TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x02f8…6c22

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
78
Categories scored
20
Categories below 50
12

Best Category: AI, grading 61 out of 100 (+0.10 per pick).

Best Category AI at 61 out of 100; worst Music at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 4, 2026, EDT1662.5%10 W · 6 L+4.2wins+0.26per pick36cpaid+110.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
AI — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.5
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$245Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$65.1
Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$353Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$352.92
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.35
Will Google Gemini score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.17
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.64
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$375Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+157.4%+$590.75
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.10 (LOW) by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$103Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+37%+$38.07
Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$365Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$275.2
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$9.8
Will Jeff Bezos be 3rd richest person on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+809.1%+$177.11
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.55
Will "Iran" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$175Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+354.5%+$620.88
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+566.7%+$80.75
Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$133Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST+203%+$270.68
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 30% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$276Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+42.9%+$118.2
All 16 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+20.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$8.19
Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$338Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$254.99
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 30+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$587Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$587.25
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 58% and 59%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$59.68
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the second most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+334.8%+$157.08
Will Rastriya Swatantra Party win the most seats in the Nepal House of Representatives election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$198Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$102
Will Keir Starmer say "Affordable" or "Affordability" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$141Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+96.1%+$135.24
Will Keir Starmer say "Constructive" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$96.96
Will Keir Starmer say "Ally" or "Allied" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$303Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$303.3
All 9 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick41cpaid+76.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid+10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-41.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-71%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Music — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+106.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Blackburn Beavers vs. Eastern Illinois Panthersbacked Eastern Illinois Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$405Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+43.1%+$174.58
North Carolina Central Eagles vs. South Carolina State Bulldogs (W)backed North Carolina Central Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$141Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+376.2%+$530.88
Texas Longhorns vs. Arkansas Razorbacks (W)backed Arkansas Razorbacks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$21.31
All 3 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Asian League Inactivelast resolved Apr 17, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Asian League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 24, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 26, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Borussia Dortmund advance to the round of 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST+525%+$298.2
Will Benfica advance to the round of 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$202Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$202.07
All 2 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Feb 18, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Villarreal CF (-1.5)backed Villarreal CF · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$25.52
Levante UD vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$574Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+47.1%+$270.08
All 2 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Houthis successfully target shipping by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$197Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$65.75
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Montenegro win on 2026-03-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$80.41
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Powell say "Simulation" during March press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$104.76
All 1 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Mar 5, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Aberdeen FC vs. Celtic FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$38.85
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Feb 27, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Cam Spencer: Assists Over 8.5backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$32.34
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 11, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Christian Menefee win the Texas House special election runoff by 15% or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$115.39
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will BetBoom Team qualify to IEM Cologne Major 2026? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$91
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.