Weather · resolved market
Will there be at least 1,300 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba426661619539ebd0db78f28b4fb2981b69d63418c9fcaee78a5e235fdf9f68
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,348
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,109
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,348 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 2,003$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 52 | 5.8%3 W · 49 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | -43%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47f9…ebb8backed Yes | 7c | 1,963$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 2c | 1,294$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff7…a220backed Yes | 15c | 1,079$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.85 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…a219backed Yes | 3c | 1,071$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.82 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a6…dc57backed Yes | 19c | 1,044$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.31per pick | 45cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 851.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c65…5ad5backed Yes | 11c | 731$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.68 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0956…9aa4backed Yes | 15c | 709$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.35 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 699.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | +62%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked Yes | 8c | 688.9$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.11 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x130f…6e99backed Yes | 7c | 571.08$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…37b5backed Yes | 2c | 491.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fcc…8ef0backed Yes | 15c | 477$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.55 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…bd7abacked Yes | 5c | 461.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8212…5933backed Yes | 6c | 439.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc043…eb1bbacked No | 77c | 369.54$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a04…2310backed Yes | 5c | 356.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +67%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3052…9732backed Yes | 7c | 350$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacb1…6de8backed Yes | 15c | 332$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 5c | 244.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x932f…2cd8backed Yes | 5c | 204.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…f66fbacked Yes | 11c | 189.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 135 | 42.2%57 W · 78 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x968f…a539backed Yes | 15c | 185$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7402…3ac2backed Yes | 17c | 150$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce25…4e7dbacked Yes | 15c | 142$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…178fbacked Yes | 14c | 107.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be at least 1,300 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?this page
- Will there be at least 1,000 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 1,050 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 1,100 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- Will there be at least 1,150 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 1,200 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 1,250 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?No won
- Will there be at least 800 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.