Weather · resolved market
Will there be at least 1,150 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc269807ea22208a54ce76a08a17db67235a25023767d1ae9389b65bee6175703
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $189,370
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $180,589
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $189,370 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 139 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1bfc…98e0backed Yes | 0c | 25,200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc2…1e51backed Yes | 11c | 23,780$2,679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,679 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfca5…e2e4backed Yes | 1c | 6,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 5,985$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…8c8ebacked No | 69c | 5,030$3,495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,534.68 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 12c | 3,651$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.78 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…f495backed Yes | 0c | 3,533$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f04…645abacked Yes | 1c | 3,459$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68f7…eedbbacked Yes | 0c | 3,256$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x285b…f3d3backed Yes | 0c | 3,007$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed Yes | 12c | 2,077$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.91 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.53per pick | 22cpaid | +237.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x535e…ccd9backed No | 73c | 1,723$1,249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.69 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37aa…01f4backed Yes | 1c | 1,622$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 14cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…dde3backed Yes | 1c | 1,581$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48a5…0f2dbacked Yes | 13c | 1,273$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -24%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a6…dc57backed Yes | 24c | 1,236$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.31per pick | 45cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 7c | 1,216$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.54 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x126f…eeaabacked Yes | 77c | 1,173$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed No | 74c | 1,152$856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.35 | 93 | 30.1%28 W · 65 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae6…a9ffbacked Yes | 1c | 1,123$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47f9…ebb8backed Yes | 39c | 1,079$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.73 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked No | 68c | 969.61$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.97 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed No | 76c | 892.14$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.25 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…bd7abacked Yes | 67c | 746.27$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x646f…23c3backed Yes | 62c | 695$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.9 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f3…be1dbacked No | 35c | 690$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +120.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f61…c03ebacked Yes | 60c | 686$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.6 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3684…9669backed Yes | 62c | 680$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc362…7f4fbacked No | 25c | 661$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.75 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…293cbacked Yes | 38c | 657$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.66 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa22e…109cbacked Yes | 75c | 639$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.25 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 39cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 632.87$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.07 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | +62%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9778…1d7bbacked No | 38c | 622$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.64 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc2…40d7backed Yes | 75c | 601$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.75 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 6c | 598.08$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb00b…fbcabacked No | 40c | 590$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb28…74f4backed No | 40c | 568$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.8 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 59c | 566.52$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.75 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd07…0058backed Yes | 60c | 562$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.2 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f8…6c22backed No | 25c | 560$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ece…35e8backed Yes | 67c | 550$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.5 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 36cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…ec83backed Yes | 56c | 518.63$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.41 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc336…9f48backed No | 26c | 505$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.7 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 47cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae1…92f2backed Yes | 6c | 491.93$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc319…6baabacked Yes | 65c | 485$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 74c | 482.08$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.98 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7155…d866backed No | 33c | 470$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.9 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe07c…1307backed No | 62c | 459$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.42 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 26c | 452.76$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.68 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +8.3wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +102.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked No | 45c | 444.63$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcde9…d705backed Yes | 74c | 442$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.08 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.31per pick | 53cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…c913backed Yes | 75c | 417$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.75 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2f…a8aabacked No | 62c | 392$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.96 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7635…9ae0backed Yes | 60c | 388$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.8 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 14c | 388$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.52 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked No | 50c | 386.91$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.85 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcae4…ccecbacked No | 38c | 373$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.26 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +114.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4061…f5ebbacked No | 40c | 362$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.2 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.27per pick | 35cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb132…6943backed No | 25c | 360$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x878d…1a9bbacked Yes | 42c | 328$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.14 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce25…4e7dbacked No | 38c | 322$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.64 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 50c | 302.33$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.54 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0cb…ab6abacked No | 40c | 301$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.6 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcac9…200bbacked No | 59c | 300.9$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0016…1b7abacked Yes | 74c | 293$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.82 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 7c | 287.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecb6…cfe8backed Yes | 67c | 286$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.62 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fec…be3dbacked No | 50c | 281.91$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.91 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f46…01b1backed Yes | 60c | 277$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.2 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 16c | 276.25$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.28 | 84 | 10.7%9 W · 75 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Yes | 73c | 270$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd0…11dbbacked No | 63c | 263.89$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.51 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 72c | 250.75$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.2 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe362…602bbacked Yes | 43c | 250$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74b8…0c87backed Yes | 38c | 242$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.96 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff5d…4e58backed No | 26c | 230$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.2 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb547…a237backed No | 33c | 217$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.39 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 7c | 214.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd68…cdd3backed No | 33c | 213$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.71 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7da6…4ff3backed Yes | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed No | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 35cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf1…0089backed Yes | 65c | 194.06$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…a219backed Yes | 8c | 184.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b5…fa78backed Yes | 58c | 178.75$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed Yes | 42c | 175$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac82…1647backed Yes | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f93…f7c0backed Yes | 24c | 150$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc154…04b2backed Yes | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…115ebacked Yes | 60c | 142$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.2 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90b9…1951backed Yes | 51c | 136.56$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.61 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb023…6d90backed No | 25c | 136$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…63b6backed No | 40c | 135$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9279…9ca7backed Yes | 60c | 135$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 47cpaid | -63%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb372…2048backed Yes | 9c | 126.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62bd…3dfbbacked Yes | 8c | 119.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 16c | 119.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x465c…6e53backed Yes | 65c | 118$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.7 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 48c | 107$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.46 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49b1…0f4dbacked Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be at least 1,150 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?this page
- Will there be at least 1,000 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 1,050 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 1,100 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 1,200 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 1,250 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 1,300 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 800 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.