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.25 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce55…c888backed Yes | 25c | 479$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.25 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.6wins | +0.26per pick | 46cpaid | +76.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…bd71backed Yes | 26c | 477$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.98 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x628e…4580backed No | 74c | 477$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.98 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e08…7e2ebacked Yes | 19c | 467$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +426.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6578…ba32backed No | 80c | 451$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.8 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f5c…91bfbacked No | 79c | 447$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.13 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +31%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd1…2bb3backed Yes | 18c | 429$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.78 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb767…9b51backed Yes | 17c | 426$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.58 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 20c | 420.22$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.98 | 53 | 20.8%11 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d09…42b7backed No | 75c | 415$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +103%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf8…0657backed No | 78c | 407$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.46 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x646f…23c3backed Yes | 22c | 407$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.46 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26ad…990ebacked No | 75c | 406$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.5 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x409a…4e8fbacked Yes | 14c | 380$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…ac22backed Yes | 18c | 371$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.22 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcae4…ccecbacked Yes | 19c | 366$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.46 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d7…8c45backed No | 75c | 365$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.75 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccc2…271abacked Yes | 19c | 364$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.84 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc362…7f4fbacked Yes | 21c | 361$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.19 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c47…e9bebacked Yes | 30c | 359.02$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d2…3e62backed Yes | 20c | 358$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a5…b42cbacked No | 80c | 358$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.4 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef37…f2bcbacked Yes | 15c | 357$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.45 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.18per pick | 41cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd5e7…ebdcbacked Yes | 18c | 341$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.62 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.6wins | +0.28per pick | 49cpaid | +100.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa457…1a93backed No | 75c | 327$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.25 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 30c | 323.37$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.13 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x673d…e929backed Yes | 15c | 321$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.85 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c51…a829backed Yes | 18c | 319$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.58 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c3…9cefbacked Yes | 18c | 319$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.58 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…52c4backed No | 79c | 316.99$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c8…43b1backed Yes | 21c | 316.99$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…2393backed No | 75c | 315$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.25 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…bf21backed Yes | 19c | 294$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.14 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…e560backed Yes | 49c | 279.23$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.64 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc04c…44ffbacked No | 78c | 266$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.48 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +91.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14c1…6512backed No | 80c | 264$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf48…6f13backed Yes | 14c | 256.28$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.4 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a37…141abacked No | 78c | 252$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.56 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d9d…a002backed Yes | 18c | 249$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.18 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +31%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b9…d0c7backed No | 78c | 249$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.22 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb593…28eabacked Yes | 15c | 243$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.55 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…b75ebacked Yes | 14c | 239$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.54 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +96%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e3e…6b65backed Yes | 20c | 230$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf977…aff0backed Yes | 14c | 224$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.64 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +5.4wins | +0.30per pick | 31cpaid | +144.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa1…eb3abacked No | 79c | 216$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.64 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 51c | 204.32$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.96 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d5…1caebacked No | 79c | 203$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.37 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 199.64$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.2 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02f8…6c22backed Yes | 11c | 199$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.11 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.26per pick | 36cpaid | +110.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…5339backed No | 80c | 196$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.8 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59d7…0217backed No | 80c | 186$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.8 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -4.3wins | -0.30per pick | 45cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf769…0114backed Yes | 22c | 169.36$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.57 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15f7…a018backed Yes | 53c | 168.62$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.64 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 59c | 158.44$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.75 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffa1…15bdbacked No | 79c | 158$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.82 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9f…ee38backed Yes | 17c | 153$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.99 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 66c | 151.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.03 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48ed…3a1ebacked Yes | 63c | 149.15$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f0…f05fbacked Yes | 14c | 146$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.56 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +146.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jeff Bezos be 3rd richest person on March 31?this page
- Will Bernard Arnault be 3rd richest person on March 31?No won
- Will Jensen Huang be 3rd richest person on March 31?No won
- Will Larry Ellison be 3rd richest person on March 31?No won
- Will Larry Page be 3rd richest person on March 31?No won
- Will Mark Zuckerberg be 3rd richest person on March 31?No won
- Will Sergey Brin be 3rd richest person on March 31?No won
- Will Steve Ballmer be 3rd richest person on March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.